50% Orange Circle in BOC. Nothing Much Happening in the Atlantic for the Forseeable Future
There's a feeling of the two systems interacting with each other. One has lower pressure and less convection, the other in the Northen Gulf has more convection and less low pressure. Go figure..
8PM Discussion from the NHC on Invest 95
1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. WHETHER TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OCCURS OR NOT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
There is a fifty percent chance of development in the Bay of Campeche and that bears watching.
Next week there is an area in the Atlantic that is high lighted for possible tropical development.