Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 28, 2017

99L Forms ..UPDATED! 50% Orange Circle Over FLORIDA.... IS Nate Forming in the Caribbean .. Headed Towards FL? Into GOM? Is the O Storm Soon to Follow? Orange 40% by NHC in 5 days. Irma Recover and Maria Moves Slowly Away .. Slowly. Waiting on the Cold Front in the Carolinas. Compass Realty Coconut Grove "The Meyer Group"

2 views of 99L shown above..
and below.

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Hard to see but...
small spin in the Florida Straits.
Just off N coast of Cuba.
From the NRL site below.
Soon we should have model runs.
Specific to 99L

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Short term loop above.
Better than models.
You can that that to the bank.
Bank on lots of rain across Florida

I promised you model discussion.
First lets do this old school...

Note last 2 frames show a L.
Down in the SW Caribbean.
Near the Yucatan.
Nothing but rain over Florida.

Can that rain get a name is the question.

p120i.gif (750×562)

That's a lot of rain over the next 5 days.

Understand that many in Florida are trying to clean up everything from debris to getting their roof fixed to getting the proper forms filled out to demolish what is left of their homes. It is not a happy place as people work to get trees trimmed, stumps ground and pray daily for the trucks to come and remove the piles of debris from their streets. Some streets are missing street signs, traffic lights and it's every man for himself at a downed traffic light. In some areas in the Keys the clean up has barely begun and along the SW Florida coast where Irma made her second landfall in Florida people are living without the basics ... though better than those in Puerto Rico it's far from normal. Any new system, no matter how small or poorly formed could cause exponential misery more than an early June system like this would normally cause. So that image above is the 5 day rain total and it's not good. The St Johns River for example is not even back to "normal" and Maria has left a strong on shore surge of tides and beach erosion still ....

Usually I show this image below.
While looking for those early elusive waves.

It shows the Caribbean to be busy..
..First week of October.

Water is very HOT.

There are 2 areas I want you to focus on.

Way South of Lee...
A cluster of convection.
Part wave... part pulled N.
Part remains.
A small westbound tropical wave.
To the west of that.
Once Maria and Lee leave...
There will be less shear.
And we may see a secondary system.
The 1st one sort of vague.
Rouge sort of storm.
Hybrid maybe.

I can see Potential Tropical Cyclone Alert.
Low designation.
MUCHO rain for Florida.


So would that be NATE?
Could we be waiting on Ophelia?

Maria Lee and the shear need to leave.
Under the radar .. tropical waves.
Hot Water.
ULL not as impt in a week perhaps.

Confusing right?
Which is it?
Or is it both of them?

Note the models below.

The Euro on October 7th...

October 8th.. moving NE.


September 30th.
Small L near NE Florida.


October 6th...
Down in the Caribbean.
Deep down.
Something forms.

It moves up towards Florida.

Not good.

It moves up along the W part of FL.
Stays over E GOM.

Mike would be doing lots of Facebook Lives..

My bottom line. There is currently an area just South of Florida near Cuba being watched for development. Most short term models show a system forming off the NE coast of Florida.. very weak, moving around Florida... and then going away. A cold front moves South. Maria and Lee hit the road in search of new locations and our eyes need to watch the Caribbean as most models show a Low forming and that is totally in line with climo and where we look for October development.

Again should Nate form close in ...home grown ... huge amounts of rain and bad weather are not going to be seen as a popular guest in the state of Florida still trying to dry out, clean up and get on with life. Even a weak, hybrid Nate would set us back on our recovery as well as adding more concerns.

But I'm more concerned about the long term problem that may come up at us from the Caribbean during the time period from October 4th through October 10th. I'm putting out there a wide span of days to worry upon and hopefully this will not develop.  In the short term... 

Watch this loop... the next few days should show something possibly coming up out of the Caribbean. In the short term a low forms connected to a cold front that goes stationary then gets strong from another reinforcing cold front comes...goes flat then... well you get the idea. Bottom Line watch the Caribbean in a week's time for a real problem and continue watching Invest 99L for a weak system that may cause a lot of misery.

* * *

Updated 2 PM NHC outlook

Up to 50% chances in the 5 day.
Satellite image below of Florida.
Sat and Radar...

Loop below.

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Note the ULL over E GOM
Plays a part in evolution.
Can enhance....
...can shear.
Keeps it in check.
Interaction between the two bears watching.

I'll update after the EURO finishes running.
Around 4 PM
Check back later.

All eyes are on the Caribbean now.
Ignoring Maria and Lee...
...Looking for Nate.

So let's start at the very beginning, as Maria taught us, it's a very good place to start. When the calendar flips over to October the areas that need to be watched are shown below. Above the NHC has highlighted an area with a 40% chance of developing directly in that region shown below.

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Maria is in fact directly connected to this area.
As Mike said so simply and correctly.

I spoke about this over the last few days. Maria left a long tail that went all the way down into the Caribbean. Think of that the way we watch the tail end of a cold front, when the convection sits over very hot water it tends to begin to spin and become a problem. I've shown this several times of late and I'll post a Tweet from Dabuh who is good at sniffing out development.

Watch the satellite loop below.

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At the base of the tail of Maria.
Is our area we are watching.

Understand because it's at the end of an active hurricane it is different from a dead cold front as there is still shear there that will hold this area in check from getting too strong. That changes down the road when Maria finally departs. She has been slow to depart so far though you can see the dry air pushing East reaching out towards her trying to push her away from the East Coast. Dry air for the newbies being that maroon, rusty, black area over the Southeast stretching out towards Maria trying to push it away. It's the second attempt to shove Maria away from the coast and the third will be the charm. We are forecast to be 90 degrees again, but Fall is forecast to make a return on Friday. Again I say "forecast" as nothing in weather is a given but we are hoping to have a reason to sip Pumpkin Spice Latte which is hard to do if it's 85 degrees unless you live in Miami and that's normal. Yankees like it to be really cold before they start sipping the PSL .. especially New England people who need it to be cold enough. In North Carolina it will soon be PSL weather (for a few days) as Maria goes out to sea and our attention moves down below into the Caribbean as we move day by day towards October. Specifically Saturday night Sunday morning it will feel like Fall finally in the Carolinas. 

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So you can see the ULL still near FL.
Hanging out in the E GOM
And area we are ignoring in the BOC.

Dave was great where this was concerned.
He always showed the whole picture.
He explained how it was all related.
Anything below FL only has one way to go.
IF something forms in a week...
...things might change.

Watch Dave below.

Next I want to warn you on long term models.
And cones that have a wide degree of error.
Irma below ALWAYS took the left side of the cone.
She made landfall in Cuba.
She didn't slide up the East Coast.
Tho her weather DID...
Not a bad shot in the dark.
But again the cone wiggles a lot.
As the hurricane does it's thing.
The cone and the models adjust.


I'll show the models this afternoon at the top.
Every city is talking about it.
But each a bit differently.
Jax weather shows this:

They be dealing with a strong front.
A quasi system down below.
Those are wind speeds...
...not temperature readings.

Down in the FL Keys...

They always do great discussion.

They also add in some hurricane history.
1929 a quiet season.
Brought an October Hurricane.

In 1929 while most of the country was about to be sucked into the downward spiral of the stock market the only real strong, memorable hurricane of a very slow hurricane season plowed through the Bahamas, made a SW Betsy like move and then caused problems in the Florida Keys then it caught a cold front and went on to do record damage in some parts of the Southeast. Today in history... indeed. 

From Wikiepedia below:

Hurricane Two[edit]

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
Pcpn1929092328isohyets.png 1929 Florida hurricane track.png
DurationSeptember 19 – October 1
Peak intensity155 mph (250 km/h) (1-min)  924 mbar (hPa)
The Great Bahamas Hurricane of 1929
The second storm of the season originated from a tropical wave that developed in the vicinity of Cape Verde on September 11.[4] The wave became a tropical depression at 00:00 UTC on September 19, while located about 300 mi (480 km) north-northeast of Anegada in the British Virgin Islands. The depression drifted just north of due west while strengthening slowly, becoming a tropical storm early on September 22. Later that day, the storm curved northwestward. Around midday on September 23, it intensified into a hurricane. While turning southwestward on the following day, the hurricane began to undergo rapid deepening. Late on September 25, the system peaked with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (250 km/h), an estimate based on pressure-wind relationship, with a minimum barometric pressure of 924 mbar (27.3 inHg).[5]
While crossing through the Bahamas, the storm struck Eleuthera and Andros, on September 25 and September 26, respectively. Late on September 27, the system weakened to a Category 3 hurricane and re-curved northwestward. At 13:00 UTC the next day, the hurricane made landfall near Tavernier, Florida. The storm then entered the Gulf of Mexico and continued weakening, falling to Category 2 intensity late on September 28. While approaching the Gulf Coast of the United States, the hurricane weakened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early on October 1, it made landfall near Panama City Beach, Florida. A few hours later, the hurricane weakened to a tropical storm and then became extratropical over southwestern Georgia shortly thereafter. The remnants continued northeastward up the East Coast of the United States, until entering Canada and dissipating over Quebec early on October 5.[5]
In the Bahamas, the hurricane brought strong winds and large waves to the archipelago. At Nassau, a weather station observed a wind gust of 164 mph (264 km/h).[6]Within the city alone, 456 houses were destroyed, while an additional 640 houses suffered damage. On Abaco Islands, 19 homes were demolished.[2] The hurricane damaged or destroyed 63 homes and buildings on Andros. Telegraph service was disrupted.[7] There were 48 deaths in the Bahamas.[2][4][7] Throughout the Bahamas and the Florida Keys, numerous boats and vessels were ruined or damaged. At the latter, strong winds were observed, with a gust up to 150 mph (240 km/h) in Key Largo.[2] However, damage there was limited to swamped fishing boats and temporary loss of electricity and communications.[4] Farther north, heavy rains flooded low-lying areas of Miami.[2] A devastating tornado in Fort Lauderdale damaged a four story hotel, a railway office building, and several cottages. In the Florida Panhandle, storm surge destroyed several wharves and damaged most of the oyster and fishing warehouses and canning plants.[4] Overall, there was approximately $2.36 million in damage and three deaths in Florida; eight others drowned offshore.[2]"

Just remember that after September it is NOT over and especially in October in busy seasons it takes a long time for things to wind down.  Speaking of that read the discussion below and note that surf is still strong from Maria far to the North.

It doesn't matter what Florida city you put in.
The NWS discussion is all the same.
Watching a Tropical Disturbance below.

Miami discussion below

Again I'll update the blog later today with new model runs. The runs are just inconsistent and they all hint at development in the short term around Florida and again in the long term and I've heard several good meteorologists give their own spin on the models and their spin differs greatly depending on how they see it and their own geographic concerns. So in times like this I watch those I trust who are best at sniffing out development, hinting at evolution and trusting my own thoughts. The image below is DAY 10 and could that be the area in the BOC that is now showing convection or will that area push into Mexico under a strong high and then later this develops. Time will tell. We are all on top of it.

This is why I said what I said on Twitter.
Models show odd solutions.
Multiple solutions.
Even the same model... 
You need a good met who knows weather.
You got to know when to ...
buy in to the model.
Not rely on the model.
Wait on next model run.
Make your own forecast.

That brings me to Rob from who puts out great forecast discussion but he is a pay for view service. He is very good and many meteorologists do that in that they work privately vs the way the NHC does where their forecast is free to view however sometimes they go wide with discussion and the devil is always in the details. When you have a cone the size of Texas and you have specific concerns and want a more detailed forecast many turn to private meteorologists. He's okay with me posting this and wanted to do so this morning as with a very complicated forecast for what could be a Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm or a Hybrid Storm that would be GOOD because it wouldn't be a CAT 5 could cover a wide area with a diverse mess of weather that includes but is not limited to high tides, strong winds, flooding, beach erosion and twisters over a very large area. I can only imagine what the NHC Cone would look like....

I'll update more on the models and Nate and my own thoughts later today.

As regards Irma and Maria and the places in it's path that need help I'm posting this site from my son's company. He knows Florida, Florida Real Estate and what it is like to be a father with two small children and his wife trying to protect them before the hurricane and trying to clean up after the hurricane. He lives in Coconut Grove and his place was in a flood zone very close to his office (also in a flood zone) and as I learned recently my daughter in law was a little girl in Andrew and she never wants her kids to go through that again so........the hit the road. There is much clean up in the Grove as it is "the Grove" and a grove of coconut and local hardwood trees in a hammock along Biscayne Bay. Rarely do hurricanes happen there but when they do you clean up and life goes on.

When Levi got back to Florida (from visiting with me in North Carolina) he went out with his truck, a chain saw and some co-workers, best friends and siblings cutting down trees that wrapped around people's homes making it almost impossible to go out. When a ficus tree wraps itself around our front door and all your windows after a hurricane ... you can use good friends and Levi always has been a friend to jump in and help someone. Currently he's trying to help raise money and products for people in need where Irma made LANDFALL especially I believe in the Naples area. They are collecting supplies (list below) and coordinating with others to try and get what they need in there... as well as money.

Below is a picture of Main Highway in the Grove. I'm very grateful it was not hit directly by Irma. It is a wonderful place to live, rich in early South Florida History and a walkable, place where families walk about town, people bike and stroll enjoying the lifestyle that is so unique to Coconut Grove. Many places in Florida are unique and beautiful one of them being Naples where Irma did visit directly and did much destruction sadly.

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I remember driving down that street after Andrew and taking pictures and when I looked at the photo I could not figure out where it was as it was a street devoid of tree canopy. And in a year or two it grew back (things grow fast in the tropics) and it was paradise again. Levi has involved himself this week with a charity fund to help people recover. Yes, I'm always proud of him but today more so.. and in particular his "The Meyer Group" are collecting monies for diapers especially and trust me been there done that and I bought more diapers before Andrew than junk food... We went to several stores looking for diapers as most were sold out and if you have kids in diapers who are not ready for potty training... well you got to have diapers. And many other things are needed and as always money is needed.

I never ask for money for my blog though the blog has had a few perks over time :) and I am grateful but I do ask that you help others who are trying to make a difference and please make a donation as you can... a small donation multiplied by ones your friends can give goes a long way... a big donation goes even further. A sad reality of life after a tragedy is money does make the world go back to normal. Please donate I did... asking others to do so as well.

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