Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, October 07, 2022

5PM Tropical Storm Julia Forms! Forecast by NHC to be a Hurricane Before Landfall. Serious Flash Flooding Threat in Hilly and Mountainous areas. October Storms...

Julia is putting on a show tonight... she consolidates and intensifies some.

Cone still the same...

5 PM.
Not much to add here.
Most logically it could go into the Pacific.
Low westbound...
...main message is concern on flooding.
NHC posted that with the 5 PM.


Hope and pray this is not a horrible flooding event and it moves fast towards the Pacific and no piece of enegy gets into the Bay of Campeche and we all have a bit of a rest! But as I said the season isn't over just because people wish Hurricane Season would go away. It doesn't work that way. But you all can try....

I'll update Saturday evening. Have a good weekend! Stay safe and as always donate to the relief for Hurricane Ian ... keep reading if you didn't finish as everything that needs to be said I said earlier today.

Looks a bit like a pink alien there.
But note all the moisture headed inland already
out ahead of Julia.


Tropical Storm Julia.

There's Julia with the lay of the land.
That she's moving towards...

Infamous cone with the advisory.
Center of the Cone track line.
Also warning weather happens outside the Cone.

I went to the chiropractor for a tune up and did a fast shopping at the grocery and I figured NHC would upgrade it while I was out but sometimes you just have to do what you have to do. And, this is fairly straightforward of a forecast, though there is always one element of surprise be it forward speed or intensity. Either way it is moving West under a strong area of High Pressure with some light NNW shear. The image below shows that despite the ease of the forecast there is a lot going on near by and yet if you look at the Mimic shown way below you'll see everything is moving Westbound.

Julia in the bottom left corner.

If you loop the loops below you will see what I  mean and understand the current forecast from the NHC. As Julia moves away from land, over warmer water it will intensity and is still forecast to become a Hurricane as it approaches landfall. Flash floods in that region are always an issues. What most people don't remember from Hurricane Mitch that intensified in this region is that the horrific loss of life due to flash floods was not from Major Hurricane Mitch, but from a stalled Tropical Storm Mitch that just rained itself out over the local population destroying lives, villages and creating a horrible disaster. Yes, it has been a huge Major Hurricane but again it's about terrain and terrain plus rain = flash flooding.   I hope not, but it's a concern. 

The Mimic loop measures moisture and it's shown on the image below as deep reds, corals, orange and sometimes fuchsia vs blues that represent drier air. You can see how much moisture (rain) is moving towards landfall with Julia.

Use the link above to see the strong flow West towards landfall. Note the blues (dry high pressure) to the North protecing Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Know though that this "protection" is only the current set up and not for the rest of the Hurricane Season. It is very possible, hate to tell you that, and another system can form somewhat closer in and still be a threat to make landfall; probably more so Eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Coastline would be impacted but that's way too far down the line to know for sure. This is not said based on long term modeling but the pattern and climatology for this coming October later down the road. Again, fronts up the ante for landfalls from down below and at the same time systems form off the SE coast and Mid Atlantic Coast often and we always hope a cold front shows up and grabs them and takes them out to sea. 

I'll update later this afternoon, 
As always thanks for reading and your patience ... 
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever

Ps... Remember as much as we hate to see landfalling hurricanes, tropical systems often nourish late season crops that need the rain. The rain from Ian in North Carolina erased the drought and apparently nourished the soy beans that needed rain. And, they help transport energy from the tropics to the poles and late in October they help flip the switch to Autumn and Winter from hot weather and Indian Summers when the temperatures creep back up near the 80s and everyone wants winter weather. 


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