5PM Discussion on Danielle and Earl

Been watching some beautiful loops of the various storms and waves and clusters of convection all oozing and spinning around out there.

One thing that needs to be said before going on is that.... the more storms out there the harder it becomes to nail the forecast on the head because each forecast relies upon another forecast for another storm. So, it becomes a process that is very complicated and convoluted.

If the Intensity forecast is wrong on Danielle it can throw off Danielle's effect on Earl's future track. Get it? Think on it. You have so many variables.

Example?

What if a storm formed in the Gulf of Mexico suddenly or the Carib... here comes Earl sniffing along at Danielle's cookie crumbs and the next thing you know he catches a waft of an aroma of a developing tropical cookie in the Carib.... ummm "which way should I go" he thinks?

Danielle wobbles on intensity and has less of an appeal.

A really strong hurricane forms in the East Pacific...how does that play with Earl?

Then there are the usual suspect characters of upper level lows and late summer fronts.

So...when the discussion out of the NHC says, "THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CORRESPONDINGLY DECREASED." it makes you go hmmnnn. Good discussion by Beven this afternoon, fun to read. On TWC Brian Norcross can't rule out a turn to the left near the NY to Boston area tho it's a long shot but when Brian Norcross can't rule something out.... you don't blink until he has passed Bermuda and is singing "Oh Britain" ya know...well you know. And, you know her intensity seems to pulse up and down more than the stock market.

As for Earl, what can I say yet about Earl?

It's a bit too early to call Earl a Florida storm and it depends on how strong Danielle is when she goes north and how fast she goes and how fast Earl develops and if Saturn is properly aligned with Mercury but... the 5pm shows the following cords for the future track of Earl and Earl seems to be straddling the 20/60 Holy Grail mark of Florida storms at 120 hours.

So, what I would do for the next 24 hours or so while he waves goodbye to the beautiful Cape Verde Islands is see how this changes and if the 120 hour point is to the south or north, in or out of the Hebert Box.


INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.4N 32.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 14.6N 34.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 15.0N 38.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 15.5N 41.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 44.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 55.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 60.0W 80 KT

Keep watching... an going to go to the movies tonight, put aside my principles and just forget that things bother me and remind myself that someone told me recently I am so much prettier than Cameron Diaz...and not let anything bother me because I have two... TWO named storms in the Tropical Atlantic and a possible F storm down the road.