RED 70% in the EPAC... Looks Like Alvin Will Form............Factors in a Forecast For Hurricane Season......... Have a Good Memorial Day Weekend!

First off there's 70% in the EPAC

Good chances for Alvin to form there!

The Atlantic is currently quiet.

So have a wonderful Memorial Day Weekend!

Not much to say today, but I just wanted to point out a few things with regard to the coming Hurricane Season. And, in this case I'm talking about the short and midterm not the long term conditions. As I said yesterday there are many factors that can easily change quickly that impact long range forecasts. As I said yesterday wind shear is not the easiest to forecast, though we are getting better. The NOAA report said nothing about Saharan Dust and Saharan Dust is a huge factor in hurricane development. Waves can ride under them and they end up appearing "bottom heavy" as the moisture in the top half of the wave is diminished by the dry air from SAL aka Saharan Dust. Generally, SAL inhibits waves from forming early in the season. And sometimes the SAL Season goes long, and other times there's long breaks in intensity. It's an unknown and happens in real time. Sal currently is doing it's thing and waves are staying too low latitude wise to be able to develop. That's as of now vs down the tropical road.

As for water temperatures.

We sometimes see rapid changes. 

Other times the set up stays stable.

It's just an unknown and evolves in real time.

Image below from @cyclonicwx on X....

...shows "cool neutral conditions" 

Cool Neutral is favorable for development.

Another factor in tropical development.

Then again if shear is an issue...

As I said yesterday........

......it's all a mathematical equation.

Lots of factors. 

Plus and mine = ???

Time will tell. 

Time is moving fast in 2025.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever...

Hope you find a nice beach this weekend.

Pond, river, lake... some water somewhere

Ps Currently forecast signs who activity in June.

Later in June in our part of the world.

For now........enjoy the weekend!