Alex... First Storm in the Season From Hell

Welcome to 2010, the year with conditions that are near perfect for tropical development. Warm water, upper level highs in all the right places and El Nino has run off for a long sabbatical. SAL is down, high is in place and Alex is the first of many storms to drive forecasters and trackers crazy.



So many loops to loop. Here is a long 24 hour loop:

http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24

If there is a theme song for the Summer of 2010 this would definitely have to be it! From the Great Eddie and the Cruisers ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avPGk-XXEfE

A recent discussion from the NHC shows how much uncertainty there is in the track of Alex.

WHILE THE SHORT-TERM MOTION OF ALEX APPEARS ALMOST DUE WEST...A
LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS....A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF ALEX. THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE WEAKER WITH THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. AS A RESULT...THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENTLY TAKING ALEX MORE POLEWARD. THE REMAINING MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX WILL RESULT IN A MORE
WESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
AND THE HWRF ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS GROUP OF MODELS...BUT DO
NOT SHOW A SHARP NORTHWARD TURN. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND BEYOND THAT
TIME IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CLOSE TO
THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

Why?

1. Alex is still over land. Hard to predict how fast it is moving and hard to tell how it will change when it hits the water. We assume it will spin up fast again but that's assuming and we all know that all saying.

2. There is a strong ULL to it's ENE, an eroding ridge to it's north and the steering currents are not set in stone.

3. Models disagree. Really? Wow... like who knew lol. Seriously, they often disagree as we know and until one wins out and works in tandem with a moving storm over water we watch and we wait.

4. Climo sort of goes out the window this year or so it would seem so hard to rely on what is favorable and what is not for a June storm.

Good link to watch...

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/wv2_tropic2_anim.gif

Beautiful to watch it spin.

Also, am worrying on a new upper level low that might be forming to it's north. Might being the salient word in that sentence.

I still want to say easy money takes it on the Road to Brownsville as I said the other day but would not count anything out until we see the core back over water.

Besos Bobbi
ps.. back much later when we have some real info... lost in loops talking to friends online.