Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, July 28, 2019

Updated Invest 95L !!! Yellow circle with 20% chances Tropics ... A Look at the Tropics Today and in Ten Days or So... End of August Look Out.

Still holding at 20% chances over the next 5 days.
This is not a Cone it's a Zone where formation could occur.
I have to remind people as it's often misunderstood.

Note the chances over the next two days are 10%
Note that could change......
The reason they rise over the 5 day is obvious.
Conditions improve closer to Florida ... North of Cuba.

It's a wave.
It's not developed.
It flares up.
It wanes.
It flares up.
Cyclical behavior.
A bit of a pocket for it to breathe.
Shear is expected to increase over the next few days.

There's the islands of Cuba and Hispaniola. 
They are Florida's wind break...
But once over the warm Florida Straits.
It can intensify if it's still a designated system.
Storms in late July are iffy but not improbable.

If this had an eye we'd be nervous.
For now it's a wave and it's waving at Florida.
Cuba, Hispaniola and PR and the Virgin Islands.
The Bahamas are down the road.

For now we watch.
While watching keep an eye on the new waves exiting Africa.

There is dry air via SAL still.
There is very warm water.

Warm water temps on the left. Sal on the right.


Time will tell.

I'll update tomorrow after 8 AM

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Insgram.

8 PM update.

Invest 95L was just introduced suddenly 
Seems the NHC is taking this seriously. 
As we’ve been saying those waves had potential 
Read previous blogs & Tweets 

Expect it to go up in value soon. 
Not sure on long term chances. 
If it was a stock I’d bite perhaps 

Stay tuned. 
Please read the rest of the blog if u haven’t 
All relevant. 

I’m Northbound back to NC
Updating as things change. 
Been changing all day...

A yellow circle popped up at 2PM 
20% chances of development in the 5 day. 
First yellow circle in Carib from a wave.
Check out graphics. 
Yellow area for formation ends over South Florida. 
Miami. Broward. WPB

Things change fast in the tropics as August gets closer. 
Think of it as a long skirt...
...cut down to a mini skirt. 
Continue reading the blog to understand that. 
This is one of those waves I’ve been watching. 
People say it has no model support. 
Then suddenly it does. 

Look what popped up. Some cute wave that caught our eye that had no model support now caught the models attention. Long shot but something to watched. Check models on and graphics at NHC website. On the road. I’ll update in depth tonight. 

Why we always watch patterns and weather 
Eventually models jump on board. 

See how fast things change?
Never get complacent!

Excuse any typos on the road traveling 
Compare and contrast from NHC at 8 AM. 

Officially nothing expected to form.
But there's always something out there that could.
Keep reading and it will all make sense.....

Kind of a mixed bag today of feelings. Looking forward to going home and getting back on a regular routine and sad to say goodbye to family here where I've been in South Florida the last two weeks. Always hard to have two lovers and of late I love both Florida and Carolina, though it's obvious I'm a Florida girl wherever I go on the tropical road. So taking stock of my belongings strewn across my daughter's room while packing and deciding which things to leave her and which things to leave here for me to have for the next trip back down. Somethings are better for her to wear to work, as I don't work out of the house and I love giving her things. Kind of that simple...  She actually gives me things too as we are the same size despite her having better shoulders and a bit longer of a waist. Being a mother I actually buy things in Raleigh figuring I'll wear them a while and give them to Rivky. If something doesn't work for Rivky I seem to end up with it.

And you are wondering what does this have to do with the tropics?

It's kind of a mixed bag of weather possibilities in the tropics while an over whelming huge, high pressure system kind of sucks all the life out of the tropics. Here and there some random wave gets away and finds a home somewhere else along the coast and turns into a small homegrown storm. One wave starts out over Africa and for a few days it wears well in the MDR but as it gets further West it decides to lay low down near the coast of South America and wonders on going to Mexico. Sometimes the north part of a wave manages to sneak trough the dry air, subsidence and shear and flare up near the coast of Florida as if it's some pirate ship looking to put into port in a cove near the Bahamas or near some beach outside of Jacksonville. No wave seems to have a specific destination and leftover convection once worn as a strong trough trashing the East Coast lingering off of Florida may get reborn into a new quasi storm struggling to find a center and be reinvented the way a cute skirt at a thrift shop finds a new home eventually.

When a tropical wave rolls off of Africa in late August and the dry air, shear is gone and possibly a MJO was in the vicinity it is as strong as an afternoon thunderstorm in Miami and clouds climb high into the sky, rotation is there from the start and upon it's exit from Africa it brings down a plane or a ship and creates a commotion on day one. Hurricane Donna began in such a fashion and it's an excellent example of a well developed tropical storm at the right time, at the right place following a track that would take it up over the islands so it's first chance to make landfall was the Florida Keys. With a destination in mind it rolled up the West Coast of Florida and then back again out into the Atlantic where it cruised on up the East Coast destroying beach homes in North Carolina and smashing into Long Island that for some reason just juts out into the Atlantic saying "hit me, go for it" and many a hurricane is held to that bar that Donna set in 1960. Many hurricanes could do that track but few do the exact track but every time there's a Sandy or an Irma people remember Donna.

Hurricane Donna was so cool........ was one of the 1st Canes to get it's own Selfie!

When hurricane geeks freak out over fantasy hurricanes.
Hurricane Donna often shows up first.

The wave that would soon become Donna rolled off of the Islands near Africa on August 29, 1960 bringing down with it a plane and creating a rain storm many would remember for years to come.  It's a good read and Donna set the bar as I said for CV Hurricanes that flirted with the Islands, flirted with Cuba but decided to do Florida first. My grandmother who was conceived in Key West, raised in Tampa and lived in Miami eventually was most fearful of those hurricanes that trace the High and come up over the islands before smashing into South Florida. She did have some experience and was definitely right. Many storms hit the islands first, take on Hispaniola and crawl up over Cuba as Cleo did and when they hit South Florida they were a meager leftover beginning to fray but still having some life left to it. Hurricane Donna and the Great Miami Hurricane both went up over the islands so giving Grandma Mary her due here - - - that woman could look up at the sky and know exactly when it was going to begin raining without an APP and not needing social media!

So where does this leave us now?  Let's take a look at the loop.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Note the convection off the SE coast. Waves moving West.

There's still shear at the entrance to the Caribbean.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

Why do I talk on Donna?
I'm in Miami ...duh.
And seriously.......
When you have active frontal systems all summer.
And then they die out around North Florida.
It raises the chance of hurricanes doing the coast.
Somewhere between where the High ends.
And the fronts begin.
Is where you'll find hurricanes turn North.
All hurricanes at some point try to turn North.
Sometimes a huge high prevents them but they try.

Where frontal boundaries decay and end up at the thrift shop.
They may get repurposed into a new system.
It's a very green, organic process.

Watch either side of Florida.
Close in for now.
Watch Africa for down the road.

Hurricane Donna is like that incredible prom dress you buy to wear on a date with what seems to be the love of your life and that dress will remain in your memory forever; the pictures scattered through albums and boxes that you take with you back and forth in your travels. You remember it the way you remember the roar of the wind as a hurricane pounded your childhood home, both scared and incredibly alive and excited at the majesty of the hurricane wind that howls through the night.  Those other subtropicals and storms such as Barry that are questionable are cute outfits you bought randomly while restlessly wandering through Macys and that end up in your sister's closet or passed on to your daughter who might enjoy it more one day.

You learn a lot from tracking hurricanes. You start out young recording details in diaries and scribbling coordinates on scraps of paper and eventually having ten windows open on your laptop because you are watching it from every angle and you need to compare the visible with the water vapor loop. You study hurricane history as if it's fashion history and you holistically almost become one with that one wave you know will develop and need to be monitored more carefully and then you wait to see a core form and an eye develop and you know now is the time as we are in prime time and no more quasi storms of a questionable nature. And then things ramp up and your week is a blur of images, loops and models. We are not there yet but we can feel it in the tropical air and we are waiting.

As always I direct you do doing your hurricane preparation now and hoping you don't need it later. Any hurricane supplies can be donated to a shelter of some kind or a food bank that will be happy to have all your granola bars and canned vegetables. 

As for me I'm about to leave the city of my birth and travel North along a road that many hurricanes have followed to a place where hurricanes often make landfall. I'll update when something happens but for now it's the old two step of the two day and the five day both saying "nothing happening for now" but as the NHC always reminds you prepare while you can for hurricane season and make sure your insurance is up to date as once a hurricane is close by it's too late for you to get all your insurance in place!

Someone, somewhere is always watching.
Some prepare just in case....
...others wait til the eye is up close.

Til then there's a video the NHC put up that's worth watching as people seem to argue over what the Cone means and as it's made at the NHC and it's their product they are the last word in how to use it. I put it here as it needs some help and perhaps you can watch it and share it with others. I know local on air mets often explain it differently and I've heard people who worked at the NHC explain it a different way and it's intuitively a problem and open it seems to much different interpretation based on your own experience. Sometimes it's confusing and I do believe that's why so many listen to Mike as a hurricane forms out in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico headed towards what seems an obvious landfall as he explains how to use models, what to look for based on what the NHC is saying and his own gut and he calms people giving them information. On any given day over 2,000 people listen to his daily update yet only 20,000 people have watched this video directly from the source. It's kind of odd and perhaps they need to get on air mets who often describe it differently to start sharing the info.

Always good to know what NHC says.

As for me I'll be watching that Seminole Wind.
And watching loops and twitter feeds.
Playing with the models.
Do we get another Donna or Hugo?
Or do we get Hazel or Edna?
1938 Hurricane or....
...the 2019 Hurricane that we will look back on someday.
Which storm will be the one you remember?
The Gloria or Hugo?

Stay centered.
Have fun.
Share the love.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for quick updates.

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