Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, June 03, 2014

El Nino Officially LATE for the Hurricane Party. TD 2E Tries to Become Boris & Cross Over Into the BOC

First let's start off with TD- trying to become Tropical Storm Boris before crossing over Mexico into the BOC. The GFS model sticks with a weak closed, circulation in the GOM & meander around in circles driving tropical meteorologists crazy as they watch the GFS model duel it out with the EURO.

He's close to the coast and picking the best possible spot to try and cross over to become an Atlantic storm.

It would be a slow crossing that would create massive amounts of rainfall posing life threatening mudslides and flash floods into this region. So.. whether it gets a name or keeps it's number it can and will create a lot of tropical trouble.

The GFS model keeps it in the picture. The EURO drops it. If the GFS & the EURO could ever manage to get along we might have world peace...  As most young, hot to trot mets prefer the EURO no one jumps on board until the EURO comes to the party.

Speaking of the Hurricane Party... El Nino it seems is late. Slowly forming ... kind of... and most likely a factor down the road, but not a big factor for the next few months. The problem with this is that unless he starts taking steroids his being fashionably late may make this hurricane season a bigger concern than most have said previously. 

Mind you I have always been a cautious believer in this whole "EL NINO COMING ON LIKE A ROCKET SHIP" to save us from hurricanes this year. I see the possibilities there, but until I see real steady, consistent proof of a BIG EL NINO I'm not factoring it in that much to my thoughts on the Hurricane Season. Thoughts on weather change daily as weather is a daily phenomenon vs climate that is long range. The same models that predicted a HUGE Hurricane Season in 2013 are the same ones that predicted the FAST & FURIOUS EL NINO of 2014. Yes, they did work with the models a bit ... but models are only models projecting a forecast... a future educated guess at what may happen. If one factor and I do mean ONE FACTOR changes do the models. Garbage in, garbage out. More better data in, more better data out as we say Down South.

So yesterday when it was apparent that this was not the Super El Nino of 1997... the CSU team upped their numbers bringing 2014 into the realm of an "AVERAGE" Hurricane Season or near normal.. whatever that means. Again...if you are hit by the one big Major Hurricane of the year then your year was definitely not normal.

A lot of meteorologists today are scrambling to explain why El Nino has not show up yet.. He may, but his name implies June is a little too soon for him to show up in most years. Can happen, but it's an exception not the rule. So...taking it day by day...

El Nino = Jesus = Decembre

Understand I have had a very long term relationship with Senor El Nino that goes back to 1974. Yeah, I know that's probably before some of you reading this blog were even born. I was a student at FIU majoring in English ... but was convinced (begged) to add on a Major in International Relations. My knowledge of geography and meteorology became a value bonus when the University was involved in ongoing academic studies. I spent a lot of time learning how El Nino created fishing wars in South America and the effect it has on world economies way before Time ever put him on their cover. 

People don't really understand that weather changes everything.. moment by moment in the world of commodities, year by year in the realm of finance and it's not just about how it changes the hurricane season. Note the posts below are all about money honey... 

So..........all those reports of "being able to breathe a sigh or relief" because El Nino may keep the numbers of hurricanes way lower have for now.... been thrown out the window. Windows shatter fast in hurricanes, according to TWC that showed a segment last night on "WHAT IF A F5 TWISTER HITS MIAMI" and it seems windows shatter in twisters too. Actually, the episode basically implied Little Havana on Calle Ocho would become part of the giant twister's debris ball :(    But, I am trying to stay on course here so I will leave my thoughts on the big cruise ship taking out the MacArthur Causeway for another time.. sooner rather than later. 

Bottom line here is this... 

Make a plan. Follow the plan.
Buy supplies when there is a "tax free hurricane holiday" before there is talk of making a "hurricane party"
Stock up when you see things you need on sale.
Get shutters for your windows or some sort of protection.
Decide if you need a generator and what kind to get..
Buy a BBQ for this summer's grilling season that has a good side case you like coffee a lot.
Do what I do and add Starbuck's canned Espressos to your drink list.. (after Andrew I would have killed someone for a can of coke.. instant coffee in cold water never tasted so good......)
Take pictures of your house and belongings NOW so you will have them if you ever need for AFTER.

Hurricane Season cannot be wished away. It's here if you live in some part of Hurricane Country. It's gonna get you whether it's this year or next year and really I'd rather take those odds than deal with the frigid misery of an endless winter or an Earthquake you cannot have time to prepare for..... or a Twister... or Flash Flood.

Here's today's big blue marble picture of the tropical world.

I'll update as events evolve today regarding Boris... if he ever becomes Boris... or Arthur... 

Stay tuned,

Besos Bobbi

Ps.. do not count your El Ninos until they hatch is my thought for the day
1972-73 El Nino Fishing Wars 


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