Hurricane Harbor: Formation Zones. Danger Zones. EPAC Season Begins in 3 Days & There's Something to Watch ;) Interesting Pattern Setting up in Atlantic As the High Sets Up.

There's a bunch of convection in the Easter Pacific with multiple possibilities for development as we near the start of the EPAC Hurricane Season that begins in 3 days on May 15th. The impetus of these systems begins in the Carib often so we watch convection in the SW Carib this time of year for multiple reasons. We also watch areas of low pressure that can form and be caught up by a front exiting right stage from Florida; convection lingering at the tail end of a stalled out frontal boundary over warm waters also needs to be watched.

This time of year the formation zones are often close in and usually, but not always, they can go out to sea or not. You can follow CLIMO that is the sum total of all the daily weather over a long period of time, but you also have to know nothing is totally off the table. We learned that last June when Beryl did RI and rapidly intensified to a Major Hurricane hitting an island that statistically rarely even gets hit let alone in late June and early July when shear at the entrance of the Caribbean often hangs a "closed for business" sign when it comes to tropical activity.

You take every year as it comes... every year has it's exceptions to the rule. Beware you are not a city that has to deal with that rare exception to the rule. So don't sleep walk your way through May and June thinking you don't need to think on Hurricane Supplies until late August.