Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Kirk. Leslie. Storms ... Take Them as WEATHER Not Just About the Center or the Wind Strength. Kirk is a Huge Mass of Convection and Wind Moving Towards the Islands. New Wave Off Africa. Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Beat's Out OBX on a Windless Day.

Ok, I am back home and watching the tropics along with all the breaking news of the day. So excuse me for not posting earlier. I slept very late and am watching the news like everyone while looping loops and trying to think just what to say here. I want to point out the reality vs the sublime, academic meteorological discussion that takes away from it the reality of life and what people are dealing with when facing any tropical entity. There are two huge systems below, both different and yet both similar in that they are easily recognized and compelling.

A storm by any name and in this case Kirk needs to be taken for what it is and not simply picked apart by academics living far away from the islands in it's path. The fact that it is a Tropical Storm vs a Category 1 Hurricane or God Forbid a Cat 5 is true, but this particular tropical storm carries with it strong winds far from it's center and huge amounts of tropical moisture. The center as always out runs the moisture but the problem with that this time is that where the center goes the moisture is going to follow. Out in the Atlantic it simply fell apart and then intensified again when it found warmer water and less wind shear. That's worth remembering as everyone is glad to stick a fork in Kirk and proclaim him dead as we had done that before and he's back again. I'm not saying he will come back if he falls apart as forecast but I am saying it's logical that him remnants can come back a second time until the last rainstorm dries up and his remnants can no longer be found. We are too ready to jump in and write off systems that have a history of pulsing up and down. I'm not hyping him, I'm being honest it just is what it is and that is how this works.

That is a HUGE area of moisture moving towards the islands.
We had flooding in the Carolinas from a similar set up.
A once powerful hurricane downgraded.
Falling apart....
...the huge pocket of moisture remained.
The rains came and followed.
So as always this is what I say.
A hurricane or Tropical Storm is more than it's center.
It's more than the cone that tracks the center.
It's more than how strong the winds in the center are...
...when stronger winds around found far to it's East.
The storm is one system moving intact across a region.
You have to view the whole system as a threat.
The Islands are threatened.
It's huge compared to the Islands.
So it will affect many areas with many problems.
Let's hope and pray it's just a strong few rainy days.
But knowing the problems of mudslides and flooding..
..we need to be concerned about those.
Not whether it's 40 mph or 50 mph.
Not whether it's running "naked"... 
... convection sheared to it's East of the center.
The whole mass is moving WEST.
Or specifically WNW at 14 MPH.

These are the facts.

Yes Kirk's between a rock and a hard place.

That does not diminish the threat to the Islands.
Luckily it's a tropical storm and not a Cat 5.
Still it holds a threat of severe weather.
So when you see Tweets such as this...
...remember the weather is the problem not the center.
We should have learned that from Florence.

Good graphic.
It doesn't diminish the weather the Islands will see.
That's a lot of weather.

Down the road?
Time will tell.

Kirk has often found ways to escape....
... death and destruction.
Keep watching.

As for Leslie..........

She has a name from the past.
The blast from the past is coming back.
90% Chances at 2 PM.

Another big, huge system compelling.
Hard not to stare.
People are staring.
People are talking.

Everyone is talking Leslie.
Except the NHC.
Imagine at 5 or 11 that will change.
It's not threatening the islands.
It's not trapped in the GOM.
It's not threatening NYC.
So they can bide their time.
Figure out how to handle Leslie again.

What your take away should be here is this.
There's a new wave coming off of Africa.
The hurricane season is far from over.
It's not 2017. 
MDR is a foreign, unfriendly place.
But as we move into October...
..we begin to look at the Caribbean and GOM.
Or the Florida Straits and dying cold fronts.
And cold fronts are on the move.

Models for Leslie show it out there.
The old cone showed it moving West.
I know scares people who just dealt with Florence.
Take it with Sea Salt.
This is a Sargasso Sea Storm for now.
And what is different now from Florence?
We have stronger cold fronts.
And it should eventually go away.
When I can't say.
For sure?
I can't say anything for sure now.
We need to watch it.
IT as in the system.
Not the models.
Models are fun.
I love models.
But I look first at satellite loops.
Then the models.
Then wait a day or so ....

Note the two images below.

Bottom Line.

1. A large (size wise) tropical storm with winds stronger than just in the center of 50 mph is moving en masse towards the islands and people will be dealing with it. Kirk is forecast to die from shear in the Caribbean, but we have seen many a storm do this and then come back to life. This is NOT Harvey, this is Kirk but Harvey was counted out about this time in it's track while many whispered on worries down the line. I heard many people laugh it off. Never laugh off a storm that has come back to life stronger than it was in warm tropical waters. This is not 2017 this is not Harvey but the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are littered with storms that made landfall that were downgraded or fell apart or reborn from remnants of a storm in the same exact place that gave it up to shear and then came back. 

Read the link.
Look at the track.
Not all that different.
Except the pattern today is not what it was in 2017.
But it's a lesson or should be.

2. Leslie is far out to sea fun to watch but nothing to worry about today. Yes it has been an odd year. Do we get a Subtropical Storm or a Gale Center or a Subtropical Hurricane or directed to some other division that handles storms at sea that the NHC doesn't want to deal with ??? Time will tell.

3. It's that time of year that we watch any convection that moves into areas where fronts die out and collide and that can become players down the tropical road.

Here are the fronts and the weather across the USA.

Nothing is threatening the US for the next 7 days.
People are threatened in the Islands from Kirk.
What was Leslie and probably will be again.. a beautiful system to watch on satellite imagery.

Should something develop....... will all be about timing and the fronts.
Fronts and the placement of the High.

7 days from now.

Have a great day.
It was nice feeling a drop of fall in Maryland.
Wednesday it evaporated and I took the leggings off.
The cowboy boots I haven't worn in months were fun.
Just wait it out and it cools off.
Between now and then....
I think there will be an October Hurricane.
Somewhere... where?
Keep watching.

The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel is awesome.
So is that one by Kent Island.
You put the windows down.
Open the sunroof.
Feel the wind... the breeze.
Watch the pelicans flying about.
The ships gliding about.
If you haven't ever done it.
Do it.
Way better than the 7 Mile Bridge.
And I love the 7 mile bridge.
Watched the sun setting over it yesterday.
No reason to "chase" 98L
OBX had 1 mph winds out of the West.
Warm in the 80s.
No thanks.
I like wind, real wind.

And a great sunset.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps...the restaurant store was closed :(
Love that place.
Nice place to sit, get coffee and stare at the water and ships and birds.

A way better view during the storm.

Sandy.... now that's wild.
Driven it in quiet weather and real weather.
Windows down.... wild

Imagine if we had a bridge like that to Cuba..
...from Key West.

Just imagine.

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