Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Models Show Development in Carib GOM. NHC Says No! TWC Says Pumpkin Shortage.. OH NO! Hurricane Season & Football Season. Pavlov's Dog

Official NHC Line at 2 PM is Nothing forming in the next 5 days!

But there has been tons of discussion on models and development.
So I am going to add my thoughts.
I agree with @hurrtrackerapp.
They keep pushing off the scenario every day.
In NC they keep putting rain in the forecast.....
...and then taking it out again.

It's becoming a bit like Pavlov's dog.
If you aren't familiar with that... watch the video.
Spittle, saliva, moisture, models.
All sort of the same.

Meteorologists know when the models come out.
We get excited.
Any color on a model makes us salivate.
Conditioned reflex.
Note the dog is hungry. He eats cause he is hungry.
But we have been conditioned to watch the models.
When hungry... ANY model...

Around 10 to any hour I know somewhere....
..a TV is showing the Tropical Update on TWC.
Sometimes I watch. 

Today they were talking on a pumpkin shortage during the Tropical Update.


I googled it. They aren't making a Jack O' Lantern out of nothing!!
According to some sources weather messed up the pumpkin crop.

Fall Falling Leaves. Pumpkins in the store.
Mums on the front porch.
Leaves all over the deck.

Football Season. 
Hurricane Season.

The Weather Channel Blues.
They are showing models on "enhanced storminess"
All based on MJO
Madden Julian Oscillation 

That's Roland Madden not Dave Madden, just so you know.

Is the MJO the largest variable in tropical development
Or is it "mostly junk observation" as Jim Williams often says.

I feel like Charlie Brown sometimes.
I run across the house to watch the Tropical Update...
... like I used to do in the old days.
I tell myself not to put it on. Just stay online...don't watch, don't do it.
I do it.
Run, run, run across the house..........
TWC is doing story on a pumpkin shortage.


And yet online people are talking on possible development.
When are we going to stop jumping like Pavlov's Dog?
When we hear a new model showed development...
...but pushed it off just a bit more.

The NHC is Charlie Brown AFTER therapy.
After attending the Neil Frank Home for the Tropically Insane
They have given up playing the shell game with the models.
The NAM, the BAM and the GFS...

They are hanging tough and saying NO.. nothing is forming.

They are playing tough after the Joaquin debacle.
Every time I use the word debacle I think of my brother.
He would get sick of hearing about the Dolphin Debacle on Monday morning.
Unless it was a Monday Night game and then it was on Tuesday.
But I digress.

The new NHC policy is obviously to be a bit more intense...
...on ignoring models until they see points on the board.

Is there anything on the board?

2 areas I circled in yellow.
Nothing yet but there are signs.

In motion...

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

Yes and no. There is some oozing of convection in the SW Carib.
Then again there is also that sense of oozing on the Western side in the Epac.
Moisture from the Epac is lifting up towards the GOM.
There is a river of moisture there. It needs to be more competitive.
The moisture has to go after development. It has to be more intense.
It has to want to get noticed!

If we get something there.. we will start there.
Yellow X's and O's will come afterward.

Nobody is more committed to getting it right than the NHC.
They will be there for us!
Whatever it takes, we got it!

Glad we have them. 

I feel like I can relate to the NHC.
I may not be their best friends.. ... 
...but I've been there..
...I understand them.
I know what it's like to when things are not going the way you want them to.

Every model is different. No model is the same.
Some models need a kick in the pants. 
Some models need to be challenged and told they are not good enough!
That's the strength of the NHC right now. 
That's what they do well! *

To be honest. I need time to soak all this in.
To evaluate the models better. I need more better models.
I don't have time right now. I'm still unpacking everything.

All  I can tell you is they were not happy with the way the GFS was going.
So ... from now on they seem to be making a change.
When the Euro is consistently showing development.
And when we see moisture really hitting it's mark and pressures dropping a little.

Then we will be ready for game time. 
Game time is at this point a yellow circle. 

It is SO competitive out there ..very intense.
People are tweeting left and right on possible development.
The models are competing .. Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.

That goes for EVERY model!
We need to see convection!!

That's what the NHC is saying!

The NHC is going back to the basics.
They are not going to run after the models like Pavlo's Dog!!
They are going to wait until they see something!!

NO MORE ZERO % Yellow Circles!
Talk the talk, walk the walk... 
Waiting to see convection before they are starting a conversation!

Got to tell you there is nothing like being around weather people.
The camaraderie is intense!
I have the utmost respect for everyone.

We have plenty season left. There is still time to turn things around.
We have to analyze where we go from here?
Do you just want some Yellow X's and O's
No I don't think so... 
It's not just about models. It's about development.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

I think its too soon to tell.
I can see the possibility of something forming.
I still think it's low chances for now.
Maybe by Sunday at this time we will know...
...if the models won the game!

Crown Weather says the wave in the SW Carib has climo going for it.

But he is skeptical it seems on the timing.
We all are a bit skeptical on the timing.

You know that game where you offer a pet a treat..
And then you keep moving the treat away a bit more...

Models are playing the old dog and pony show.
They've been teasing us with development daily ...
When I see pressures drop and convection spinning.
And...the NHC putting up a yellow circle.
Want to see those yellow X's and O's..

I want to see models with Invests ...and floaters.
Do you see any on the page here?

When I see them up there on the main page... 
Then I'll go into deeper details.
Maybe then I'll climb on board the model train.

Besos Bobbistorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. We will see what we see about how the Fins play on Sunday.
Nice press conference if you watched you'll understand this blog better!

* Note named storms have formed this season when the NHC said nothing was forming in 5 days so ...........stay tuned and keep watching!


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