Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, June 10, 2024

Quiet in Tropics BUT Lots of Tropical Moisture Funneled Into FL - Miami Weather/Hurricane History.... Building Booms Every Century... Roaring 20s & The Big Blow

Nothing happening for 7 days!
According to the NHC.

Next 5 days.
Florida Rains reign as the big story.
Nothing forming, but lots of weather.
Euro Rain Accu. on
Below things change.

Check that out ..X marks the spot.
Moisture from the EPAC surges into BOC.
So Tx/La and S FL gets lots of rain.

Special Bonus in the blog today.
Check out very long range models...
...for Bay of Campeche...

EURO week from Wednesday!
Ain't that cute.
A lil Mini Cane!!
GFS sees nothing.

Only reason I'm including this today is because this is about as perfect as it gets for CLIMO as often the season starts with what I call a sacrificial little system that curves into Mexico from the BOC. Typical set up and plausible that something in that region may get us watching that area. The EPAC moisture often finds it's way into our part of the basin and ends up cuddled up down there in the curve of the Yuctan creating a fast lived little named storm. It's more plausible than a kick ass tropical wave off of Africa making it across the basin and slamming into Galveston or Miami in June when we normally watch the Big Bend of Florida for something that began down by the Yucatan.  Keep it in mind, long range and just being hinted at my long range models. Personally I'm not sure what I'm making for dinner tonight in 5 hours so this is just something to keep in mind that it could happen. 

Even today you can see this on the  Mimic.
The Mimic often gives us clues to the flow.
Note the little hook to the left by Yucatan.
Most the moisture will go up across FL.
And, this is connected to the EPAC rain.

Below is our current satellite imager.

Nothing organized.
But there is moisture moving up from Carib.

Time will tell.
Keep watching.

IF you are interested in Miami Hurricane History...
..and just how and why it often floods in Miami.
Keep reading.

To understand Miami's problems.
South Florida's problems.
You have to look up the road.

From the Kississimee River ...
...down to The Lake.
And from the Lake... naturally drained down into Florida Bay.
South Florida being in the way... 
..on any given day.
I'll leave the link to this article below.

This is what Florida used to look like.
Marsh, loc outnry, little islands of trees.
Swamps aka River of Grass.

Urban development and it doesn't drain properly, hat's what the girl on the TWC said. Actually she's a meteorologist, but that previous line sounded like a line in a song but she is correct. Miami is literally at ground level and there has been urban development beyond the wildest dreams of the early city founders who found it to be a good place to go if you had asthma or tuberculosis and needed to escape the bitter cold of Northern cities in the Winter. Mind you no one lived there year round without air conditioning unless they were running from the law or enjoyed 90% humidity all summer. It was a swamp, from coast to coast it was a swamp and along the Eastern edge of the peninsular there was this beautiful little sliver of a sandy beach.

Someone decided they could import coconut trees and make a coconut plantation on the sandbar, after they cleared whatever vegetation there was and they'd make a mighty profit on the coconuts. It didn't work out well as the local critters foraged up many of the nuts and some floated away on a strong tide. But, what you see today are the remnants of that dream of a coconut plantation and the ones the city government regularly plants to keep it looking like a tropical paradise. 

It's a beautiful city that was built after they drained paradise and put up parking lots and stores and homes and businesses and there's just so much asphalt and constant construction going on and downtown especially the construction sand and dust takes flight in the wind and clogs up the drains when it rains. But the bridge will be beautiful once it's done.

The new signature bridge will be done in late 2027.

It looks like this currently.
Okay it looked like this recently.
Blocks and blocks of this.... the edge of Biscayne Bay.

This has created problems for drivers...
...but there's a YouTube.

Watch and enjoy.

This was Miami's Flagship Hotel. 
In the middle of downtown Miami.
Lots of wide open spaces.
Miami River is behind the hotel.

Color Pic...Bay to the East.
River to the South.

This is what it looks like today.

Literally paved over paradise.
And, yet it sttill look alike paradise.
But densely populated and lots of concrete.
Concrete absorbs heat.
But there's a breeze off the bay.
Note this area above does not flood.
More on that later.

I love it. How can you not?
My picture titled "I'm home"

Again it is a very densely populated place.
Urban development and it doesn't drain well.

I'll be honest, I spend a lot of time down in the Brickell section of Miami as my two youngest kids live at the edge of the river and the bay, in a beautiful highrise with awesome views and we can walk over to the Whole Foods get a snack or some vitamins or beautiful flowers and or sit and talk to my brother who lives not far from there as well while sipping some healthy drink.

Miami is beautiful. Miami is expensive. It's a construction maze with two of their most used expressways underconstruction with traffic rerouted in circles, though the locals know the back streets to take.  The breeze blows endlessly from the bay the breeze makes it about a mile or so inland before the breeze stops and it just feels beastly hot. When it rains the drains are clogged, and even if the drains were working great there's not many places it can go if it rains too heavy, too fast and for too long. Eventually the water drains off into the bay downtown and out in the suburbs it drains down through the coral rock into the Biscayne Acquifier and you can Google that. And, as much as people talk on Sea Level Rise but the truth is no one wants to understand and accept they paved paradise and over developed it wildly and while it's become normal.... it's hard to put that many people and constant construction into one small area and expect it to handle that much water ..... the ground is trying but even as a kid growing up there were always places that flooded, but now days it floods more and people build up higher than they used to as homes are built with the ongoing problem in mind. But as much as sea level rise is an issue, it's also an issue when you take an area that was never meant to hold that much density.

That said it's all beautiful when the sunshines and you can see the bay glittering in the distance ..

If a hurricane hits Miami, and I mean a real hurricane... a Cat 4 or Cat 5 it's going to be a tropical tragedy of epic proportions. Sad to say that, but it's a reality that no one wants to deal with and a large part of the population is new to the area and they have never been through a real hurricane. So below are two videos showing the 1926 Hurricane with old videos, newsreels and commentary. 

Short version below, to give you a feel for what the flappers and such in the 1920s had to deal with during and after the 1926 Hurricane. 

Long version if you love the Roaring 20s like I do... get some popcorn and sit a while, you'll love it.

Lastly, if you live in a home that was built for a strong hurricane you will most likely be okay, if you have shutters and supplies and a generator or a ticket out of town with a friend that's staying who will check on your home and honestly this could be the longest run on sentence I've ever written because it's an unknown as Miami proper, downtown, Brickell has not been hit by a large Category 4 hurricane since 1926 over a hundred years ago. Make sure trees are trimmed away from the house and windows that will be boarded up but you dont' want a tall avocado tree falling on your roof!  And, of course when I say "survive a hurricane" I'm talking far inland away from storm surge. 

The population during the 1920s building boom was "well over 100,000" people in the general area...most I'll add lived there in the Winter unless they were employed on said building boom. Today way over 2 million people live in downtown Miami and closer to 6 million people who live in the general Miami Metro being Miami and everyone who lives in nearby suburbs.

And everyone is squeezed together ...
...because it's all on the edge of the Everglades.
A natural beautiful swampy paradise.
If you like swamps...

The way it used to be below.

Please check out his work.
Get a feel for the real South Florida.
Before the various building booms.

Without AC Miami is miserable and after a Category 5 Hurricane Andrew that hit down in the suburbs in Homestead it was messy, miserable and we had no electric for almost two weeks at least. My whole large family moved into a one room cottage behind a friend's house that had a huge generator. After a week there I moved out back into the house to be honest and luckily the lineman came soon after that and hooked us back up to electrical power. The street signs were all gone, the traffic lights were all gone on Miami Beach that took a strong hit before it dipped South before slamming into Miami and trees were down everywhere and debris that got wet was drying out everywhere in huge moats of debris that stunk rotting in the hot sunshine. Slowly, day by day, week by week things got back to normal and I'm talking in the parts of Miami that took a small hit like we did vs the total devastation in small, not so well built communities in the Homestead area. 

Post Andrew brought another building boom as people fixed up their homes with insurance money adding pools and or additions and some tore down the homes and built bigger better homes. The roads were clogged with trucks of all kinds rebuilding, building and carrying building supplies. Areas not fancy became fancy, people took money anan up the ways towards Broward County and new communities became trendy and the cost of the real estate goes up and up and up.

So if you want to live in Miami, do a home. Buy a house, a condo and make sure it has windows for a Category 5 hurricane  (if not change them) and good shutters and trust me no matter if there's a hurricane or not the value of your property will go up as that's the way of the world in Miami, the Magical City at the edge of Biscayne Bay with the Atlantic Ocean near by and the Florida Keys just a couple of hours away. 

But if you are not prepared the way we were prepared before Andrew you will be standing online for food and water. 

Hurricane it now. Trust me. Hopefully no hurricane will hit and you'll tell me in December, "see, told you nothing was gonna happen" and I'll smile thankfully, because I truly love Miami. 

I also love the home is where the heart is or my mood on any given day.
But if you live in Miami remember the University of Miami's football teams is the Hurricanes! 
At some point if you live there you will see a hurricane slide by, rip the screens off your pool patio and you'll say "it could have been worse" or it'll take down your loved poinciana tree and you'll say "could have been worse" and one day........the worse case scenario will happen as it's only a matter of time.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Link to article mentioned above.

Old video, it's been built up lots more since then.

or new school Miami 


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