Hurricane Harbor: 11 PM Update. Mixed Signals from Fiona..........Saturday Night Watching Fiona... Trying to Figure Her Out. End Game Track Seems Set in Stone... Probably. Stronger In Some Ways BUT... Not, Will Be... Where is the Real Center? Does Fiona Go to Canada? Stay Tuned.........

Radar from Puerto Rico

Fiona has a shape.

Pressures dropping but winds have not yet risen.

Motion a bit erratic also....

...tho forecast smoothes it out.

From Zoom Earth...

I like the attempt at banding.

Rudimentary...

Large arc up an attempt at consolidating.

But as always the problem has been the same.

Mid Level and Lower Level centers.

Right sided system....

"center" to the left of the blob.

But it's a better blob than Friday!

My gosh tell the EPAC to give it a rest!

They are going thru the Alphabet as if...

...it's an El Nino not a La Nina.

Not your Poppa's La Nina.

Night......will update in the morning.

Til then keep reading please.

Thanks!

9 PM

Getting that look circulation wise.

Wound up.

Armadillo meets Woody Woodpecker.

Track seems set in stone generally....

...but cone still wide.

And I'm concerned on timing.

Fiona slowing down day by day.

60 MPH at 8 PM.

At 9 PM... Fiona looks like it has an eye.

Mimic rarely lies.

Hard to believe that's an illusion.

Maybe it's an illusion.

Dvorak below... hmnn.

Weird storm.

Going to not worry on it tonight.

If I was chasing it I'd be drinking....

...try and catch a center/eye in a messy system.

Not easy.

And, yet it's forecast to be a strong hurricane...

..once out of the Caribbean.

Watching UM play Aggies tonight.
I hope.

Switching channels NC State.. UM.

Miami girl in Carolinas.

NC State Parent ...

... my graduated from UM.

So much confusion tonight.

Glad I'm not writing discussion at the NHC tonight.

It was a warm day today in Raleigh. If you were under a tree or in the shade there was a nice breeze, if not it felt hot. That time of year if you get up early it's in the low 60s and feels like Fall but if you stay out too late in the day it feels like summer. Until we get real cold fronts that blast through we are in this up and down carousel and either way I'll take it as I love the switchover to Fall. Football on TV and looping loops watching Fiona! IF Fiona came closer to OBX I'd go to the beach... but it probably won't!

One of my kids asked me about the storm the other day with regard to somewhere in Mexico this weekend and I'm really glad I didn't blow that one; erred on the forecast that it would make a turn no matter how crappy weak it was while it was pushing West. Another child flying out tomorrow to LA (no hurricane messing that up) wish I was with her because she's gonna be in Beverly Hills :) somewhere I like. This is that time of year, it begins with "I might go on a cruise and ..." and I ask nervously "when? where?" while I stay here in the Carolinas watching Fall as leaves turn colors slowly here and we have a long Autumn that usually peaks in early November. The State Fair is coming soon (advertisements everywhere) and locals always worry on cold weather or a hurricane. If there's one season I like being in Raleigh it's Winter, but my next favorite is Fall as you feel much more in the mood for Fall Food, Football and Pumpkin Spice Lattes! Still drinking frappes tho... but by State Fair time hoping it'll be cold!

That pretty much is the question of the day here.........

Cold front weather meets Hurricane Season.

Strong cold fronts always up the ante on track solutions.

They swoop down grab the front and run for the End Zone somewhere East of Bermuda.

IF the front does something funky the track can get wonky and the front can fumble Fiona.

Currently we are betting on the front, but I'm not making more than a $2 bet.

When young I'd go to Jai Alai with my father and place 1 bet for $2.

I told you I'm not much of a gambler.

I only bet on sure things.

Many models and long term forecasts have Fiona in Canada, way up there. Interesting scenario that's been talked about for a bit, water up in the North Atlantic warm enough to give Fiona way too much high octaine fuel. (Look at that cold front for next weekend for me!!)