Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, September 18, 2017

UPDATED 8 PM Category 5 Hurricane Maria Intensifying... Aims for Islands and PR. Jose Being Jose.. Off shore but difficult and Lee Downgraded But Still There. Maria Forecast to Make a NNW Turn After PR.

8 PM
160 mph.
Cat 5

As I've been saying it would be...
Dominica in the cross hairs.

5 PM
Discussion from NHC regarding Jose.
They don't say "Fujiwara"
But they do say it's drifting S or SW

The cone shows the loop...
Let's call it a loop.
It might become more.
Discussion below from NHC

"The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose in
weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to drift to the
south or southwest at the end of the forecast period."
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By going S Jose can survive and thrive.
Going North he dies out.
There's a front..
..time will tell.
Kind of text book classic Hurricane.
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5 PM Discussion.
"It should be noted that the despite the great intensity of Maria,
the hurricane force winds are currently confined to a small area
near the eye. The radii forecast assumes that the 64-kt radii will
not expand significantly during the next 36 h. However, if an
expand to an area larger than forecast" eyewall replacement cycle occurs,
the hurricane-force winds could

Major Hurricane Maria is a deadly Major Hurricane that could, as I said earlier, become a Category 5 Hurricane.

Compare and contrast with the earlier 2 PM.


Warnings up for Islands below.

Note the paths criss cross
Irma goes left.
Maria going right.
If Maria follows the forecast.

We all are hoping Maria does that jump right.
Heads NNW after the Islands.
We thought Irma would do that too...
Personally until a Hurricane is North of me.
I don't let my guard down.
Especially a complex forecast.
But Florida should be able to breathe..
Breathe easy soon....

Maria breathing beautifully.
On her way to Cat 4 or more.
Is Cat 5 possible?

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Watch that tiny eye pop out.

Models as of 2 PM

ALL models turn Maria before Florida.
Not all miss the Carolinas.
Most follow Jose....
... she wants to dance with Jose.
Does she do a Fujiwara?
Time will tell.

Below we see JOSE

4th and 5th day never consistent.
A looper always wants to loop.
Again they loop to stay alive.
Jose has always been a fighter.

Good graphic.
Spaghetti Models shows it.

A good loop to rely on.
It's a short term loop.
Not 192 hours out.

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11 AM Discussion for Jose. Much talk on riptides and the closeness of Jose yet the problems he is having regarding dry air and shear and looking not so tropical.

Lee hanging on as  tropical depression. Sort of a back burner story. Don't forget about him.

Regarding Maria.

Maria is now a Major Hurricane.
Rapidly Intensifying.

Forecast to be a Category 4 at Landfall.
NHC is usually conservative.
I'll leave the possibility there of Cat 5.
Watch it carefully.

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People on the East Coast worrying on Jose.
So showing the cones for Jose first.

You can see Jose at the top of the screen caught up in a battle with shear dealing with lower water temperatures and Maria center stage headed into the Islands. I want you to notice the Upper Level Low to the West of Maria and a cluster of convection down in the Caribbean near Central America. 

The above image is Jose off the coast of the Carolinas. This site shows the winds much like Earth Null shows the global winds, however windy tends to be more colorful. Below it shows Maria and the reason I put them up in this format is to show you the comparison of size. Maria is a smaller storm size wise and can easily ramp up and go through a rapid intensification phase (aka RI) prior to landfall. This is a dangerous set up for Puerto Rico and the islands that already hosted Irma on her way to Cuba and Florida. As Irma already trashed many of those islands there isn't much more Maria can do other than toss her trash around and batter already weakened structures. Seriously this is a bad set up and Irma did stay to the North mostly of Puerto Rico. Jose is forecast to have a more direct impact on Puerto Rico. Again we are talking forecasting not a done deal and storms can be fickle. Jose has been more fickle than Maria; Irma was extremely stubborn on taking the lower, west side of her cone always. We will soon see what Maria does when she makes landfall. Note the track of Irma takes her South of the Virgin Islands however they will feel some impacts. 

This is just ONE forecast.
The Euro.
Showing 2 threatening systems.

The map above is a forecast.
Wednesday according to EURO.

Below is Earthnull.

A really great site.

Close up passage of Maria through, over the Islands.

And then the later forecast.
This is the official NHC forecast.
Skeetobite does their own maps.
But it IS the track from NHC.
Note the pull NNW

The above link is to the EURO model that is advertising some interaction between Jose and Maria and the last frame at 192 HOURS out (far away... things change... not a for sure) show a fujiwara dance going on between the two. You see Irma off the coast off the SE coast and if you squint real well and make your screen larger you can see that small bubble off the coast of Carolina is Jose. Jose seems to get looped into the Outer Banks.  The momentum seems to spin Maria out to sea. According to the EURO.  Again hit the forward tab on the loop and you can watch it in action. I am very, extremely weary of a 192 hour forecast, but this is what everyone is talking about. With Irma they had problems getting her track down within five days so as far as that 192 hour image... take it with a lot of salt.

It's not that I don't believe in the possibility of interaction or as we call it Fujiwara where two systems interact and swirl around the other. It's just rare and often forecast and often it does not pan out. In 1926 there was interaction between a weaker storm and the Great Miami Hurricane. In this sort of dance the stronger partner leads, wins out and the weaker storm gets spun away. Several days before the Category 4 1926 Hurricane made landfall a storm warning was issued and people in Miami were warned to prepare for a tropical system. Nothing really happened as the storm ended up looping back down towards Cuba. Several days later when Miami was warned again to expect a large West Indies Hurricane people took it with way too many grains of salt and didn't worry enough. Earlier in that year a large hurricane missed Miami and made landfall to the North of Miami and they got the fringe effects (much like this year with Irma hitting to the South) and got basically a tree trimmer hurricane. It made a mess but everyone was safe. So feeling they knew all about hurricanes and they weren't much to worry on but more so to clean up after .... then the next storm didn't show up they were tired and weary of being told hurricanes were knocking at their door. Big mistake. 

You think 2017 is bad?
Look at the tropical traffic jam of 1926.
Note the green line that goes yellow.
Then hooks SW along the FL Straits?
That storm was pushed away by the outflow...
..of the 1926 Hurricane.

Again the stronger storm wins that dance.
See the two storms below.

Tropical Storm September 11-17 coming up from Cuba towards South Florida does a U turn and goes back fast.

Category 4 Hurricane September 11 - 22 cruising along on a steady WNW course; a large hurricane size wise with a huge outflow pushing everything else out of it's way on it's course for Miami.

It's really not that uncommon in busy years.
Stronger storm wins.

But I do want you to notice Lee... downgraded and still out there despite being downgraded. Usually when we see a storm downgraded it usually falls apart and goes away. Lee has not and that makes me continue to watch his remnants... just in case. It's a crazy year.

Wide view above.
Do you see any red in Jose?
I do in Lee...
Spinning red in Maria.
Jose beautiful to look at ...
..but losing intensity.
You can see that below as well.

Big white swirl in the Atlantic.
Jose... always trying to stay alive.

Visible center ..
Naked center.
Convection to the right of center.

Again Maria and what's left of Lee

What is left to say?

Maria currently is taking the lower road into the Islands and currently Dominica, Martinque and even Guadeloupe are in it's path. It is then forecast to take on the island of Puerto Rico as an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE. I cannot stress this enough and if it continues to intensify it could go all the way to Category 5. A Category 4 hurricane would do catastrophic damage to Puerto Rico and that means structural damage not tree damage. Think Irma in the Lower Keys not Irma in Miami... think bad, really bad. It is then forecast down the road to pull more to the right and aim it's fury onto the Bahamas. As things stand now, Florida is not as much in danger as it was from Irma but it is too soon to say that any track is set in stone. Why? Well for one much depends on Jose and Jose has never been a team player. Relying on Jose to do his job in this tropical drama is not something I want to do just yet. I'm more of a show me girl vs a tell me a fantasy and I'll buy it girl. There is too much riding on this and too many people in Florida totally terrified that Maria will follow in Irma's footsteps.

A bigger problem is that many in South Florida refuse to take any tropical threat seriously as they are so done and refuse to entertain the possibility that they could get hit again this season. Look back at that 1926 Hurricane Season I showed above and know it is a possibility. And, despite Maria looking threatening I'm worried on October and later in the season when the Caribbean gets active and cold fronts pull storms up over South Florida.

While the threat from Jose this week has been played up along the East Coast in the media it's possible if Maria doesn't go out to sea that next week we will be dealing with those same cones showing trouble down the road for the East Coast. When I say East Coast I mean mostly anywhere from South Carolina North up towards the usual cities Hurricanes can impact. I'm currently less concerned about South Florida with the caveat that I am not happy Maria took the left side of the last few cones vs the right side. We were talking about the Virgin Islands a few days ago and now we are talking about Guadeloupe that's a big difference.  Also, unlike Irma, Maria is a small, compact hurricane that can easily make turns faster than Irma or continue doing what she has done so far. Stay tuned. And lastly... remember I said there is an Upper Level Low to the West of Maria. That needs to be watched. Oh and convection in the SW Caribbean as we are getting deeper into the hurricane season that also needs to be watched.

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Much to be concerned about as we clean up here in Florida and watch Maria from the Carolinas. Jose spins and loops that's his thing. Expect more of the same. Maria has yet to be experienced from a landfall perspective and we will soon sadly see what she does when she interacts with land. Then we can worry later on the whole, Fujiwara dance. I'm worried about Puerto Rico and the Islands, we can worry on choreography later.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter for faster updates in real time. I'll update later this afternoon. 
Ps... excuse any typos I'll correct later a lot going on where I am and it's a long, long story. 

South Florida is a bit battered but beautiful. Traffic Lights are out in many places and yet traffic is moving along as people go out to shop, to eat and to feel the tropical breeze. Especially those people who have no power... they are out and about eating out and waiting for the lights to be turned back on. In the Florida Keys the lower you go the more it looks like Islands being occupied by soldiers, military personal and people paid to clean up the mess, look through debris for bodies and try to put it back together so that the residents who evacuated can return. The Upper Keys are messy the way they look after a hurricane but not catastrophic damage. The lower you go the worse it gets and it gets worse.... it gets as bad as it can and I'm worried the Islands in the path of Maria will soon know what that feels like as well. A Hurricane Season from Hell. Plain and simple. 

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