5PM Brief Thoughts on Danielle & Earl and Miami

Super Salient Part of Discussion on Earl as Earl is the storm that needs to be discussed here..

EARL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS
INDUCED BY DANIELLE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
HELP RECURVE THAT HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS EARL APPROACHES
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN
AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE NOW FORECASTING DANIELLE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF EARL.
THIS DEVELOPING FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE EARL MORE WESTWARD THAN
NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

So basically we have a Hurricane that is "westish" bound around a strong high on Day 4 at a slow speed looking like maybe I'll go wnw, maybe I'll stay west bound...looking for a weakness and a place to call home. And, to complicate matters after fighting off shear and other problems attributed to dry air and dust remnants and the outflow from Danielle ... Earl finally finds his groove and becomes a Category FOUR Hurricane while knocking on the Hebert Box and scaring the beegeebees as my Grandma would say out of the Bahamas if not most of South Florida while forecasters talk on where he is going to make his turn and start pointing at front boundaries and paths to recurve. Oh the drama... oh Earl.. I knew you had it in you!

Mind you this is always subject to change but as of 5pm on Thursday it looks like it's going to get really interesting and we have not even talked on Fiona as she is now still an embryonic wave with 40% chances of development and the soon to be Gaston doesn't even have a circle yet as he is still over Africa.



As for Danielle she's headed for Major status unless something holds her back, she's got 110 mph winds and a joy to watch as she is safely out at sea. And, the wave that is not yet Fiona is stunning... as is that wave over Africa.

Lastly, we are of course expecting Earl to miss the islands, but the NHC takes into consideration all possibilities and gives a percentages for wind possibilities with their forecast. If I was in a town that had these numbers I'd be paying careful attention just in case...

You might want to check it out and see if your home town ends up on the list!! Gee, they even have odds for Barbuda and Guadeloupe is even in it... gee whiz a jacuzzi in St Kitts is in it too. You really have go hmnnnn when you see this as even if it's a long shot it shows that Earl could take the more southern track.

SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19)

GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/262048.shtml?

So.... keep watching... I think it's a real, real long shot that those islands will ever get affected but I do not think it's a long shot for it to flirt with the Virgin Islands and aim one mean glare at the Turks and the Caicos and if I was Publix I'd start stocking up on water because I smell panic in the tropical wind IF Earl is a category 4 of Day Four.

Mucho problemos to think on ....

Besos Bobbi