NHC SAYS NADA in ATLANTIC BUT 2 RED HOT CIRCLES Compete in EPAC for Name Barbara. 2020s Keep ON 2020ing. Keep Preparing for Hurricane Season

 

Zoom Earth site above - love it!

EPAC has 2 areas trying to be Barbara.

Off the OBX is the remnants of our Low.

X Yellow area...non tropical low

Caribbean is a go for cruising.

NHC says nothing in the next 7 days.

The reason is shown below.

Windy.com filter shows SAL.

Dark colors show the extent of the SAL.

It just chokes off any moisture.

There's 2 pulses here shown.

Old one up near FL 

Next one down in ITCZ

Shuts down MDR

So what is left in Atlantic Basin?

The GFS that always tries hard to deliver.

Shows some moisture oozing up towards Yuke.

As I have said endlessly ....this region is one cohesive region with the illusion of separation because of the land borders of Mexico and Central America. Moisture oozes across the thinnest region and gets into the Bay of Campeche and tends to try to swirl up into some early BOC weak, named system. An image from the MIMIC shows this and in motion you'd see everything is being propelled West due to a very strong High Pressure area to the North of the Saharan Dust shown above. But you get the idea, how connected moisture is as it oozes up across and moves West from the moist EPAC below. And, that's the way June goes and it's why the EPAC Hurricane Season begins in May as they have abundant moisture whereas the Atlantic does not. And, lastly when there is a frontal boundary some of that moisture shuts off towards Florida feeding the rainy season there.      That's why we always watch dying frontal boundaries over warm water as they are one of the most common ways to get anything close in developing in June.

GFS not always ready for prime time.

But it shows us many things we need to see.

The image above is logical as per CLIMO

CLIMO shows us what normally happens in June.

As the GFS is more aligned with CLIMO....

...it's possible. 

Could happen.

Time will tell.

I'm not going to say "stop obsessing" because if you are reading my blog in June you are not going to ever stop obsessing and you probably have been badly burned in the past when the NHC page said "nothing for 7 days" and you ended up getting a tropical system rearrange your world and you will never forget and will continue to obsess always. I get that. Never stop obsessing on tropical weather if that's your thing.

And, in truth what we see now often relates to down the road when everyone should obsess.

1. Often Hurricane tracks in 3 to 4 weeks follow where Saharan Dust has gone before. 

2. Patterns set up and a low down near SFL & the Bahamas riding up along the coast may repeat. It may repeat at a time that the low will develop and get a name. Happens often in June into July. So when we see how strong this no name low was we keep at eye on any other lows that try and form.

3. If there's a way the BOC can get an early system to form it'll take it. Infamous for early weak storms. I used to call them sacrificial systems that once done get the season rolling.

4. People keep asking me why so many tornadoes this year and I'll answer is because there are late season fronts aligning with warm moisture from the Gulf and non tropical lows dancing along the coast of the Carolinas from a storm system that didn't quite make the tropical grade but brought flash floods and tornado warnings. Also this is Twister time be it out over Oklahoma or in Dixie Alley and they are at prime while we wait for the Saharan Dust pulses to stop pulsing and for the waters in the Main Development Region aka MDR to heat up. 

5. Just because it's "quiet" doesn't mean nothing is going to happen.

So keep watching. Often we go from "nothing for 7 days" and then on the 3rd day we get a "yellow circle with 10%" especially close in and especially in seasons with a parade of late season weak frontal boundaries and when moisture from the EPAC surges into the SW Caribbean mixing it up with what's left of a westbound wave that somehow survived the trip across the Atlantic with SAL. 

Have an awesome weekend.

I want to do something. 

What? I'm not sure. As normal .....a part of me wants to do one thing and the other part wants to do the other. Will see how my mood is and what the actual weather is like on Sunday as it's hard in this part of the Carolinas to nail down a 2 day forecast. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever

Miami girls love Gloria... 

...always and forever

Ps I'm not really Cuban but....

..I grew up in Little Havana.

My head does Spanglish

My words are English, 

pero my cadence is Spanish.

My grammar is more Spanish

Mas Espanol in my head here.

Weird but like you know.....

...if you know.

A linguist went crazy once ...

..playing with my brain.

I know I'm in a Key West state of mind....

...in the Carolinas this week.

Was in KW when she did a pop up show...

...in the middle of Duval Street.

1 2 3 4  by 5th day maybe something.

But something doesn't mean there's a name.

;)