Apologies From Avila at 5PM... Earl Discussion

Interesting, strange discussion out of the NHC this afternoon at 5.. Avila admits he might have been slow. "IT APPEARS THAT I WAS EITHER SLOW THIS MORNING OR EARL HAS
ACCELERATED A LITTLE BIT."

Personally, I looked at the loops and the advisory and I was pretty sure he was moving west, fast around 20mph forward speed. Maybe he is in a rush to become a Major Cane, am sure he has read his publicity releases!!

Gets a little sketchier here... " I FEEL A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN WITH THE
NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN THIS FORECAST SINCE ALL TRACK GUIDANCE
UNANIMOUSLY BEGIN TO MOVE EARL ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE
BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
WITH THE WEEKEND COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL."

You know rarely do you read so much "I" put into a forecast discussion at the NHC unless Avila is writing them. I just find it interesting as it is so different from discussion by Stacey Stewart (one of the best) or Jack Beven or Brennan.. Suppose that is just his literary style and hey he did apologize, guess he didn't get his Cuban coffee this morning. I know how funky I feel when I miss my cafecito :( really, life is not the same.

Well... the islands of French Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy have had enough it seems of Avila's indecision and they hoisted a watch for the islands, just in case it turns a little bit to the left (South) and noticed that TWC is now giving out their OWN forecasts "exclusive" and I suppose that means they can differ from the NHC. Sometimes you just got to choose who you going to trust?

Watches up... we will know have advisories on Earl every three hours.

"THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY. THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 72 HOURS."

Wind probabilities from the NHC are getting higher and higher. A watch is just a watch... reminds people to keep watching.

SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 8(38) X(38)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)

So... last thoughts on my part?

I think Earl needs to be watched. And, note if Fiona takes her time forming and Danielle departs than Earl could intensify faster but still what is not said in the discussion is that the location of the exact center of Earl has been a question discussed all day by professional mets trying to figure out if his center is decoupling or there are just simply two multiple centers or if this is from dust or if this is because he will not slow down as mentioned in apologies by Avila.

The Mariners 123 Rule put out by the NHC shows Earl coming in on the south side of the infamous 20/60 line. IF so.... he has to be watched carefully as storms that do so tend to be problems on coastlines along Florida and north...

Not saying he is going to make landfall... but I think it's possible he could get past 70w and possibly 75w and if so we are going to pray a lot that he makes that turn. Easy money is on him making the turn... but this isn't some $2 bet to win, place or show it's life and death in the tropics.

Keep watching

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 5(28) X(28)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) 4(44) X(44)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) 1(18)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8

Danielle: Doing what she is supposed to do and following the plan more or less. Beautiful storm to watch.

Earl: Big question mark... Will he really do what the models say and intensify wildly and if he does where and when??

Fiona: Doesn't figure into it just yet.

Personal Editorial:
Am SICK to death of hearing about Katrina and New Orleans, it was a horrible, horrible tragedy that the government neglected to stay on top of the problems with the levee, the maintenance and knowing it was considered for years by the government to be the number 1 tragedy that could affect us from a Hurricane and Katrina did not hit New Orleans. It's neglect on the part of the State of Louisiana that they did not have a way to evacuate people out of a city in their state rather than leaving it to New Orleans to handle. I think they should secede like Key West did and make themselves their own republic. And, VERY TIRED of WAVELAND not getting enough coverage because that is where Katrina hit and that city has not received the monies or attention that Nola has and that part of the country is still trying to rebuild. I love New Orleans, it's in my top five cities but am sick of hearing Katrina, Nola, Katrina and Nola and not enough about Waveland.

And... tired of hearing about the Titanic Expedition and I LOVE Titanic trivia, just enough already.

Have a good shabbos... a good weekend... keep watching Earl...

Besos Bobbi
Ps Go Fins!