TD ONE-E Forms.....Waiting on Alvin....... Rumors of Possibilities in Carib/Gulf Way Down the Road.

 

Note that's what people ask me...

..all the newbies who moved to Florida.

Energy from it may get up into the US...

...will see down the road where it goes.

It's in an area that will have low shear and the water is warm, so it should get the name Alvin sometime in the next 24 hours. Currently the NHC keeps it as a Tropical Storm, but if you have ever played poker with the NHC you know they always open with a low bid. Can't say it will stay a tropical storm, but will know soon enough what it's got under the hood. 

How wild. Advisories, discussion and Cones.... 

Actually looks much better than this morning.

There's a center.

Bit bottom heavy but

...you can see banding on the top.

A center.

It's breathing!

3 days and 2 hours until midnight on June 1st, 2025

  

Please get a plan for 2026 Hurricane Season.

Please keep reading if you have not done so...

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From earlier this afternoon...

90E has a window of opportunity to be Alvin.

It's close. 

Waiting to see what NHC says.

When they make that call.

Some models show it's chances slipping away...

...others ...okay the GFS lol... 

Turn 90E into a tightly wound storm.

Could we get Hurricane Alvin?

Currently waiting on a TD

Gotta tell you...

..this model run may be 

the best it'll ever be.

It's not the song I was thinking of...

...but will go with the purple clouds.

It's close.

As anyone that has been reading this blog knows I'm an African Wave girl... can watch a westbound tropical wave for days and never get bored. CAG storms are a different breed, be they in the EPAC or in the Atlantic Basin. 

I'll update this blog if and when NHC upgraded this from an Invest to a TD or storm. 

Moving on to the Atlantic side of the basin that most of my readers care about, although there's always those one or two that obsess endlessly over Aussie Cyclones but let's look at what we need to know.

First off... check out those feisty waves...

Riding along beneath the SAL... 

Both westbound.

Where SAL goes ... storms'll go too!

Let's check the water temperatures.

WOW... ouch.... a hot bath tub.

Peeking at the current shear there..

Shear can change fairly fast.

What you see tomorrow....

..isn't what your see next week!

Note EPAC has shear....

Part of Carib hot without shear.

SW Carib better obviously.

Why this time of year is CAG time.

East of FL so much shear.

Though what'll be a week from now...

Who knows.

Just looking around with y'all in real time.

Look at those waves. 

They literally look like waves.

OMG look at the big one over Africa.

(yes I'm a child when looking at waves)

Noting last 2 waves in this set.....

....reaching up in latitude a bit.

Feeling it.... 

If a wave got into the Carib... maybe.

Or a bit of the CAG migrates over into Carib.

Probably.

Either way where would it go?

Long, long range models dreams...

Personally at this point in time.

I'd worry on anything getting into the Gulf.

And we still have fronts so.....

.... so maybe.

Talking long range here... 

All a matter of timing.

A westbound wave hits a sweet spot.

Ya know....

Lots of shear near entrance to Caribbean.

Shear from EPAC into BOC

Saharan Dust

And yet

Westbound feisty waves.

I'll be back when NHC blinks.

When and if they do.

Til then ...enjoy this song.

Currently one of my favorite songs.

Can listen & watch mesmerized all day!

Love horses.... 

....love love songs

Out West.... 

Great song.

Stay tuned!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

elsewhere whatever