Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, September 14, 2013

2nd Hurricane of the Season - - Hurricane Ingrid



Sort of impressive. Once that log jam gets broken... it's broken. We now have the second hurricane of the Season.

Hurricane Ingrid is down in the BOC swirling around doing a loop and taking advantage of the protective environment to strengthen.

There are several areas to watch over the next few days. There is an Invest near Africa that has high chances of forming into a storm. The future tracks would basically do a Humberto Sequel.

Worth noting that with the strength of Ingrid only going to increase the chance of her going further to the north is on the board. Corpus Christie has the same odds as Veracruz. Stronger storms are more likely to go north... if all else is equal. All else may not be equal as it is affected my many factors. Tomorrow should tell the story. Some models show it being as strong as 100 MPH which would make her ultimately a Category 2 Hurricane if the intensity models are correct.


CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

GFMX 250N 960W 34  2  14(16)   5(21)   2(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

LA PESCO MX    34  1  19(20)  52(72)   5(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)
LA PESCO MX    50  X   3( 3)  22(25)   4(29)   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)
LA PESCO MX    64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

TAMPICO MX     34  2  18(20)  46(66)   4(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   3( 3)  18(21)   6(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
TAMPICO MX     64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

TUXPAN MX      34  2   4( 6)  10(16)   4(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
TUXPAN MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

VERACRUZ MX    34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)


You may remember the other day I showed the big blue satellite image of the globe and mentioned that Ingrid was the Eastern part of a large elongated area of tropical weather.  The Western side has also developed with the name Manuel.

The wind graphic for the region shows that best.



Mexico is in for a lot of rain from these storms.

  Rarely do I show the EPAC but in this case it's relevant to the story in the Atlantic.

Where EPAC systems often go West out to sea. Manuel is forecast to make landfall.

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Ingrid is forecast to make landfall.

Note the words of the NHC regarding Manuel.

..HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED AS MANUEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE...

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Mexico is in for a lot of rain from these storms.

Mexico is in for a lot of rain from these storms.


I can't keep repeating it and mud slides in small villages and loss of life and it's not a good situation.

I'll be back tomorrow with more information.

There are a few other areas worth talking about. 

There is the area that was a yellow circle that lost the yellow circle, but may get it back if it continues to maintain convection or pressures drop. 


A strange, complicated year for the tropics when there is no normal.

Stay tuned. At some point there will be a third hurricane somewhere soon before September is out.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

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