20/20 on 2 Waves But Watching the One Still Over Africa...... Quiet But Not Impossible to See Development!!

 

We have one huge wave with 20% down the road.

Another pretty wave with a shape also 20% .

A front is draped across the SE

I do mean "draped" hanging there.

It will at some point push through.

Both are candidates for development....

...both are expected to recurve.

But as always time will tell!

There is another wave over Africa currently.

That wave may be "the one"

But I'm not ready to place my bets.

Saving money for Winter Weather Supplies personally.

Seriously today is a travel day once we finally get on the road. In Baltimore for this morning visiting my mother-in-law who is adorable, old, gray and thankfully still alive! Buying some things at 7 Mile Market for the Jewish New Year Holidays (that usually coincide with tropical development but who knows this year) and then going back home to North Carolina. One eye on the tropics and the other eye on local weather and watching leaves turn literally one by one. 

I'm not buying into models that have been consistently bad for long term development. Yes, they have been pretty good in the 3 to 5 day, however I can tell you the 3 to 5 day with my own eyes watching the Water Vapor Loop. 

2022 will be a year discussed for years as to why exactly we did not furfil the great expectations laid out for us by expert forecasters who did not take something into account. When something doesn't make sense, you are missing part of the equation... that "missing factor" that is usually best seen in the rear view mirror.

It's not over until it's over.

And, Mother Nature loves to take a shot at development closer in and then make a run up the East Coast either threatening landfall or actually making landfall when a hurricane is close enough to a strong diving front to ride it up the East Coast as if it's doing a tour of I-95.  They don't happen every year, but they happen enough not to let your guard down as almost always the environment changes just enough to allow something to suddenly spin up when you least expect it!

Have a wonderful, beautiful day!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

As for the models, not buying what they are selling until I see a closed Low ...then we will talk models! Yes, I am playing this song, in a yellow kind of mood. Saw lots of little yellow flowers on the way up very Spring like but in an Autumn sort of way.