EPAC Ready for Alvin.... Atlantic......Maybe Round June 3rd "Something" ... SAL is King in the Atlantic. But Where SAL Goes... Tropical Waves Go Too!

Looking here first as it tells the tale. 

Green moves into the Carib down the road.

EPAC red hot, candy cane red.

Alvin should form soon.

90% in 7 days EPAC - 50% in 2 days!

In the Atlantic however........all's quiet.

So NHC says nothing next 7 days.

Near that 7 day time frame...

...we might have something.

Whatever forms may form close in.

Note the convection shown in blue shades here is at an angle from SW to NE and that's because of the shear that's there in the Caribbean this time of year. The dotted light gray spots against the dark background are Saharan Dust aka SAL. Waves keep moving West with the dust. Remember that, they move West with SAL propelled West by the same steering currents that take the Saharan Dust to our side of the world. Where that takes them says much about early steering currents ...should something get into a sweet spot in the Caribbean closer to the Yucatan. 

Note the stalled out frontal boundary across Florida.

This is for June 2nd.

Those can be a recipe for tropical formation.

Especially as the water there is warmer than your tub!

A lot of rain in the South over the next 7 days.

Especially in the later time frame.

I'd say the time frame of June 3rd is interesting.

Not saying something will form but...

...saying something could.

Much will depend of wind shear.

Placement of the High.

Can we get "upward motion?"

Oh and the MJO may look to move in..

So enjoy Memorial Day Weekend!

Give thanks to those who gave their lives...

.....or fought hard for our freedoms.

And Hurricane Season is 6 days away.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere...whatever.

Loved this song since 1st time I heard it...

..whenever that was.

It was in LA... remember that!

Says it all!