5 PM Ike Discussion Sunday Night.. Questions

I have a lot of questions on their discussion. Not saying I disagree. Saying I don't like inconsistencies that leave me with too many questions.

I think the storm has wobbled to the wnw over the last few hours. That may correct itself or be an illusion due to an eye wall replacement cycle. Only time will tell and not just singing a Jimmy Buffett tune but telling it like it is.. time will tell. Ike will tell us, not with model output or NHC advisories but with his eye as he moves which ever way he wants to move.

I disagree.. I think the eyewall replacement cycle could finish and it's stronger now than they said and they make it clear they are making educated guesses as the dropsonde may not have found the strongest wind and they are guessing he will make landfall before finishing the cycle. It's an educated guess and they are as educated as it gets but sometimes a guess is a guess unless you know for sure after the fact.

I am not saying this cause Mother spooked me with her talk of storms here always making a move to go north or nw... just going by what I see.

Also... if they found a verified barometric pressure that is lower why not wait 3 hours before dropping the wind speed in the same way they wait 3 hours before changing movement and being sure it's a wobble or a change in direction.

Shouldn't the rules be for all things not just willy nilly?

Barometric pressure shows it to be intensifying not weakening, it hasn't hit Cuba yet.

Just logically saying 1 + 1 + 1 should equal 3 not 2.5!

So..these are my thoughts. Then I am going off, going to take a long bath in some Pure Seduction or Strawberries and Champaign Bubble Bath from Victoria Secrets. Lighting a candle, maybe have some wine. Resting my eyes... no more loops for at least 30 minutes.

Personally... I usually think storms at this spot usually trend towards the wnw and will often skirt the coast line of Cuba before feeling a weakness somewhere.

AGAIN.. this morning a large area of convection came off of the Bay of Campeche and moved into the Eastern Gulf and towards the Straits of Florida. If you look at the WV loop today it is drastically different from this morning. So.. it is possible the high could be eroding a bit faster than expected. Maybe.

See:



NHC has been good. Their models have been good, could they be missing something?
Again I remind you the historical tracks for storms like this at this point in time pull north.

Will see... Ike will tell us his story himself.

Down the line is down the line.

Lastly... remember that the cone allows for Ike to go WNW and to be inside the cone and therefore be within the forecasted path of the storm. Top edge of the cone is wnw. So... IF.. and BIG IF he does make a move faster to the WNW would be within the cone. Maybe he will wobble back to true west before 8 pm.

My notes are in bold and italic...

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATES THAT IKE HAS
WEAKENED A LITTLE. (oh goodie) THE PLANE FOUND A PEAK SFMR OF 91 KT AND 107 KT
AT FLIGHT LEVEL. AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 100 KT BUT THE DROP MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED THE HIGHEST WINDS. (oh darn, hate when that happens)
WHILE THESE OBSERVATIONS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY LOWER
INTENSITY...(i like normal) THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 945 MB..(oh shoot thats really strong) .AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 105 KT. (huh???) A RECENT SERIES OF MICROWAVE
PASSES AND REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRM THAT AN
OUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED..(oh wow, it's strengthening) .BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL COMPLETE PRIOR TO IKE REACHING CUBA. (maybe not) (are they sure it won't finish, mean the plane has left the storm right?)
ACCORDINGLY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. (but the barometer got really deep...)ONCE INLAND OVER CUBA...(it's not over cuba yet...)WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT
THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW LONG THE CENTER
STAYS OVER LAND. (uh huh) THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR
APPROXIMATELY 24-36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN. (only if it stays inland and doesn't ride the beach like a wind surfer)
HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH COULD
RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER. (hot water, very hot water) IKE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS
WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. (ewww not good news)
IKE'S POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
DEPEND ON ITS STRUCTURE ONCE IT EMERGES FROM CUBA. (what if it doesn't go over cuba?)

IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD (looks to be wobbling north of west, not westward.. was going west then it wobbled..hoping it wobbles back now) DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/12. (12? so why isn't forward speed 12.. i never get this part) A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH WEAKENS. (check the floater ... could happen sooner) IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IN IKE'S FORWARD SPEED. MOST (most but not all) OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING IKE TO THE
NORTH WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THIS PATTERN
WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT LEFT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS
4 AND 5. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK. (yeah heard that before)..AND IT IS MUCH TOO
EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM. (can we deal with Cuba before worrying on where he goes later... )

You can watch the storm for me.. let me know or let someone know or just keep it to yourself like your own little secret. IF... playing the IF game again the wobble continues the NHC will write how it it making a short term adjustment and it is expected to resume it's movement west later ...

rolling eyes...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2008_09L/webManager/basicJavaDisplay.html

Looks to me just north of west..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/sloop-avn.html

Fins lost and I will save you my thoughts on why we should have taken Brett Favre first and why we should have taken Quinn not Ginn but... again time will tell but today we lost. Came close to winning but lost.

Who knew.. my mother watches the Heat and likes Dwayne Wade.. who knew? Hear that Jay in Greece? Mother watches the Heat play.. I don't think we can deal with Ike not doing Cuba and moving towards Florida ... the I told you so would be more brutal than a storm surge.

www.stormpulse.com give it a while

later.. the bath awaits... i know a nice big chair that swivels at the NWS in Key West with some big monitors that I would love to be in and a pool at Tom's house but since I'm here... my bathtub should do as I cannot nudge it where I want to so...

be back later..