Close to TD Status, Is she or isn't she you decide...

This is an image from the NRL site at 7:30 A.M. Thursday morning.

Is it or isn't it a Tropical Depression?To my eyes it is. The dropsonde has to hit the center exactly to measure the winds and get the right reading. If they are off just a bit and can't find a west wind they will not upgrade. It's tediously, scientific but hey that's how they play the game. Unless they upgrade without dropsonde/recon confirmation.

One view of a GPS dropsonde which is a tube a little bigger than a toweling paper tube that kids make art projects with and not much heavier. It floats down, it registers data, sends it back to the plane, trial and error and it's one of the best systems we have for exact, actual data. Sats can sometimes lie or give the illusion of more.

What worries me is that this is awfully close to land and though the models don't rapidly intensify it in the next 12 hours it is like playing chicken with the islands. I don't see the harm in upgrading this to a Tropical Depression and putting out a Tropical Storm Watch for the islands closest to it's path. A Watch is not a definitive you WILL feel tropical storm warnings but it gives them a good heads up if in 6 hours this pulls together over their heads...which it might.

You might use timing as a key factor to verify which model is closer to the money.

As for my money... this has what looks like all the signs of a Tropical Depression at least and I have seen uglier looking Tropical Storms.

Is this a matter of location or over reliance on the models?

We believe the models so we keep going into the storm ala Dolly. Even when the system looked like the shear was going to kick the hell out of it we went ahead and sent down the planes (ala Dolly) but we are ignoring what we see with our eyes which is rudimentary banding, energy in and energy out in all parts of a circular storm with strong winds.

Come on... upgrade it to TD and let's get some watches up.

Just my 5 cents but I am not working at the NHC I am a college librarian and a freelance writer who just happens to know a TD when she sees one but I don't have to cover my you know what with paperwork to explain how I upgraded without a paper trail. I do need to cover my pretty little you know what with clothes and get to work so....

Stay tuned, but everything I said last night goes for today.

Use this site for models, set it to 92 and hit forward and watch which model best hits the spot on timing and intensification and then maybe you might want to take it to the prom cause one of these models is more on the money than the other.

This is a real case of playing chicken and waiting to see if it will blink and if it does where exactly the mid level or lower level or whatever level is before issuing watches or putting up a cone.

Scene from one of my all time favorite movies where they are playing chicken with tractors not dropsondes.



See you all later.. Bobbi