Is This the Year of El Nina? Tropical Waves VS El Nino. Trouble Close In. Key West History...

A few things to say this morning.

#1 Yes Texas it's Summer. It gets HOT HOT HOT!!! We know... It's late July and the weather people are all over it. Declaring how hot it is... how muggy it is... how high the HEAT INDEX will be...

(don't get scared... it's Summer........it's normal for Summer)

#2 The HEAT warms up the waters even more so that the threat of "Close In" action is more possible to rear it's ugly, hot head again especially in an uneven El Nino Year. Note the hot pool of water off the SE coast from Cuba to Key West to Bahamas to Carolinas...as well as areas in the Gulf of Mexico. This is where we look for development in an El Nino Year.

#3 Just because a wave dies out does not mean it is dead, especially in this particular year. What looks like it dies, plays possum while wetting up the atmosphere and it could flare up again closer in. And, sometimes it's purpose is to make the atmosphere more hospitable for the wave behind it. Yes, for old times the Jim Kiick and Larry Czonka reference.

A good football team has a balance, one player works in coordination with another. When a hurricane comes together, many pieces of the puzzle have to fit into place.You can stand around screaming EL NINO or LA NINA and perhaps 2015 is the year EL NINA should show up (think on it) it's not just about a good quarterback as he (or she) needs someone to throw the ball to and someone to protect the quarterback when he is in the pocket. Let's put it this way: A quarterback needs a pocket to properly do his thing.  A tropical wave needs a wet pocket of moisture to properly stay together, move west as an entity and develop further than an Invest. One goal of early waves is to prepare the field for the real players, the way Pre-Season is supposed to bring together the strongest players for the Prime Time Season.  Currently, we are in Pre-Season in the tropics and yet we have had 3 named storms some making landfall. It doesn't really matter if El Nino is out there, as there will be some development of waves into storms this season. Some development of stormy weather at the end of early season cold fronts. The players are there even if they are hiding today. Each season has it's unique storm. You only need a pattern to flip for a week or ten days and as they say on any given Sunday any team can win.

Yes... Hurricane Season is a lot like Football Season. The players both take the field at the same time of the year. Everything needs to come together. Some years have great memorable games and a lot of parity and other years are........8-8 "oh well wait til next year" sort of seasons. This time of year is a real tease isn't it?

Sometimes a wave goes into stealth mode.... flares up later.

Sometimes it's just smuggling guns for the real player later....

It's the tropics.

Been smuggling rum and guns since the Cuban Revolution... 

When people in Key West raised money for Jose Mari . . .

I know.

Know why?

My great grandfather was up there on that balcony.... 

Read and learn:

http://wlrn.org/post/when-key-west-was-cuban

Key West by the way is on Jim William's Top 5 cities.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/predictions.htm

Sigh. 

For once I am hoping he's wrong.

I'll be there this week... 

...lighting a candle and feeling the tropical heat.

#4 Where is the fourth storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season? Danny....

Any meteorologist who simply rewords the discussion from the NHC and likes to take personal credit for killing off a wave is nothing more than a well trained parrot dressed up GQ for the nightly news. You know "LIVE AT 5... TROUBLE BREWING IN THE TROPICS" and then the next day saying "NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT ANYMORE" isn't telling you the whole story.

The whole story is that waves come and waves go. Waves flare up and waves provide juice for the next wave. Patterns flip and for a week or two suddenly there is an opportunity for any team to win even on an El Nino Sunday!

On www.spaghettimodels.com there is the above graphic.

Usually shows you the Real-Time.

If you click you see more images.

Compare and contrast.

This year we have healthier waves than usually.

Yet, that is off set by a really good pass defense set up by...

EL NINO

Africa keeps firing off waves like balls in a pin ball machine.

Nicely spaced waves. Strong. Healthy Waves.

The season is not over.

The year has not ended

(unless you're a a JETS fan and left the stadium...)

This is summer.

It's the mean season.

Hot in Dallas and Atlanta.

Hot in the water off the coasts of the US.

Unseasonably hot close in...

Danger Zone...

The season ain't over... you can take that to the bank.

This wave or the next wave... 

One will catch fire.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

Stay tuned.... 

Those mets who said nothing was happening will be back.

With LIVE at 5... "Something brewing in the tropics"

Besos Bobbi

Ps If I have to see one more Meryl Streep coming attraction going to lose it.

She looks good in person by the way, it's not all make up ;)

Where will the storms go that is the question....

Around the HIGH

W... WNW... ???