Invest in the Gulf of Mexico. Caribbean Water Hot! Cape Verde Wave 40% &... Cristobal.

Invest 98L forms in the Gulf of Mexico... it's an area of low pressure, convection and a semblance of a swirl being investigated for further ...formation actually. But, we in the tropical business get so excited over a new "Invest" so... putting it up here to start off with as it has more possibility for impacting land than Cristobal.

This column should be named "Lessons I learned from NHC Director Bill Read" because learned a lot from Bill in conversations at programs held at HRD in Miami.

HRD = Hurricane RESEARCH Division vs NHC National HURRICANE Center.
At HRD they work on research all year long as well as when planes go into hurricanes. At NHC they forecast where the storms will go and ...work on research as well.

It's one of those which comes first the chicken or the egg things.

Bill moved to Miami from Texas. His understanding of Gulf Systems and their inherent, compelling problems of being born so close in vs big, lumbering Cape Verde Hurricanes that Miami kids grow up watching.

I have to admit, most Miami kids stop watching a hurricanes once they make it safely past Pensacola with a sort of "oh it's going over there" mind set.  In the Atlantic they watch until they make it north of JAX because there's always this thought it could loop back like Betsy... but once bound for La/Tx they aren't doubling back to South Florida. A few odd exceptions in the GOM... but you get the idea they are gone, gone, gone.

In Miami we watch every wave westbound out only in the shipping lanes waiting for them to get to our part of the world. We watch as they move towards the islands and wonder which island will get hit. We watch as they slam into PR or move up and over PR and then we watch them move closer and closer.. And, we wait for that almost always recurve out to sea off shore. Then... sometimes... we watch everyone go crazy preparing for those one or two that make it onto the beaches of South Florida.

The wave over Africa is more than 10 days away yet people in Miami are watching it.



Note how fast the color blows up on this satellite loop. Nothing.. nada... BAM! Hello Invest 98L. Yes, the models were teasing a bit and we've all been peaking at it while watching Cristobal but suddenly it's there.

Way over there to the left of the screen behind the blackout area is a wave just coming off of Africa that Miami kids who are into weather are watching.  No, they aren't watching the area in the Caribbean that is blowing up today from interaction of an old wave and the monsoon trough like area near Columbia. They aren't watching Cristobal cause he is gone...gone...gone and no one is watching the GOM in South Florida.

But... for the people along the coast of Texas and Louisiana all tropical eyes are looking south at that area of convection just off shore, close in that could flare up and become a named storm.. move towards land and make landfall in a 48 hour time span. Probably not this one as if it forms it will most likely move west into Texas where they can use the rain. But... that is what often happens in the GOM when storms form just offshore. There is no 5 day lead time or 1 week...or 10 days like with Cape Verde Waves. It's in your face, 1, 2, 3... BAM before you know it. You have to stay alert. You have to have your hurricane supplies and evacuation plans in place to implement quickly.

One long coastline that stretches from Tex-Mex to Maine that can be impacted by Tropical Cyclones and yet each area has their own unique problems.



You can see the spin... it's there.. there should be a floater or Invest up soon. Will it get a name before it runs out of Gulf water? Time will tell.

Note that the convection is a bit misplaced in this loop, but does blow up BIG and as I said FAST. It's having problems wrapping the convection because of shear. If the shear lessens it may develop.



And, this is why we watch the GOM storms carefully as they change FAST in real time and IF they form..they make landfall fast!

And.................there are also other threats in the GOM...those being west bound Cape Verde Waves that come further south than most this year and that go under Cuba...up through the Yucatan Passage and target some nice GOM beach as their final destination.

Currently in the tropics we have a before image and a after.

Our HURRICANE Cristobal off the East Coast headed out to sea.. 

Amazing that Cristobal made it that far shlepping the other X still spinning on in it's wake to the S..

Look at that loop carefully and try to do so without scratching your head.

And note the interplay between the dry air and the moist air 

both exhilarates and keeps Cristobal in check.. 

Dry air near a Hurricane can act much like an ULL on a wave... 

blows it up a bit but in the long term keeps it from doing much more than flaring up

and down

and up

and down..

Moving on to the GOM

The Invest area is moving generally West..

it's convection is moving generally NE

The sun just rose over it... our first good morning visible.

Our Invest in the GOM has a 20% chance of developing in the short term... 

The wave that now is no longer & X but has an area of potential development in the long term is forecast to move into the Caribbean and that's interesting. A break in the pattern as the High moves a drop more to the West... splits in the Atlantic just enough to allow the new wave off of Africa a way out to the North ONLY IF IT INTENSIFIES FAST... if it is a slow developer as the EURO is hinting and the pattern suggests it will continue west bound like the ones before it.

The wave off of Africa has a 40% chance in the LONG term of developing.

The Invest in the GOM has a 20/20 chance of developing..short term long term..not vision.

The area in the Atlantic that I don't think is worth writing off for the long term has a 10% chance.

Again..curious to see how it interacts with the monsoon trough that is flaring up this morning.

Discussion on the convection in the Caribbean is buried in the Tropical Discussion:

"CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND 87W 
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NORTHWARD TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. THIS 
CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE 
INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THIS PART OF THE BASIN. OTHER CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTION. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD 
ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN 
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 
KNHC...WAS 0.10 IN GUADELOUPE AND 1.79 IN TEGUCIGALPA."

Read more on this here.......... 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/271158_MIATWDAT.shtml?

Good link to keep track of any interests you may have in the Caribbean.

http://stormcarib.com/

Otherwise... keep checking in here and at Spaghettimodels.com as Mike is covering the whole tropical shebang... as always. sats, models and discussion...links, loops & xray vision down into the storms.

Went to Wrightsville Beach yesterday. Nice place.. not really my type of place as I prefer my water warmer and more colorful, but it's a beach. Surfers were out and working with the strong rip tide and waves that got better later in the day. This picture was early in the day.

There is something seriously wrong about a beach where the sand is not hot in late August.

Then again.. leaves are turning on the Maple trees up here & it's been in the 60s at night.

The color of the water is way too deep blue...dark blue.

Yet...the surfer from Seaside NJ loves it because the water is so warm down here...

(rolling eyes)

The picture was taken from the pier. The pier was rebuilt after Hurricane Hazel took it out..

http://www.johnniemercerspier-nc.com

Ended the day at a nice place where I went to the watch the sunset over one of the inlets rather than the river in Wilmington where we usually go. Chose the place as it's on the East side of the inlet facing West so in theory you could watch the sun set over the inlet. When I got there they had a shade pulled down low so that the sun wasn't in the eyes of the diners. I swear I will never understand the mindset of people in NC.. never ever.  She explained to me the diners don't like the sun in their eyes. I explained if the shade was down you can't see the ...sun set over the water. I begged her to let me sit at the far end where there was no shade allowing me to watch the sunset. After I left they had a whole discussion about the shade and raised it a bit. The diners sipping their wine not watching the water at all didn't seem to notice one way or the other.

This is what we do in Miami... we sit outside on a deck over looking the water by the setting sun to watch the sun set over the water.  

Just blows me away up here. A lot of great people, places and despite the pretty sunset I won't be rushing back any time soon. Rather watch the sunset form Morehead City or Atlantic Beach..or Myrtle Beach or Miami Beach ;) or a rooftop in Savannah setting over the river. But...it was pretty. Shame the drinks were so watered down. The food looked pretty good. Went for a drink and a chance to watch the sun go down...  Won't give the name.. because I sort of trashed the place. Okay was Bluewater.. not bad for most people, but most people are not as particular about sunset views or the water or their tropical drinks as I am... I'm a Florida girl spending time up here and at times it is beautiful. At times every where is beautiful... got to learn to enjoy small moments of nice in the overall mix of life.

Read more on Bill Read. A good man who was a  good person to take over at the time he did and he is remembered fondly.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/qa/201205_bill_read.php

Besos Bobbi

Ps... WHY am I OCDing on the Caribbean? Because the water is HOT if anything flares up there it has a lot to work with and can only go two ways. West into Central Amerca or North up towards Cuba and the US.