Sunday Morning ...Reality Bites.....HURRICANE EARL HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

All the forecasting and wishcasting and hoping and insisting and Hurricane Earl is headed into towards the Leeward Islands.

It's that simple.

This is why people are paranoid (for good reason) about Hurricanes and forecasted track. Because often they get shifted and shifted until the everything's changed and then the hurricane is said to come within the parameters of the track forecast which it did do because they kept shifting the track. It's a slippery slope once you do that and with a storm like Earl it makes it worrisome for future forecasts.

Why? Because the NHC is so bad at what they do? No... no they are good. The problem is Earl's real center has been neatly hidden and oozing around in a large pocket of moisture which this year's in term is "pouch" and when he starts to crank up he is going to be one BIG HUGE storm... if he does and I believe he will so we need to watch him carefully.

This is discussion from less than 48 hours ago... notice where Earl's position is supposed to be in 120 hours.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE CIRCULATION...THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. USING ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA...THE
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
EARL IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
AFRICA WESTWARD TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. EARL
SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AS IT APPROACHES 60W WHERE THERE IS A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...BUT BIASED TO THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 15.5N 40.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 42.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 16.3N 46.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 16.5N 49.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 16.7N 52.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 18.5N 58.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 21.0N 62.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 24.0N 65.0W 100 KT

Where is Earl today??

LOCATION...17.1N 57.6W

He is always west of the projected forecast point. He has always taken the bottom side of the cone and remember that can change but for now we have to be careful and believe he is going to continue to so so until we can see a really, nice, STRONG, front waving lots of red color on a satellite loop like a matador trying to attract a bull nicknamed Earl.

Check the archive maps on Earl from the NHC

Where is he going tomorrow??


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_3NLW.shtml

Earl seems to be everyone's storm.. people in the Carolinas are watching, people in Florida are watching and people in the Northern Leeward Islands are no longer watching they are boarding up as Earl is headed towards the Northern Leeward Islands.

A friend IMed me last night to tell me she is SURE it's a Miami storm. Local media along the Carolinas are watching carefully. Hell... bet Meteorologists in Cuba are watching and the mets I know are looking more and more "ummmm" and singing the "we think it will find the weakness in the ridge shuffle" and when asked... I would say it will find the weakness too but when and where...

I have a house guest named Doug, God Bless Him. He is hopefully in remission from cancer though I am not sure on the remission as he doesn't like to talk about it much. He said goodbye after lunch on Shabbos and said he wouldn't see me for a a long, long time as he is hitting the road and going to see family for a few months. Twenty minutes later he was back, seems the other house he is staying at had locked the doors and he couldn't get in. We ate dinner. He left, said goodbye. He is leaving for Canada as soon as he gets up. He is sleeping now in the guest room as I type this after saying "goodbye" three times. He will leave, but I'm thinking at the moment he is a lot like Earl. Stubborn, determined, fighting off shear and going to catch that weakness in the ridge... really, soon... any day...

Timing is everything with Hurricanes and life.

As for me I am straightening my bangs, we are having brunch and I am going to the beach. Hitting the road.

Leaving you with this nice tune that an old friend sent me when I couldn't find a song to illustrate something a few years back, nice to have someone still on my side and from the bottom of my heart.. Thank You.



Can't see the future but I know it's coming fast...and so is Earl but hey he's supposed to slow down and catch that break in the ridge, then again timing is everything and had life gone differently I'd be on a road trip with someone else today and not listening to his music. Giggling, okay that was bad but he definitely deserves it lol.

Will post from the road....somewhere... trying to enjoy this area before I leave and before Earl or Fiona... wipes if off the map. And, hey I am taking the hotel gift card with me ;)and sometimes the future is not that easy to predict...not sure where we are going but somewhere to watch the waves and watch the sunset ;)

Love and Kisses... Besos Bobbi