UPDATE 8 PM - Henri Moves Towards Landfall. NYC NY NJ NE in the Cone! Grace in the BOC Headed to Landfall 2021 Year of Landfalling Hurricanes. What is the Eye of a Hurricane Like? How Bad Do You Want to Know?

Updated cone from NRL (NAVY)

They often foreshadow changes NHC makes later.

Note the shaded grid goes out towards Syracuse.

The area of Tropical Storm force winds is small.

But hardwood trees go down fast in strong winds.

AND THE GROUND THERE  SATURATED..

..especially in New England!

New York in the Cone.

But this includes areas like Monsey..

Catskills where people need to pay attn.

Do not just think "oh it will turn away out to sea"

Models here show just the opposite it could turn in..

..much like Sandy did.

Henri expected to be a hurricane by 11 PM.

Recon in the storm now... 

8 PM  Update.

Models all turning in sharply West.

I'll be on Saturday evening.

Please use www.spaghettimodels.com

for all your information and graphics.

Henri now 70 MPH

Moving N at & MPH

* * * 

Watching Henri.

Sorry I'm ignoring Grace.

Actually a beautiful hurricane.

Making landfall.

Note how 2021 storms make landfalls!

In the BOC about to make landfall.

Filling up the BOC.

They are beautiful when they do that....

Then we have Henri.

They do look related - don't they?

Problem is Henri is forecast to also make landfall.

In a very populated area rarely getting landfall.

Often hurricanes make impacts in the NE.

But a direct hit is  more rare than you would think.

And I'm worried on other concerns.

Any variation West of this track...

more coastal cities in the Cone. 

Yes the bullseye is the real storm.

But the shaded grid means "watch out"

Watch out carefully!!

Latest models are not being kind.

Outliers track Henri into NJ.

Most do not but it's been consistent.

From run to run.

And the trend with models is what we watch.

Now we watch to see what Henri does.

And what the NHC does at 5 PM.

I'll put the new Cone at the top obviously.

Just giving some thoughts before the 5 PM is out.

Henri is so close.

In the curve of the Georgia Bite.

(Google that, fascinating Cane history)

Taking the bulk of him North towards landfall.

If only it could slip away out to sea.

But wishing doesn't make it so!

A hurricane, and Henri should be one soon, is the sum total of all it's weather dangers. A big major hurricane tends to hypnotize us and we watch the eye as if it imparts some sort of fantastic energy into our mundane lives. We both worry and wish the eye would come over our house and we will have the opportunity to take the lawn chairs out into the driveway and watch blue sky overhead for the 20 or 30 minutes that the wind stops roaring and everything hangs in suspension as we marvel at the magnificence of Mother Nature before racing back into our boarded up homes at the first gust of the backside of the eye returning bringing with it more intense energy and the sounds of things outside taking flight in the hurricane's backside. Been there and seen it and when all is said and done it was worth the week to ten days without electricity after the eye moved on to some other place where someone else worried and wished to get the chance to state into the eye of a hurricane.

You wonder why storm chasers chase? We become addicted to the energy, to the sky and the panorama taking in the hurricane with all our senses. Hurricanes are raw they have an organic quality to them unlike fake orange flavored soda but more like freshly squeezed orange juice from oranges on the tree in your own backyard. And, it's way safer to fly into an area and set up a location to tackle the hurricane safely than have it come visit you and rip apart your front porch and take down your Elm tree and flood your basement. You experience the wind and the waves and oh my gosh that incredible roar of the wind that you only hear in a real hurricane that washes over you, through you and you wait to hear that roar again as if comes in waves in gusts within the hurricane. Eventually the hurricane has moved on and you relive the sounds, the actual moaning of metal on some unknown object that was shaken loose in steady 110 mph winds. You remember hearing the sound of the distant surf, not so far away but close enough to hear in the stronger gusts as they shake your structure briefly and then move on to shake someone else's world.

My question for today is which city is going to end up hosting Hurricane Henri in the Northeast? Will some distant beaches not inside the cone get hit by extremely strong, fast moving squalls and end up flooding some and washing out roads? Will people on Long Island that had damage to their basements from Sandy once again? Over history hurricanes have stormed past the Outer Banks and made a beeline for some unfriendly city on Long Island that got to experience the hurricane first before Block Island or Hartford or distant Boston feels the blow of a hurricane. Sometimes hurricanes can be fickle and the track can sneak in to the South somewhere in New Jersey and sometimes they can slide up along Delaware, Maryland and New Jersey when everyone was sure it would stay far out at sea.

You want to know where soon to be Hurricane Henri will go and the truth is we will see in real time over the next 18 hours if the track the NHC is putting out will verify. Why? Because it needs to cover a long distance over a short period of time, after changing direction and follow the plan. So far Henri hasn't been one for following the plan, because it stayed South of West for way too long a period of time for any of those short term forecasts to verify. 

I'm hoping the forecast verifies because it's extremely important for people living in Hurricane Country to have faith in the NHC and their predictions. As it is now in South Florida many believe there is some sort of "dome" protecting them and all hurricanes will veer away from the coastline before making landfall. This is NOT the year to believe in that fantasy as this year is the Year of Landfalls and the pattern favors more East Coast Hurricanes be they Ft. Lauderdale hurricanes or Savannah hurricanes or even New York City hurricanes and it's not beyond the realm of possibility and history for a hurricane to slide up into the Potomac and head North towards Baltimore Harbor on it's way somewhere else.

Waiting on the 5 PM advisory package. 

Grace is pretty much a done deal.

Not so Henri ... so we wait to make sure he doesn't have any tricks up his sleeve!

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