Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, July 17, 2015

INVEST 93L Forms in the Atlantic. Also Convection in E GOM Bears Watching... Where's Danny? And Erika?

The wave has a small window for development in the near term. I'm a bit more curious what it will do in the long term if it stays together as an entity. This is the season of "close in" development, so I'm not expecting it to develop now. I'm more curious where it will be and what the conditions will be like down the tropical road. If you get my drift.... as in CLOSE IN vs far out in the messy Atlantic.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Check the image below and understand the problem ahead of the wave.

Note the shear from the East Carib ENE...

This is normal for this time of year.
It's what we call a part of "CLIMO" . . .
East Caribbean is often the cemetery of tropical waves.
However, sometimes they wander past the shear...
And, develop somewhere else.

Note the ongoing convective feature in the Eastern GOM.
Note the consistent convection off of the Carolinas.

Where's the wave going?

I've put together this collage of model imagery 

Let's look at one close up...

See the problem here is.........
IF this wave survives... My wave ;)
It wants to take a left hook... 

Join the conversation...

For now we are just watching..............waiting..............

This is a long term wait and see wave.
A Cape Verde Wave. 

Actually it has been designated as Invest 93L

For now they will be slicing and dicing Invest 93L

I want to raise a thought here to ponder on...

This might not be Danny, but the E storm.
That's a very far out thought, but possible.

The D Storm could form close in... 

Door #1 is obviously Invest 93L

Door # 2 could be in the E GOM

#3 would be off E Coast... a real real long shot.

There's no evidence to say this will play out.
But, it's possible. 
Water in Eastern GOM is very hot.
Close in is where it's at this year..
Convection has been consistent now for days.

You can sing along with Jimmy...

Keep watching... 

I'll be back with more information when there is more information.
The thoughts I'm sharing with you are obvious.
It's easy to just tell you what the models think...
But the models didn't really see Claudette coming...
Did they?

This is a watch and see set up and we won't know much until Monday.

Besos Bobbi


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