Yellow Circle in EPAC 20% Chances of Being Alvin. Possibly. More Important is the High Is Building, Setting Up & That's a Problem!

The area I have been talking about in the EPAC...

...is now introduced by NHC at 20% Yellow 

Satellite imagery of the set up has been very consistent and it's possible that something may try and form in the EPAC towards the end of May. Day by day we are getting to the end of May fast. You'll note I showed models in several posts earlier this week that indicated development is a possibility and logical as there's abundant moisture in the region already and we are officially into their hurricane season that began on May 15th. When moisture lingers in one area over time pressures lower and all it needs is the trigger and that's usually a Low coming off of South America and/or a westbound tropical wave.

Various posts from the last few days.

Consistency is important in tropical forecasting.

Even so things can change over time.

Today's models remain ripe with possibilities.

EURO and GFS show "something" forming.

Also ....or maybe more so ....

long range models show a huge High Pressure in ATL.

Those big red eyes the size of the Atlantic below.

This is the GFS from a bit earlier today.

While I went to look at what might become Alvin.

The size of the huge High in the Atlantic...

..stole my attention.

It should steal your attention.

That high presses down on the wave train...

...moving, scooting waves fast to the West.

To the left you can see the area being watched.

Intense colors in the EPAC

It's a solid line currently to Africa.

Again it's Africa to South America...

Amazon energy enhances what's left of the waves.

Then they move West into the EPAC.

While the ITCZ is low it's par for the course in May.

We don't always have such a wave train in May...

...but this year we do. 

The solidity of this moisture is not so par for the course.

The dark blues (high pressure...dry air) push down ....

Wave stay low in June but this is May.

At some point one can break from the pack...

..and get into the Carib or the Gulf.

You can't ignore it.

Our first wave by Africa is marked.

The red Low moves West... 

...into an area moist and ready for it.

So prepare.

Things change fast in the tropics.

The waves usually show up the end of May.

But this is a healthy, early, low latitude wave train.

Please get a plan for Hurricane Season. 

12 days til June 1st!

Gotta go make dinner.

Having hot dogs tonight... 

Baked Beans, Slaw and BBQ Potato Chips

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

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Elsewhere...whatever.