Rain on the Menu for the Southeast in the Short Term. Long Term?

 

There's much discussion on the possibility of "something" developing or trying to develop in the SW Caribbean. What that could be........it's too early to tell. The GFS (smile) has shown development regularly until sometime today when the tropical system of some kind... was dropped. This is normal for this preseason period where the GFS tends to see tropical development. That said........it's still showing a moisture surge moving from this warm, moist area up towards Florida and the Southeast. And, considering models are showing the Southeast (that includes Florida) gets swamped literally in the near future from rain and so be it development or tropical weather caught up in a wild pattern that could bring enough rain for it to be a pain and for Florida to forget they were in a drought.

Short term seems a done deal.

Long term questions remain.

A developed system in the Carib?
Or just a moisture feed Northbound?

Time will tell...

GFS for May 11th.

What bothers me is this would come AFTER several days of heavy rains in this same area. The current sat loop below. Add that feed above in on top of this and it's not good. Name or no name. Preseason rain brings pain. Flooding.

That's one hell of a huge red mess of rain ...

...pattern favors it remaining around.

So hope the models for later in May are wrong.

Below you can see the Mimic.

Note there's strong convection in the EPAC

EPAC Hurricane Season begins May 15th

Over time the CAG will produce.

One way or the other.

One side of it or the other.

Stay tuned.

Prepare...

I do believe June, July will be problematic.

More on that later.

Watching feeds from Kashmir.

Again my degree is in International Relations.

Hope things settle down there.

Lots going on...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

elsewhere whatever ;)