Thursday Night. Queen Elizabeth Dies... Earl is a Strong Hurricane Near Bermuda. Plug on Danielle Pulled... Invest 95L Now Down to 60% Could be Fiona. Gaston Leaving the African Gate?

 

Earl has an eye.

Off the Coast of the Carolinas.

Near Bermuda.

Kicking up Surf Up and Down the Coast...

Earl top middle.

Invest 95L lowered to Orange 60%

Yellow Circle 30%

Below we have models for 95L

Second verse same as the first.

Or in this case third verse same as Earl.

Good Tweet from Zoom Earth....

...you can see the exposed "center"

Something there but not there yet.

Should be Fiona!

Should 95L be Fiona....

...this wave off of Africa could be Gaston.

I say "could" as this has been a season nothing should be taken forgranted. A La Nina that acts more like an El Nino with strong storms in the EPAC with moisture moving up to near the California Mexican border and an EPAC season that keeps on going without seemingly any end. Yet the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have been shut down, something we usually see in an El Nino season. MJO came and went and once we had something spinning in the Atlantic the strong, stubborn High collapsed and allowed Danielle, Earl and possibly soon to be Fiona to swim up into the Atlantic. Those of us who live along the Hurricane Coastline in the US are obviously not too upset about this turn of events. Chasers are chasing rockets trying to take off into Space and tracking volcanoes and earthquakes. Luckily iCyclone is busy building his Hurricane House in Mississippi so at least he's being kept busy, though am sure he would chase something if there was something to chase.

It's been an odd 2022, and despite the pick up in hurricane activity during the peak of the season, the set up in the Atlantic is not very favorable to long trackers except for following the leader safely out to sea.  Time will tell if the High can gain traction again and we will see if the Caribbean can produce an October Hurricane. Close in areas are always worth watching, even though even there things have been fairly quiet.

This is the radar for Florida.

A steady stream of tropical moisture training in...

Lot's of moisture.

No yellow circles.

Models very iffy on development popping up.

Yet the forecast is the same, more rain training in..

The rainfall forecast for the next week shows this above.

This is a steady, heavy amount of rain.

My blue and purple splotch map shows splotches.

This does not guarantee development.

But it's an indicator of possibilities.

Do the models show anything?

Yes and no.......

Models show a moisture train.

Just something I would watch....

...from experience.

Water temperatures are high.

Climo favors this area.

Kind of a long shot.

But it's a purple long shot!

As for the African wave...

..mixed model output.

Some models show it trying to form, staying lower than the last few and trying to make it across. There is much discussion on long range models that show the High might be reforming and that would help this wave or the next wave. But, I'm being brutally honest with you... we have a few weeks left of African Wave season and then the attention usually turns to the Caribbean and systems close in. This season is slip sliding away. Yes, we may get lots of ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) from Fish Storms cruising up into the very warm North Atlantic, but this is not the hurricane season that most forecast models indicated it would be.  

I was in Charlotte for the day. I found the Concord Mills Outlet Mall (oh my goodness) and we stopped in Pittsboro on the way back to Raleigh. Why Pittsboro? Because I like it! Good place to rest rush hour and sip some incredible Sweet Tea before driving back across the Scenic Jordan Lake with the windows down taking it all in.

I just am not ready to place bets on long tracking tropical development that goes into the Caribbean and then the Gulf of Mexico. More likely we see a weak system, similar to Earl, make it across the Atlantic and go up and over the Islands tracing the High ...wherever the high will be if and when that happens. And, Earl was an incredibly unusual large wave with a huge pocket of moisture passing energy back and forth from one "center" to another and a huge pocket of moisture and an incredibly stubborn nature. You don't find many waves like that, especialy this year!

So stay tuned. It's not over til it's over. Yes we have some tropical systems and yes they are not heading towards landfall. But, either way we have had epic flooding in many parts of the country despite a lack of tropical activity that would normally occur in a busy year.  2015 was an odd year with lots of weak development, not much landfall and yet some areas dealt with fire hose conditions of a moisture feed creating flooding despite a lack of landfall. Then Joaquin formed .....

Somehow this year reminds me of 2015 in ways.

Hard to explain ways but it does.

Joaquin was a mean hurricane.

Stay tuned for Fiona.

Should form soon enough!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm 

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter usually weather and Instagram whatever.

Ps... The Queen has died. That really was the news story of the day and possibly this week and into next week as the funeral arrangements will be lengthy and spread out over the next week or so. My mother was a big Queen watcher, tho she was more a fan of the "Queen Mum" her mother-in-law! It's kind of odd as my whole life we have had the Queen of England. I studied European History in depth for my degrees and since I was in AP European History before college in high school. There was a time I could list in order ever King of England, yet not the American Presidents. And, yet during that whole time there was no King of England, just Elizabeth II. Really an end of an era. She liked to ride horses, that made me smile as I love horses though I'm not a great rider but I do love them!

Married a long time....

...despite some issues here and there.

They seemed to like eachother.

She seemed a bit heartbroken after he died.

May they rest in peace....