Trying to Catch Up With Earl

Came out of shabbos and am trying to catch up with Earl which is not easy as he spent the whole day being Speedy Gonzalez and the NHC tried to find 50 different ways to say he is moving really, really fast. The problem with the speed is that he is far to the SW of where he was projected to be by the models and therefore Danielle could have less of a long term effect on him though she will tug him a bit.

Loop of the same image from above shows how this goes when put in motion :)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-ft.html

Recon was in today so hopefully we now know exactly where his center is and which way he is going and at 11 we can have a forecast that we can feel confident about.

He is going to come in under the 20/60 golden box that defines storms that affect Florida under different conditions, there are more disclaimers to this rule than would be believed but we watch that 20/60 line carefully. Here is an incredibly well put together explanation about the Hebert Box and some info on the amazing meteorologist who we owe much gratitude to as hurricanes is meteorology and meteorology is all math and odds, percentages, probabilities and patterns.



http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

And, trying to catch up with models and their ever conflicting outputs.

Check this one out for instance...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010082818-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Which was run on the wave behind Earl which is different from the SAME model on Earl..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010082818-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

One of those mysteries of life, sort of like having the two different answers to the same question by the same professor.

A simple illustration of how hard it is to write a forecast from the NHC that does not sound like it's been cut and paste is below.

These are the various comments I am reading thru...

..EARL CONTINUES WESTWARD...A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EARL CONTINUES QUICKLY WESTWARD...
...EARL CONTINUES HEADING WESTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP...
...EARL A LITTLE WEAKER...ACCELERATING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY..

Then we have the "going to near the a break in the ridge" discussion repeated over and over in every discussion...

THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO NEAR A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

and again in the next discussion...

IN A DAY OR SO...EARL WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. (uh oh..notice they are hedging on the nw...)

and then again....

...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGIN TO
TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

Mind you... he will at some point hit the edge of the ridge... point is where and how much and how fast will he turn and in what direction. I mean Georges never listened to his discussions but that was a different year. Similar tho...

I am not making this up you can check the NHC's Advisory Archives:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/EARL.shtml?

Okay, so you are wondering what I am thinking... I am thinking that we will know in about 12 to 24 hours if this is a storm that Florida or the Carolinas will have to worry on and I am leaning towards the Carolinas but you cannot take Florida out of the picture. Looked through some old books today given to be my a friend at the NHC, great maps... of every year going back so far it's amazing and I both realized I didn't update it the way I was supposed to at the end of each year and I found old great hurricane maps I printed out from the Keynoter in Key West several years back. Also, read up on infamous Carolina storms like the 1899 San Ciriaco Hurricane and the 1928 Palm Beach Hurricane as well as a few others. What is so interesting is how similar the tracks are and how the smallest variation in direction and speed made all the difference.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1893_Sea_Islands_hurricane
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1926_Nassau_Hurricane_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1926_Miami_hurricane
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurricane
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1944_Great_Atlantic_Hurricane
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1949_Florida_hurricane
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cleo_1964_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Georges
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Floyd_1999_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fran_1996_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hugo

Note... ALL these storms were at some point where Earl is... and could be fit into Earl's current cone... it all comes down to where the high builds in after Danielle, how much Danielle tugs Earl and where there is a front and etc, etc...

Cape Verde storms... up and over the islands or through the islands and a sharp veer off to the right (north) and up towards the coast or out to sea.

The above listed storms are the ones that did not get away....

Will Earl get away or will he get trapped under a high and move ever so much closer to Florida, before possibly doing the Carolinas.

I'm not even going to discuss Fiona for now and as for Danielle... she is a very beautiful, powerful, intense storm that will add to the list of Danielle's who spun out in the ocean and out to sea without hitting land. Something interesting to note is the D storm went out to sea.. the F storm did not, the high built in at some point.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Danielle_1998_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Georges_1998_track.png

Other than going to the west of Bermuda it's a very similar track and storm.

So, waiting for the 11 pm discussion and hoping now that the planes have been inside and they have studied some of the data that we will have a better handle on Earl. Also, thinking I will pretty much be in the cone as the Navy site has me in the cone.

Might update in a little while after thinking a bit, but for now am thinking if he takes the islands or doesn't may be the defining signature of Earl.

Stay tuned... he is moving westward fast and will soon reach the edge of the...

Besos Bobbi ;)