Updated 11 PM - Hurricane Henri ... Strange Looking Hurricane BUT a Complex Mass of Messy Weather That Will Affect a LARGE Region from NJ NY and New England.

 

A close up of where the NHC shows the center.

Henri should slice across Long Island but...

...the center may not be there so no landfall.

But Rhode Island and CT will get a landfall.

If Block lsland gets the center then....

..there would be two landfalls.

Large cone below.

Should be a Tropical Storm at landfall but...

...what's 5 MPH difference.

issue here is flooding in most places.

Close up of NHC interactiev cone.

 Really this is a far better product.

But few show it.

Tip of Long Island there.

Small dot in the water is Block lsland.

Rl & CT in the cross hairs.

Actually with this storm everyone gets it.

There are 3 parts here at least. 

1 is Henri

2 is the front that caught Henri

3 is the mid level trough that's wrapping him up and going on a date with him.

It truly is more like a Perfect Storm ... a hurricane gong hybrid than anything else.

That said........dangers are everywhere. 

This is one of many such notices.

There is flooding in Crown Heights.

There are hills .... things can flood.

Park Slope (hills) has flooding problems.

A woman needed to be rescued from her car.

Car stalled out in the flooded street.

That's a flooded roadway in Brooklyn.

Park Slope I believe.

Car stalled out in the flooded roadway.

They had to call for help to get to safety.

JUST STAY HOME!

Somewhere in this area Henri will make landfall.

It's kind of heartbreaking in that many places further inland have had several flooding episodes over the last month. They are definitely in a wet pattern and I can't promise this will be the last tropical event this season. It would seem to be if you live to the West in the 5 Towns or Brooklyn or Manhattan you should just stay home tonight and not be part of the problem. There will be enough problems tomorrow after a night full of rain when the stronger wnds come that could take down trees across a wide area and possibly your car. You may lose power or get lucky and not lose power. But deep into New England tomorrow and further up in upstate New York there may be seriuos flash flooding. 

Today far from the tropical arena several people and two toddlers lost their life in Tennessee when a strong storm that dumped 15 inches of rain in a very short perod of time 

https://www.tennessean.com/story/weather/2021/08/21/middle-tennessee-flash-floods-deaths-triggered-by-heavy-rain/8227696002/ It doesn't take a hurricane to cause horrific loss of life and there is still a Flash Flood warning in Tennessee. Worries me what we will see by tomorrow night from Hurricane Henri!

"The Tennessee National Guard was deployed to Humphreys County to assist residents after 15 inches of rain the area on Saturday, killing 10 people and leaving dozens missing.

An estimated 40 people are missing in Humphreys County after severe flooding rocked the community and surrounding areas in Middle Tennessee.

Between 8 and 15 inches of rain fell across Houston, Humphreys, Dickson and Hickman counties, according to the National Weather Service. In McEwen, located in Humphreys County, a whopping 14.5 inches of rain fell over 12 hours, according to the Tennessee Valley Authority. Local totals may approach 17 inches as more reports come in, TVA said. 

The Tennessee Emergency Management Agency declared a state of emergency as it coordinated the statewide effort to help the affected counties."

Update Sunday Morning.

Stay safe.

Stay inside somewhere safe!

Read the rest of the blog written at 10:30 PM.

***

This is a strange looking hurricane.

It has too many moving parts.

And impacts a large area.

With vastly different dangers.

There are just so many moving parts. There are high wind warnings along the coastline far to the South of Henri that's moving rapidly to the NNE at 18 MPH carrying hurricane force winds.  There is an odd firehose like set up where currently it's shooting a heavy flow of rain towards the New Jersey coastline that is training (meaning for now the rain continues until Henri moves further North) and flooding is likely along the coast in low lying area. Further up the coast in Brooklyn there is a heavy rain and flash flood warnings that will continue on deep into the night with trees beginning to fall on unsuspecting parked cars.  After a friend left my daughter's apartment he told her to stay home and that his car is okay but a small tree fell on it so that is confirmed personally. 

NWS from Brooklyn area..

Problem of perception is difficult in that it's hard to tell people in New Jersey to stay in when the storm is obviously cruising by on it's way somewhere else yet many of the bridges have been shut down to the beaches and people are asked to stay off the highways. The whole metro NYC area will have the regular problems we saw a few weeks bac in a regular summer storm when the subway flooded in the Bronx and water ponds along the river and shuts down various highways. Again NYC is complex. Aside from being one of the most populated cities anywhere there are beaches and marshy areas and a complex web of bridges that tie it all together. If any of those tenuous connections get broken life becomes fractured easily especially if the power goes out. 

Then further East you have the island of LONG Island which is thin narrow and is due south of most of New England parralleling Conneticut but it is not considered New England but obviously New York and the tip of Long Island is a frequent crossover spot for New England hurricanes. And this seems to be one of those hurricanes that will cross Long Island (though if it gets the eye or not is in question) and both shores have different flooding issues.  

So my concern here is that unlike most hurricanes the rain may be strong on the left (West) of Henri after landfall vs the right side (East) and if the storm does in fact stall or slow down this could be long term event and that adds to misery that could mount in dangerous ways. 

Where will it make landfall? Part of me wants to stay it doesn't really matter. Because it's not a tightly wound up hurricane wth a tight core of hurricane force winds and if it is a hurricane at landfall is still debateable it is a large messy weather with a complex set of dangerous conditons forecast to crawl for hours across an area prone to flooding in many places from New York City to Long Island to Boston. MORE SO... the whole CT area as well as MASS has had recent flooding from multiple summer storms and the remnants of Fred. 

As Henri is moving with the renmants of a frontal system and an approaching trough it almost feels like a mini version of The Perfect Storm that I wrote on this week. Time will tell and the time is overnight and into the early hours of the morning.

What could be done should have been done and now we wait and watch in real time.

Excuse me for not covering Hurricane Grace that made landfall as a Major Hurricane. Most of my readers are on the East Coast or along the Gulf of Mexico and so Grace was on the back burner here. BUT it was much more of a real dynamic and intense hurricane than what we have with Grace. However Grace will be a huge story and possibly memorable weather event even without the beauty of the form of Grace.

More to come..

BobbbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Some hurricane history ... people complain about the NWS and NHC when they get some detail wrong but in 1938 people went out for picnics and never returned when a strong hurricane sped towards the area without any real warnings...  a horrible end to what was probably a beautiful summer. So give thanks we have so much warning and information but it's up to you to heed that warning!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcslnVcTHz0