Florida Hurricane?? Which Way Will Fay Go?

First off I am going to stick to the subject at hand which is a developing wave in the Atlantic that doesn't look all that exciting tonight but that may look very exciting on Saturday Night or Sunday.

This is a very tricky forecast for the NHC.

Usually Cape Verde Waves form further out and there is a few weeks running room for forecasts. You get a feel for the storm, the way it's stacked, the atmosphere around it. Whereas Gulf Coast storms can intensify quickly, close in and not even give Emergency Management Teams time to properly prepare.

With this wave that is again back on track for development after a shear filled 24 hours models are spitting out tracks that spray the Florida coastline and down through the straits. Most noticeably though is the newest GFDL that improves upon it's last just offshore frame with one more bizarre neck braking twist. Possibly it has been watching one too many gymnasts at the Olympics??

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200892_model.html

So... if you look at a close up visible you will see it is once again round and there are feather like little lines going out in all directions. Convection is flaring up once again. A high is directly to it's north so it's going to go mostly w or wnw. The upper level low to it's NE is moving away to the East and there is one more obstacle for it to pass before it's somewhere near the north coast of Hispanola.

It should hug the old Bahama Passage and parallel the coastline of Cuba eventually feeling the tug of that need to go north and it will move exasperatingly close to Florida. Did I say last weekend that the stores this weekend might be filled with people doing more than buying school supplies?

The long term models have been very good with system which gives me the ability to keep believing them and they take it perilously close to the Florida peninsular.

Of course the GFDL which has been ramping up intensity all day now has it coming straight at Boca Raton/Palm Beach.



I am sure that will change. Okay, I am sure a lot will change but think it's still possible for Florida to be under the gun at the start of the next week.

Where is the missing piece of this puzzle?



Look at the US/Canadian border and you will see a "cold front" that is predicted to race down the often traveled path of Minnesota - Nebraska - Iowa - Illinois down towards the SE and the State of Florida. The track and intensity of that system will affect the developing Cyclone which will feel it's pull and pull it towards Florida as opposed to curving along the coastline.

Again...everything is timing.

So... while it may not look like a whole lot to write about tonight it will look much stronger, much better and the Hype Monsters will start spinning tragedy and comedy in Florida with a replay of 2004/5 before the weekend is through. You'll note there is a reason the Democratic and Republican Convention are not having their conventions in South Florida this year, they don't like us.

Neither does the GFDL...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200892_model.html?MR=1

So...stay tuned for the birth of TD 6 and the Tropical Storm soon to be named Fay. And, know that she will end up a hurricane before all is said and done.

As for the Olympics.. I'm sorry I cannot take volleyball seriously and where do they get those bathing suits? They should be shopping at Surf Style on South Beach if you ask me!

Talk about illusions, under the smog filled skies in China they made a Hollywood back lot to look like a beach for the volley ball games. And, they got some Marnie Nixon like child to sing for the pretty little girl they showed in the Opening Ceremonies. Go Team American and everyone watching..enjoy the show.

As for anyone in the South Florida area.. and the Gulf States (including the West Coast of Florida) you might want to buy some Storm Supplies while at Staples while buying college ruled paper and sharpeners. I know they have them. We take hurricanes seriously down here.



Just remember this is based upon forecasts which have been very accurate so far.
This will develop quickly once it does.
It's been beyond hot the last few days and the barometer here has been stuck at 29.93 to 29.95. Pressures have been low despite being told we are under high pressure. Yeah, there is a high and it's directly above the developing wave.

So... make some lists, what if lists. Pretend it's Fantasy Hurricane League here and figure out what you need the MOST and where to spend your money. In these times that are tough economically you cannot go run out and break the bank buying everything you think you might need and not have money to pay the electric bill when the storm misses you by 200 miles. Buy snacks you can use for school supplies. Start saving your Publix Soda bottles and keep them washed clean and ready to fill. Make a plan for what ifs. Buy baby food, pet food and get your medicines refilled NOW before the rush because if this one doesn't hit you.. the next ones behind it might.

Great site: http://www.stormcarib.com/goes.htm