Updated 6 PM. Thoughts on NE Landfall Possibilities - Hurricane Grace Doing the Yucatan NOW... HENR East of Florida Worrying New Englanders. Does Henri Follow the Consensus or Become a Tropical Problem? Stay Tuned...

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/providence.htm

Rhode Island is small. 

So use either point of reference.

Is Henri trying to thred the needle.

And make a landfall on Rhode Island.

Happens but usually they get lucky!

Leading here with the NWS for Block Island ...Rhode Island. Note they show Tropical Storm conditions possible over a LONG period of time in their current short term forecast.  The NHC cone below shows a threat and their discussion had more ifs and buts and tried explaining the two step that the models have done this afternoon with Henri. Let me make this clear. Henri has not followed the models much nor cared one bit about anything and continued to do what he wants to do and it may be worth mentioning my comma is not working. Need to switch laptops for the rest of Henri.  Henri is still moving West at 10 MPH and is still down by Florida close enough to hear the roar of cars at Daytona. Okay not that close but the surf is up and everyone is talking New England when it's down near Florida still. My point here is that timing is everything and the further South and weak Henri is ...the easier it is for the various forces up in the atmosphere to not be able to rock solid grab Henri and so there Henri swirls offshore being blocked from exiting and dumping huge amounts of tropical rain on New England and Long Island. Look close up at that forecast above and it's from the National Weather Service so it's as official as the NHC.

I could wax poetic on models but most did not see Henri especially the EURO once king but falling fast these days from his throne. This situation needs to be monitored carefully but until Henri himself MOVES in some direction other than West and where he makes that turn be it fast or slow extrapolated down the road makes a difference. A Cat 3 Henri would more easily feel the currents and if you look at the water vapor loop it's clear that it's still being pushed and held down. Being held down is the issue here with Henri because the escape that  most storms like him make is being blocked and he is being held down and possibly drifts West towards landfall so maybe watch the NWS out of Block Island more than the NHC currently. Just my thoughts tonight as models play games trying to predict what Henri will do and people ignore he is still not a Hurricane and still moving West at a low latitude.

https://www.wsoctv.com/news/local/least-30-unaccounted-north-carolina-county-following-historic-flooding/JODMAJRLBNH6ZKHWSYZ4DTENVY/

A reminder that it doesn't take a major hurricane to cause loss of life. Fred moved through Western North Carolina far away from it's rather mild coastal impact and caused flash flooding in an area where many people park campers in the forest together to enjoy the summer. Wasn't so enjoyable this week and 22 people are missing and two bodies have been found sadly the death toll will climb considerably. Between riptides at beaches far from the storm and inland areas that get strong winds and rain that create localized flooding as well as trees down and power outages up the misery even if you do not get the eye of a hurricane.

please keep reading from 4:30 PM earlier.

Back to back weather from storms is a pattern.

2021 Hurricane Season is East Coast Loaded.

Will say it again and again.

Update 4:30 PM 

 

www.tropicaltidbits.com

My concern is a double hit.

Remnants of Fred and then Henri.

2 back to back hurricanes in the NE.

Fran hit NC then went North.

Edouard had a simlar track.

Because a pattern was in place.

Fred was a much weaker tropical storm than Fran or the E storm but the pattern of East Coast action and far to the North in the New England area is something that hits me as simlar. Similar time of year more or less too so could Henri move towards New England and impact land? Yes. Could it move away? Yes. Could it impact the area with damage and possibly death even moving away? Yes. There are people in North Carolina still missing and most likely dead as feared from a Flash Flood that Fred was responsible near Asheveille. You don't need a Major hurricane to have major damages and death so keep that in mind regarding Henri.  Will update after the 5 PM package is out. 

Models are trending West.

Will update at 5 PM.

Hurricane Grace over the Yucatan

TS Henri South of 30 N.

Short blog this morning.
Long blog later this afternoon.

I'm pressed for time this morning and I'm going to write a regular, longer blog later this afternoon. I'm using this image at the top to remind you that Henri is South of 30 latitude North still moving over the Yucatan. It's important to remember that the Yucatan is relatively flat and not Hispaniola. I read too many times last night on Twitter how "the Yucatan" will take a lot out of Grace and I grimmaced because no it really is not going to take a lot of out of Grace. Grace is in fact forecast to move into the Pacific and possibly stay alive in that ocean. The Yucatan is NOT Hispaniola; geography is an important part of the study of meteorology as is the knowledge of oceanography should weather get out over the ocean and it's inhernt currents! The mountains of Mexico may take a huge bite out of Grace, possibly even destroy it or not and we will see in real time how that battle will end!

The above is the hurricane track map from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (yes they spell it that way) and it allows you to see the topography of the land including the mountains, the hills and the flatlands such as Florida. Their cone like ours shows New England in the cone of Henri but more of the ocean is in the cone so the chances still are that Henri will stay out at sea. You can't bet the farm on that currently as it needs to be watched but still the chances, the sum total of most tropical storm tracks over history have stayed offshore. The problem is will this one go with the sum total of historical tracks or will Henri go down in history as one of those analog storms for other storms in this particular area looking to take aim on New England or Long Island directly?  Will it stay offshore and still impact New England in some way? That is really the question currently but again remmeber it's still down at the same latitude as Florida!

The NHC measured the atmosphere last night, dropped dropsondes into Henri and checked what now seems like a million models and they made a cone based on the consensus of the models and they will update at 11 AM and 5 PM. Between now and then we will see what Henri actually does in relation to it's forecast movement.  Sometimes you don't know until later on and as good as we get Mother Nature gets better. Think of it as "the variant" which by the way has a "the" in front of it whereas Covid simply seems to be a noun. Things change, things evolve and in real time we try to grab onto the exact details of "the Variant" and "the vaccine" and as much as we learn we really do not know how it is going to turn out. We know how we hope it will turn out ...obviously... but hoping and guessing is still the best we can do in the short term.

The data is below. This is where we are. Grace is doing the Yucatan before going out to sea again in the Bay of Campeche. Henri is offshore Florida, South of Jacksonville from a latitude perspective and it has miles to go before anyone gets any sleep.

Notice the parity.

75 MPH and 70 MPH.

Both going West tho Henri moves slowly.

There is some piece of this puzzle that is still a mystery and it will show itself in real time. In truth if you live in hurricane country be it Texas or Florida or Maine you should be prepared already as we are deep into August at this point and September is around the corner. If you have not planned yet for a landfalling hurricane to rock your world you are obviously one of those people who will be at your local Publix looking for tuna and all that will be left on the shelf is canned oysters. Hope you have one of those crazy relatives who ran out early on and has all your favorite tuna in a box somewhere in the den like my brother does ;)

Will update later this afternoon after I take care of some business and look at the satellite loops and compare and contrast them with what the models are offering me for lunch!

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and instagram.