Saharan Dust and the Waves - EPAC Signs Alvin is Forming This Week

 

NHC says we are good for the next week.

One reason why is Saharan Dust AKA SAL

Red = SAL

dark spots in the red.... tropical waves.

one coming into the Islands now...

...next wave further back.

The white areas way down low are waves.

Otherwise SAL owns the Atlantic!

The problem with SAL is it doesn't just keep the lid down low on development, but for those with breathing problems it can really make life difficult. Those with asthma and other similar diseases for sure have to pay attention, as well as the many who have some respiratory problems post Covid... be aware the Red Saharan Dust is on the way. On the plus side, if you like colorful sunsets in Miami and the Caribbean....this is your time to take photos and enjoy the tropical color. SAL represses development, inhibits it but it doesn't totally forbid it. More so the waves that are strong enough to run with SAL and not get squashed are often the ones that end up biting us badly in the you know what .....when they find a place where they can gain some traction and ventilate... breathe better. Also there is always low pressure possibilities at the tail end of a front close in........

And...there's always another wave over Africa.

Secondly, shear is there as well for now.

Nice map that Mike has on his weather page.

Currently, the Carib is not friendly.

But that could change.

Speaking of Mike......

There are some models.........

...and he shows them on his page.

So I wouldn't say it's impossible.

There's definitely a chance.

(for a friend of mine..........)

June is generally too soon...

...but it's just a li'l poem we use.

There's always a chance.

If a window in time opens up!!

Currently in the EPAC there's a BIG chance.

80% RED

I know you are thinking "the GFS"

But EURO has it in the same spot, same day.

That's one heck of agreement today.

Check the color out as ..we are on our way.

Alvin in the EPAC is likely to form.

Then..........

Count a week to ten days...

..WE will probably have a yellow circle to watch.

This time of year we watch the MJO

...and wherever it goes as it moves East 

From the EPAC to the Carib/ATL

Add in Kelvin Waves (Google that)

...signs are it'll get busier than this week.

A good post from one of my friends online.

But for the next 7 days NHC says nothing there.

Caveat is that changes in real time IF...

...something changes.

Stay tuned!

Enjoy Memorial Day!

Having Hot Dogs and Corn on the Cob tonight..

... beautiful weather in the Carolinas today.

Which it would say this way...

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

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