Friday 3 PM on Hurricane Weekend Watch...

And there is so much to watch. This image above shows us all the players. Without discussion it almost takes your breath away. After reading the Discussion out of the NHC it also almost takes your breath away but more from a giggling and the uneasy realization that they do not know why Danielle wiggled west during the last six hours.

"THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 305/10. DANIELLE HAS MADE A FEW
BRIEF WESTWARD WOBBLES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT OVERALL THE
MOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
THROUGH 36 HOURS MERELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHT WESTWARD POSITION
AT 12Z."

I'm sorry, but although Danielle is going more north of west currently she is not going 305 degrees. That is a forecasted, projected movement. Only time will tell if she does or if she doesn't. I want to know why and nowhere did that discussion tell me why. And, a "brief westward wobble" is 2 hours, a few frames... not close to 4 or 5 hours. Even that much of a wobble needs to be explained.

Incredible loop:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Incredible pic:



And... my question is how does Earl become a Category Four Hurricane while the outflow from Danielle is beating down on him in real time? I mean ... if Danielle takes off like a bat out of hell I can see it, but will she?

Nice loop... good song....

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=wv




See, I have serious problems with an 11 AM Discussion on Earl that basically says that the NHC has no real idea for sure...where he will be after 48 hours and throws in a CYA sort of discussion.

In the old days before models were almost foolproof we used to watch the wind probs. When they continued to go up somewhere the theory was there was more of a chance that the storm could pull in that direction. When Miami's probabilities went up we knew we had to be careful and not turn our back on a storm that was forecast to go to the Carolinas.

Earl at 11 has the following probs for strong wind over the next few days in ports of call far to the south of his expected forecast plot:

SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) 2(35)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) 1(26)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)

This is one of the most bizarre discussions out of the NHC I have ever read... it's a matter of truth being stranger than fiction. They are basically saying beyond 2 days they are not sure what it is doing.

"EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST 48 HOURS SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL
ESTABLISHED. ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO APPROACH 60 DEGREES WEST...
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT AND THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL."


I've also seen discussion from a division that is working on predicting waves that are not yet developed that intensifies Fiona not Earl, which I find pretty interesting and not consistent.

BOTTOM LINE:

Do not trust any models on Earl until we know where his real center is as his inner core is having some problems and currently trying to properly align himself and he could do that further to the west or south of his current position. His 11 am position is .2 lower to the south than his 5 AM for example. He's sort of a mess at the moment and yet he is forecast to be a major, approaching the 20/60 line and the Turks as a Major Cane...

As a weak, struggling Tropical Storm he will keep going west, stay south as I have said over and over the last few days and as Danielle pulls away and Fiona forms we will get a better clue what to do about Earl.

Stock up on supplies this weekend. If you haven't notice Publix has supplies out front or near the front. Buy some. Figure out if you live in fancy high rise on the 17th or 18th floor in Golden Beach or Williams Island where will you ride out a hurricane if Earl or Fiona happen to come your way.(Are you listening Meyer boys???) And, go out and have a wonderful weekend, enjoy Miami and all it's beauty, all your options, enjoy life... go to the ocean and think how beautiful it is and worry on Earl "later in the forecast period" when the NHC has a better idea what will happen on day 3, 4 and 5!

As for me... I'm making stuffed mini peppers for Shabbos, little yellow ones, orange ones and red ones for a high percentage chances. We will call the red ones Fiona. I'll be back after Shabbos...on Saturday night with more information and by then we should know if the Virgin Islands are out of danger or in danger. Fiona should have formed. And, an area in the Gulf of Mexico does not yet have a chance of developing but it might and it could be a game breaker IF it does.

So many questions... possibilities....

Yup... Earl could stair step his way up and over the islands and then get pushed west by a strong, developing high. Did Danielle move west because the high is kicking in? Or was it the front that was calling his name? Even a Category five will go to the path of least resistance... well... they can make their own weather in ways so maybe not.. time will tell.

Remember you always have to use your head... a forecast is a forecast, it is a prediction and even the NHC doesn't always have high confidence in their forecast but they are the best and they keep working at it, adjusting it... working on it until they get it right. But, remember you can't discount what you see with your eyes, but you can' trust the models totally either... that's not being paranoid that's being cautious.

Stay tuned... will be back in a bit with a brief update after five... my last thoughts until Saturday night. I'll have ye olde TWC on mute and I'll be glancing at the loops and praying for those folks in the islands who better not blink and keep their eye on Earl until he is safely past them. And... don't take your eyes off Fiona because she should be an entity really soon and I have complete confidence in my forecast on that one... Fiona...Florida.. not sure, will see.. time will tell.

Besos Bobbi