Alvin Unraveling.........But New AOI Behind It Yellow. In ATL Long Range Models Disagree.... GFS Hot for the Gulf... EURO Zzzzz Wicked Weather for Carolinas (GA & VA too) Today

 

First line in discussion says it all.....

"unraveling quickly"

Conditions become "hostile" soon.

But it had the glory of being the 1st....

...of more to come storms in the EPAC.

But there's more where Alvin came from....

Hey all storms have their day in the sun....

..or stormy clouds ;)

Nothing lasts forever...especially early EPAC storms.

You know I've been talking on how strong the waves were off the coast of Panama, after they drop into the EPAC and flare up in various little clusters well spaced apart. I've said on X and other places that it looks like we'd have an early EPAC year and it shouldn't be long before the first storm forms. There has been a cacophony choir online with all sorts of meteorological reasons that the EPAC would have a slow start by many and I've pretty much just ignored it. 

Part of the problem these days on many fronts is that people go into a scientific experiment with a hypothesis that they have formed that is carved in stone due to their thought process on what the outcome will be. It's as if they don't see any other possibility other than what they have heard repeated and decided to believe as it fits the narrative of the story. I have learned not to argue it but to just let it roll and see how things work out. Often, not always, I'm right as I'm very good at reading various satelllite imagery and tempering them with some hurricane history and a knowledge of the biases of various models. We have come so far in tropical meteorology and yet we still have a long ways to go. Part of the allure of tropical forecasting is the many hiccups and bumps along the way that surprise us be it rapid intensification or a stubborn system that overachieves and is stronger than any model showed. 

The atmosphere is fluid, changing and rearranging always fast or slow and sometimes confounding us with surprises or delays. 

Remember that when a forecast seems like a bust, but it just takes longer than expected for a tropical wave to develop into a hurricane or to make the turn as forecast. Also now that we follow the AOI aka Invests as many of us did for years before they became public.......by the time one forms it feels as if we have been tracking it for 2 weeks. Feelings are not always facts. We watched an Invest for what seemed like forever before Milton got it going, and once it did it was very impressive.

Looks smoother and easier on the map in retrospect.

Down the tropical road in the Atlantic.

Signals conflict on development.

I can do this 2 ways so I will.

@iCyclone whose words and photos do me in...

...as much as his chasing.

The Chaser Dude has a real way with words..

..and photography.

This says it all ...if you know you know.

Mike, my friend who I can listen to forever...

...posted this today.

Note GFS hot, heavy and ready to go....

..other models not so fast.

Guess which one is the GFS LOL.

I laugh at it but I always look...

..sometimes timing is off (haha)

But it does sniff out a pattern....

Again below...nothing is the EURO

SOMETHING is the GFS

June 10th time frame

(use with a lot of sea salt...)

Remember........

You only see if you watch the GFS

Other models vaguely quiet.

Hint of some convection in various places.

But if you want thrills....

...GFS is your model ;)

Personally I have a threat for heavy weather today.

Always watch long range models.

Always watch models for the day...

...Never Stop Chasing.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever

Cannot get this song out of my mind.....