Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, July 22, 2019

11 PM Weak TD3 ... Just Offshore SFL. What Will Happen Tomorrow??? Time Will Tell. Keep Watching the Wave Train and Following the Weather


From Earthnull clear how close the "center" is to FL
"Just East of South Florida"

Cone and data

Note the NHC has dropped the SC/NC extension of the cone.

This has not been any kind of stellar forecasting I may add.
But trying not to rant.

Note the discussion talking points below.

Their obsession with explaining it's close to their previous track.
They dropped the latter part of the cone.
They are basically keeping TD3 alive tonight.....
...out of respect to the nearness to SFL cities.

Yes it has a center.
A small itsy bitsy center.
And it's straddling land.
Officially it will stay off of land.
Because the NHC says so.

The convection has always been displaced to the East.
Tonight it's so displaced it can't be found.
A search party went out to find it ....
.... maybe they missed it.
But I bet that convection fires up again during the daytime.

There is shear from the approaching trof from the NW
... a small swirling swirl is hot on it's tail to it's East.

TD 3 is trying to survive.
Stay tuned tomorrow to see how it all turns out.

I'll update early

Note Phil Ferro's graphics from Miami.
Well said and well done.

Sweet tropical dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Extra credit radar image.
Center visible there ... kind of.
Like a turquoise bracelet....

Sort of a naked swirl around a weak poorly defined statement.
She's coming undone..........

* * *

Update TD 3 Formed off the Florida Coast.
Quick disclaimer.
I'm in Miami on vacation with family.
These blogs are being written fast ...
... so there may be some typos.

Remember never to believe hype online.
Stories on "no systems until August"
Just take it day by day.
TD3 went from 10% yesterday.... TD3 today.

Cone below

Models (look carefully)

Cities in Wind Probs.

Please note the water temperature shown below.
Mike showed this earlier this morning.
A temperature map of the Gulfstream.

In a sea of blue yellow and gold stands out.
This is where TD3 will be traveling.
It's the I95 of close in storm formation.

North of North Carolina........
There is extreme dark red in the Cheasapeake Bay

That's hot.
Should TD3 or Chantal get that far North...
It has fuel all the way up the coast.

Let's me honest.
If Barry could be a hurricane for 3 hours.
It's definitely possible TD3 could be Chantal for longer.

So on one hand my thoughts are on Chantal.
I'm really more concerned later in the year...
...a real hurricane will travel this same highway North.

Basics now.
30 MPH
NW 13
1013 mb

Important Discussion below:

"The system is in a marginally favorable environment for strengthening, as a special 1800 UTC sounding taken by the National Hurricane Service Forecast Office here in Miami showed a layer of dry air near the 700 mb level. The global models do not intensify the system, and only a slight increase in strength appears likely. In 36 to 48 hours, the models indicate that this system will be absorbed by a frontal trough near the U.S. east coast"
Okay my issue here is those same models didn't see TD3 forming so I have low confidence in their ability to handle this small core system that is over the warm waters of the Gulfstream as I've said before. It definitely has the chance of briefly at some point attaining Tropical Storm status though whether it is or isn't upgraded is up to the NHC and on some level TD 3 itself as to how it looks on satellite and radar imagery just off shore. Note the reading to upgrade this to TD3 was based on a reading taken from the NWS in Miami.......

Moving NW and it’s currently SW of  WPB.
Cone and discussion to follow.
Miami on the dry side.
WPB to Ft Pierce closest to it's track.
Moisture over Miami will amp up as it does... not like Miami will be "dry"
It's about to storm any minute now.
Clouds over the Glades.... skies were to the East.
Now it's dark everywhere.

Back to TD3....

NHC expected not to be TS currently
But... as always that could change.

Forecast to slide up near to the SE coast.
Mingling with the trough...
Energy mixing maybe.

Will it stay offshore?
Looks like it but watch and wait.
Where does it go after clipping S FL?

Wilmington NC is inside the cone.
Anyone from Myrtle Beach to OBX in it down the road.

Within 36 to 48 hrs this is expected to be absorbed by the front

Question is will it?

Models don’t see it intensifying..
... same models didn’t see it forming.
It has a closed center with convection
It’s over the very warm Gulfstream.

Let’s see what they say at 11 pm.
Back tonight

Listen when the NHC went to Invest at 10%
It was clear this was getting designation.
Close in...
Late July fronts hard to forecast.
Hot water.
Closed circulation.

Will update this evening after 11 PM

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)


Miami and Invest 94L
When I say Miami I meant WPB South...
should monitor 94L for upgrade to TD3

While there isn't much organization....
... still the tropics are playing chicken it seems.
And the NHC as usual is keeping a wary eye out..
Development chances are now at 30%
That's up 20% from last night.
When they dropped it down to 10%
CYA mentality of something more?
It's what we do in South Florida in July.
Expect tropical trouble named or not named.

Again exact language from NHC:

"Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally
conducive for development during the next couple
of days while the trough moves WNW to NW at 15 MPH"

This is not exactly batten down the hatches hurricane coming!
It's be careful and pay attention just in case you get slammed with rain.
Small outside chance of a name or TD status... could happen.
Low expectations here but that could change.
The NHC seems name happy the last few years....

Models shown below.

The real question here is will something form close in?
Is that a possibility we need to worry on.

It's worth noting the NHC seems to be erring on the side of caution.
No one wants some Gordon like mess in Miami without warning.
Last year a Tropical Storm formed over Miami.
National media showed downtown Miami flooding.
Flooding briefly I may add...
... the rain ran off into the Bay without incident.
But the images and videos remain.

Not saying that will happen.
It's an example of these pop up storms.
They also show where storms later in the year may go.
Stronger hurricanes that deliver more than rain.
Patterns repeat. 
Where baby trouble goes in July.
Big named storms can trace that track later.
Remember that so stay on top of hurricane preparation.

Another site to keep in mind is this one.
It shows what's popping and what's not.
SW Florida is hot. 
The wave is pulling out the stops.
It's the tropics in July.

There is something there.
And Climo (the sum total/average of weather) is in line with that fact.
Weather is every day.
Climo shows what usually happens on any give week.

Currently there is a kink in the flow on Earthnull.
Nothing big and displaced from the convection.

The big models generally don't do much with this....
...that can change fast as you know from the past.
Odd ones take it WSW most take it WNW.
For now it's rain with some intense spotty energy.

Example the models do show the front once...

Fronts don't get much further South than this in July.
And rarely that far in July.
How much this climbs today may mean a lot.
If it's moving West really or WNW to NW.
Keep watching.

Shown well here is the bottom line

Follow @philferro7 for local South Florida updates.
On Twitter or Channel 7 TV locally

Nice sunny day yesterday in Miami with a lack of afternoon thunderstorms for a change; obviously they all went West towards Tampa, Naples and all the other towns along the West Coast of Florida. Watching models and loops for Invest 94L and the only real bottom line here at the top of the discussion is it bears watching and not to expect much more than the regular strong afternoon thunderstorms. My concern is they could be locally heavy and create your typical more rain than the ground can handle until it's able to run off and evaporate. That's the usual concern for early season tropical disturbances that roam West across Florida. Tropical disturbances and Sea Breeze storms. What's a Sea Breeze? Cranky explains that well as always online on Twitter.

Whoosh storms go across the State fast on any given day.

Models do show it does some tango with the approaching front but I'm sorry I'm a Miami girl and a front in late July is like buying a lottery ticket and thinking you will win 105 Million Dollars. Mind you most people I know buy one ticket a week and hope and pray magically their ticket is the one and to be honest someone always wins but those are low odds any time of year. In late July for a cold front to move down, not begin to wane and fade away is rare and this has been a hot summer in South Florida.  Listen energy from the wave could transfer to the stalled out front energizing it a bit enhancing rain up the coast but unless this wraps up a bit more and it is looking better today I'm skeptical on how this plays out just yet.

Check out this loop and watch the strong front up north become weak and exhausted once it passes Central Florida. Now, to be clear if this system is as weak as they say it is then it has no real center, nothing much to grab and in that case would move West with the general flow and collide with the remnants of the front making things a rainy mess.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

That looks impressive but on the next few days not so much so.

I don't see it sweeping out to sea fast and furious.
I see it going typically flat once it hits Disneyland.

And we have a wet area of weather moving West.

That spells rain to me.
Lots of rain.
But in Florida we are used to lots of rain.
Note the dark red maroon to it's East ... dry air.
High Pressure.

The next five days rain amounts shown above.

Weather for Miami as an example below.

It's 80 degrees at 7 AM here.
The lowest it goes is 78 degrees.
If's 87 on Monday, 89 on Tuesday and 90 on Wednesday.
Where;s the cold front?

Also this is not an organized system.
It has no high column of air rising high into the sky.
Evacuating energy.
A stronger system gets picked up by a real front.
A weaker system waddles along producing rain.
Strong rain with thunderstorms and local flooding.

Oh and just a random note. I got to meet a distant cousin this trip.
Not so distant but one who lives in California visiting.
Ancestry DNA cousin on my Grandma's side.
It was fun, nice and that's great.
We talk on the phone and online.... to finally meet.
And been shopping with my daughter.
Hanging with my son.
Meeting up with friends.
Watching the weather.
Everyone has a cousin in Miami.
Lots of waves moving West.
Probably more cousins of this wave will visit too.

Oh as for Africa..........

When the dust settles and the shear subsides....
...the waves will develop.

Another view.......

Cranky above.
Note the season comes alive when it does.
Trying to force it doesn't help.
Pretending it's not gonna happen is silly.

Patterns repeat..............

That's it for now.
I'll update later in the day.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Updating in real time there.


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