30% in EPAC Could Be Alvin .... Tail of a Front Should Always Be Watched As We Sail Into June. Wild Waves Rolling Off Africa... Model Discussion and Thoughts on Tropical Dreams!

 

Just reminding you........

Somewhere there's always a model running....

...long range possibilities.

The image above shows this.

EPAC logical place to start.

BOC follow the dots....

... happens early in the season.

Westbound wave near Panama

Off East Coast from old fronts.

Far fetched tropical dreams of models...

Long range models are like a love sick teenager that runs every possibility in their fast paced mind on what the chances are of going out with that person who caught their eye and how it could happen one day. They lie awake at night while long range models are spitting out wild scenarios dreaming tropical dreams that may or may not come true. Yet, no matter how much you make fun of them.........they will go on dreaming and the models will keep on running possibilities.  Gotta learn to live with it and sometimes one of those long range possibilities verifies in some way, some day. 

So let's get down to the heart of the matter. Some of us see things in satellite imagery that others do not see. DaBuh is such a person and in ways I am too. Nuances, innuendos and sometimes hearts and smiles where there's an impulse within a wave complex or at a spot in an old weak wave where it will suddenly come to life again and indicate to those paying attention where it may go.

There's a heart deep over South America.

And, there is "Alvin" in the EPAC if GFS is right.

Meanwhile we have a yellow 30% circle in EPAC.

Let's call it "Maybe Alvin"

Image above from Windy.com 

Awesome tool to do many things with.... 

Euro sees a weaker signature in EPAC

Tho what I am curious on here is this image above.

Lots of convection at the base of yet another front.

Dipping down into the Carib....

..moisture below rushing into it.

Is that something to think on?

Dream on?

Dream on.........

Note the ICON model has something spinning.

Or trying to spin in EPAC

Word on the street is........

MJO is a player in the EPAC soon.

Either way it's more likely to pop....

...than the Atlantic.

But time will tell.

In the Atlantic we look East towards Africa.

In the EPAC we look East at Colombia.

That li'l area near Panama.

A blurry heart like image shows color...

...in an old westbound wave.

Let's go wide.

You can see the color there I zoomed in on.

Front pushing East... 

...moisture on South side lingers a bit.

EPAC possibilities lit up in dark reds.

Further East... wave train.

Next wave coming off Africa is wild.

And you can see there's wave complexes.

That's important.

Bulked up they go further West... 

...more likely to survive and be a player!

But it's early.

It's like being 14 and wishing you were 18.

Like the models dream on 10 days from now.

Even if....Alvin doesn't form now.

It will sooner or later.

And there are possibilities as we get into early June..

...the Atlantic has possibilities.

So get your Hurricane Trunk filled up...

...with non perishables and First Aid supplies.

Make a Wish List...

Shop for sales.

Hurricane Season coming at u in 11 days!

One way or another... it's coming.

You can't stop Mother Nature..

...she's a BOSS

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

elsewhere if u find me...whatever.