Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, August 25, 2017

Updated ...Hurricane Harvey Making Landfall in Texas.. Will It May Landfall a 2nd Time Near Houston & Galveston? Irma Is in the Wings.


Look at that eye.

2 things that are annoying me tremendously.
Both lead to misconceptions.

NHC Discussion...

1... This hurricane is de facto a Category 3 Hurricane, what we call a Major Hurricane and it makes a big, huge difference how people perceive the threat from staying and riding out a hurricane. When you grow up in hurricane county like I have you feel somewhat "safe" riding out a Cat 1 or a Cat 2 even. But a Major Hurricane makes everyone, except the NHC it seems, stop for a minute and rethink what their plans are as well as the MEDIA coverage on major NEWS outlets who would rather talk politics than cover a natural disaster. A Major Hurricane is a MAJOR story and one worth covering before the town starts getting blown away later tonight.  

This storm is ONE mile per hour LESS than a Cat 3 Hurricane and I'm pretty sure somewhere in there for a few minutes have been Cat 3 winds between eye wall replacement cycles (basically how the storm blinks) and strong explosive squalls within the eye wall. The barometric pressure is dropping and consistent with Category 3 Hurricanes but they chose NOW to be "sure" and scientific? Or are they waiting for their forecast to verify? I'm sorry but it's wrong, just really wrong. The devil is in the details. They upgraded Don that was basically a tropical dot and never sent one plane into Gert during it's whole life span while writing discussion explaining what they think was happening. Yet, 1 MPH less than Cat 3 and they are going to wait a bit longer until after the storm makes landfall? Just wrong.

1 MPH may = 1 Life Saved. Upgrade it already.

Note the town was never rebuilt.

"The storm ended the rivalry between Galveston and Indianola as the chief port of Texas. With the abandonment of Indianola and the unwillingness of the former residents to rebuild close to shore, Galveston became the most important Texan port until the 1900 Galveston Hurricane led to the rise of Houston as a major port."

2... This is NOT "unprecedented" in history it is simply a track that was forecast by a model that we have not yet seen happen. We have very little knowledge of the exact details of storms in the 1800s and before that since time began some hurricane has done this... it's hype and wrong to say things like this as history repeats. And it has not verified yet so we don't know if it will happen. For example the Indianola Hurricane occurred during a very busy period with multiple landfalls along the Texas coast. It is very possible that a storm could have moved onto land, moved back over, sat for a long period of time adding to the misery of any strong hurricane. We only have the basic track and history but storms like this happen and in the old days the town relocate. After Floyd small hamlets in NC were not rebuilt after the flooding and often hurricanes loop over the Outer Banks before moving on up the coast and making landfall a second time. 

How is this "unprecedented" when we have little knowledge before the last 100 years or so in details and we did not have model runs more than a few decades back. 

Unprecedented would be aliens getting off a spaceship that lands during an Eclipse and asking to see Michael Rennie.

This is unprecedented.... Hurricane Harvey is not unprecedented it's DANGEROUS and a Category 3 Hurricane (less 1 mph) and about to make landfall on an area that has not seen a hurricane let along a Major hurricane in a long time. And IF it moves onto Houston that would be terrible, tragic yet to say it has never happened in some sort of hype akin to blaming this on aliens, the eclipse or a rabbit in a movie. 

It is what it is deal with it.

Who knows what the models would have shown before Hurricane Carla hit in 1961. We will never know... computers really didn't exist back then the way we have them now so... yeah right.

More later.

Another view.
So close to landfall.

In motion.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Look at the size of the pin hole eye.
The greens circulating inside the red.
Deadly winds about to lash Texas.

Wider view.

rgb-animated.gif (720×480)

Even wider...
..a reminder where Harvey came from in Africa.

As forecast this is a busy, intense hurricane season.
As forecast with landfalling hurricanes.
Long trackers.
Plan accordingly...

While still a Cat 2..
the pressure is dropping.
Recon found very low pressures.
Winds WILL get stronger.
Forecast to be Cat 3

The information on this blog is going to be updated in real time throughout the day much like a Live Blog adding information as it becomes available. I am only going to focus for now on the NOW the short term movement and intensity of Hurricane Harvey (1 mph from Cat 3 Status as I write this) and less on the long term movement of Harvey. Why? Because in reality it's just uncertain currently what Harvey will do AFTER making Landfall later today in Texas. The track guidance is as tight as it gets currently for where Harvey will go.

Hurricane Harvey, forecast to be a Cat 3 at landfall, will move inland and then stall out according to most models over the coast. The coastline there is porous, coastal beaches with bays and bayous and though not a highly populated area of coastline there are cities in it's path. One of the larger cities is Corpus Christi a city not used to hurricanes of late, but a city that has known big hurricanes in the past. Hurricane Carla in 1961 visited there, made Dan Rather's career, and left a deep knowledge with old timers but in recent times they have been lucky hurricane wise. Their luck has run seems.

Mike made a page just for Harvey info.

If you live in the area N or S of Corpus Christi it's pretty much too late to prepare. You have either left town or are finishing those last minute things you need to do and are taking a break and taking one long, last look around. It may not look the same when Harvey has finally moved on. When you live on a barrier island, and I have a good part of my life, you are aware it is the barrier there to sort of protect the real coastline. You are living on an island that in the overall scheme of things was meant to be temporary, but we build homes and towns on them. It's possible the coastline itself may change after Harvey; a strong hurricane can make a new cut in a barrier island and with that cut goes the roads and whatever was there before the hurricane made landfall.

Up the road in Houston it's time to really plan out where you will be if King Euro is right and it takes Harvey inland and then out back over water where it wanders for a few days until taking aim at Galveston Bay and Houston... maybe even Louisiana. Now is the time for you to decide what you WILL do should the models verify and Harvey behave and follow the models. You can pray that Hurricane Harvey has it's own agenda and somehow this forecast tragedy is somehow mitigated in some way that we can not say today. Pray.

In the wake of the anniversary of Hurricane Andrew it's worth saying this image below is not relevant to Harvey unless Harvey makes landfall over a populated city such as Houston. And, even then it is not forecast to be as strong as Andrew was or as Harvey is now if it makes that second landfall in a very over populated, beautiful bayou city. So if it helps you to pray.. good. Pray.

For now we study HARVEY.
We analyze.

We watch in real time in wonder ... Harvey moves in on the radar.

We share information online.
That's what we do.
Meteorologists share.
Meteorologists educate and warn the public.

2 images 24 hours apart.

Current discussion out of NWS for Corpus Christi

Tropical Storm Force Winds ...
...Could Linger into TUESDAY

Harvey moving in on radar
You can even see the 2nd eye wall.
Eye wall replacement cycles may matter.
It's very fluid in intensity.

Watches, warnings.
IF this moves INLAND ... 
vs straddling the coast.
Austin.. San Antonio WATCH OUT!

Awesome imagery.
Terrible tragedy.

And for those of you asking on 92L
That's 92L ? Irma ? to the right.
Seems possibly so.
Jose may be coming off of Africa.

Landfall shown below.
First comes 3 day.

Then the God Forbid 5 Day.
Pray that something changes.

Steering currents are forecast to die out.
Major Hurricanes can make their own weather.
They can become a steering current.

Because after today... can move towards Houston.

But for today...
check below.
Coastal areas.
Small towns.
North of CC would be better.

The take away at this morning is this could be YOU if you live along hurricane country later this hurricane season. I don't want to hear that Jax or Tampa never gets hurricanes or that the barrier reef protects Key West ... know if you live from the Tex Mex coastline up to Maine including South Florida this could be your story in two weeks or three weeks. So prepare now and get a plan and a back up plan and think what you would do. Keep your medications up to date, figure out what to do with your pets. Think. Prepare. Knowledge is power.

Holiday Inn in Texas in the path of Harvey allowed pets for the storm. Good for them. One reason several people in Andrew died was they refused to leave their pets and in those days shelters wouldn't take pets nor would hotels obviously.

I'll update throughout the day. The only music I'll leave you with right now is the sound of the hurricane wind. This is what it sounds like though in person it's different as you can feel it, hear it deep inside your soul.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter in real time.

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


Post a Comment

<< Home