Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, June 01, 2014

Don't Mess Around with El Nino..Yellow Circle Today. Historic Hurricanes Often Happen in El Nino Years

I hate when the NHC does this. It is there way of saying "yeah, we see it's there and we saw the models also now move along . . .in five days or so..."

"1. An elongated and nearly stationary area of low pressure located over
the Bay of Campeche extends northeastward into the south-central
Gulf of Mexico. Although shower activity is currently disorganized,
some slow development of this disturbance is possible this week as
environmental conditions become marginally conducive.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent"

My thoughts on the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season are:

Don't mess around during an El Nino and let your guard down and think it will protect the US from hurricanes. That's an Old Wives Tale... a misconception... an Urban Legend like believing the coral reefs in Florida protect the Keys from hurricanes. Nope. El Nino may mean a quieter hurricane season in sheer numbers, but in sheer intensity it often brings us our most memorable landfalls. Remember this.. when energy is pent up over a long time and something finally breaks the log jam.. it gets messy, really messy and often memorable.

Not sure what kind of square grouper those locals are fishing for or smoking, but trust me the coral reefs in the Florida Keys do NOT stop the Keys from getting land falling hurricanes. Maybe it sells real estate or fishing trips, but it is just not true.

I have TWC on while friends are buzzing me on Twitter and I'm annoyed. It's a great story, but not the story they should be running on the 1st Day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. And, they are singing the "El Nino Blues Song" that everyone is singing.. which basically translates to .. "don't worry, El Nino, don't worry.. "

"Coastal residents might be able to breathe a little easier because of El Nino" being touted by TWC ..although they do remind you that 1 or 2 may become major hurricanes. The problems is they lead off with the "El Nino is coming..we don't have anything to worry about" message. Probably why they are in Islamorada showing off diving stories on Mission 31.. vs showing some Islamorada Hurricane History.

I know I never pass by it without taking a picture. Often times I've stopped with a friend.. walked around. thought on the 1935 Labor Day Storm that killed so many people...and washed the Overseas Railroad out to sea.. Definitely worth a mention on the 1st Day of the Hurricane Season by the TWC I believe..

El Nino Years have brought us the following Historic Hurricanes.

Look at this track and think on how familiar it looks to every model you've seen for the Caribbean/GOM possible Tropical Storm later this week..........emphasis on the "possible" . . .again note the NHC did put up a yellow circle despite the off and on support by the GFS and possible maybe from the EURO as well as the always easily excitable Canadian Model.


Remember inland was FAR inland ... up north.

Take a look at the list below that was put out by the NHC and remember it's not about quantity but about the quality of the hurricane that make landfall whether it was an El Nino year or not.

1919 Hurricane. Major damage in Key West that suffered a direct hit as did just kept going...

1957 brought us an A storm named Audrey. Note that many meteorologists insist 1957 is a good analog year for this coming hurricane season.

1983 Alicia another A storm that created massive flooding and made the list of historic storms from the NHC. 21 people died. Many injured. Never forgotten in that region... slow year.

In Miami.......1965 brought us Betsy and 1992 brought us Andrew as I have mentioned previously

then it looked like this... after Betsy.... 

Today ... wow the dollar price tag for a direct hit of say a Category 2 Hurricane would be high...
high like the beautiful Fountainebleau Tower that has since been built in quieter years..

My point here besides saying it's one of the most beautiful places I know.. Miami Beach.

If you got the money and you got the time... go for it.
You may find love or romance or a great tan... beautiful views 
I had my prom there ;)  Junior Prom ... will never forget it.
Then again I ended up living down the block from it so... if anyone knows how beautiful it is.. it's me.
Or.. my daughter-in-law who helped design the new bathrooms when Turnberry owned it.. once upon a time...I know several people who met their spouses there...  

As for me today is about talking to friends online, getting outside in the beautiful sunshine and knowing the Hurricane Season ha begun. My best friend Magda's birthday is today :) She's a lot like Marilyn Monroe also born on June 1st. I can almost smell the aroma of coffee keeping me up for the 2 AM advisories and new model runs... 

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line today is.............
Do not be fooled by talk of a "slow season" because landmark storms have made land fall in slow seasons. Make a list, check it twice...start with medications you may need.. stock up. Then move on to other hurricane supplies. And, remember over time your hurricane needs often change. 

Remember the advice of Bryan Norcross... protect your windows. Any where that hurricane force winds can get into your house is the place where destruction begins. Protect yourself, make a plan..follow the plan. As my Daddy used to say.. "you got to do what you got to do" so get out there today and do it!
If you don't have protection on your windows... get some.

So...Top Ten Things to Remember for the 2014 Hurricane Season
1. Do NOT mess around with El Nino... 
2. If you live inland on a Hurricane Tracking Map know that you can have Inland Flooding.

3. Go shopping if you live in South Florida and take advantage of Tax Free Shopping ...
4. Stay tuned and stay prepared... 
5. Follow me on Twitter @Bobbistorm and continue reading along here... 
6. Great source of information
7. The buck stops here:
8. & great websites & message boards 
9. Great deals on cruises during the Hurricane Season :)
10. It's not about the number of hurricanes that form.. it's about the hurricane that slams into your town!

Again...Hurricane Andrew made landfall in a SLOW season.. 
A storm in late August... 
Keep that in mind..

Besos Bobbi
Stay tuned... one thing I do believe is it will be an interesting season... that doesn't follow the rules.


At 10:13 AM, Blogger Unknown said...



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