A Few Analog Years to ...think on...

While going through a book or two today I looked to find years when two storms were in a similar pattern and tried to find some parallels. Not as easy to find as you would think.

First off you need a busy year with storms close together that made a track thru the Atlantic close to the coast vs out to sea or across Florida like Frances and Jeanne.

Interesting comparison of the year Hazel hit North Carolina and kept on going and 1899.

Note here the purpose of this is to show patterns... years with one storm that stays inside the lines and the one that colors outside the lines. Point...something changes. This August the United States was safe from a hit, this September it will not be safe.

History teaches us lessons. Learn from history... and this is a history lesson in hurricanes that have some similarities to the set up this year with Danielle and Earl and Fiona down the line...


1954


1899


Similar corridors up from the Caribbean that allowed the storms to go north and keep going rather than out to sea.


Then we have years like 1898 that is a little bit similar. Note the earlier storm took off and curved out to sea. The high obviously built in and patterns changed and the Storm #7 didn't... See Jax DOES get hit...

Storm 4



Storm 7


Another interesting year is 1998... yup, fast forward 100 years...

Danielle (another ocean spinner)



Georges (another storm in a rush to go west)


In 1989 we have a year with two storms that traced the Bermuda High and the then one didn't... Hugo who slammed into the Carolinas and never turned back...


Dean


Gabrielle


HUGO


Oh look...the European remakes Euro on it's 10 Day Forecast..never believe a 10 day forecast but it does make you go .....ouch....



Edouardo or however you spell the stupid name



Then come Ted.. oops lol it's late sorry.. meant FRAN



And, lastly here is a pic of the whole entire year of 1926.. a year that brought us many intense landfalling storms, many that went out to sea, a lot that traced each other and the ever beautiful Marilyn Monroe ;)



So, where does that lead us? Tonight at 1 AM? Leaves me on IM with a hurricane friend lol...and writing and going to take some tequilla and go to bed :)

Well, the lead story on Raleigh news is the tropics and watching Earl.

Salient Part of the very well written 11 PM Discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. EARL IS APPROACHING THE END OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATING IT FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF EARL DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR...
WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENS. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STEER EARL GENERALLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...

Compare the wind probabilities for PR and the VI Islands at 5 and 11:

5PM
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 26(38) 2(40) X(40)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) X(16)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)

SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 20(50) 1(51) X(51)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 1(25) X(25)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13)

11PM

SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 19(40) 1(41) X(41)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) 1(17)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 31(42) 13(55) X(55) X(55)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 13(29) X(29) X(29)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15)

Find your city of choice:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/290303.shtml?

(note no Florida cities are in this at 11, watch carefully if anything changes at 5 am)

Watches and warnings are up for ports of call everywhere in the path of Earl.

Personally, I find it hard to believe he doesn't get to 75 W before doing ...something.

Whatcha gonna do now Earl???

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi