Invest 92 Soon to be a Tropical Depression.. Coming Together

Been watching this wave all day, off and on, between chores and rest and trying not to peek too much.

You know the old philosophy of a watched pot doesn't start spinning if you watch it too much?

This wave is congealing, coming together and doing so carefully, consistently all night.

On one hand there aren't very bright colors on the IR and it looks less "busy" yet you can see the circulation spinning and I am pretty sure that's a low level center not some upper or middle circulation which was theorized in message boards all night.

But it's like anything, all about location and the red dot is in the center of the wave just where it needs to be.

Also..here you can see how round the pocket is and that feathered look shows how outflow wants to develop. Could be a sign it made it through the worst of the shear though thought it would be near shear for a bit.. something to watch if this trend continues.



Here is a loop:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

Shows not only a center but a sense of outflow that has been visible this evening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html



I won't discuss model imagery except to say that some models take it across Florida, some across Cuba, some the Straits and some curve it off shore like Floyd going N somewhere.

Everyone sees something or someone. Some see Andrew for Invest 92 and others see Floyd. Truth is it is just a tropical wave right now or more like a "tropical disturbance" which is a vague term that means.. almost a depression but not classified as such.

Got to be careful with models. One model takes a storm up the Gulf stream and slams it into the Mid-Atlantic taking the Garden out of the Garden State and then keeps it going all the way to Ontario, Canada. We might want to let that model reset and start over or this will be a season never to forget. Garbage in, garbage out..remember that with models.

For now.. it's a wave and nothing more but several models intensify this in the Bahamas caught underneath a high pressure ridge being pushed west across somewhere and into the Gulf all the way to Louisiana. Unless it finds a weakness.

Hey..it's August what dance would you expect here hip hop or the jitterbug. It is what it is as we say these days or more so it isn't what it will be.

Has to get past a wall of shear and a sea of dry air. But... with convection flaring around the center and that beautiful, tight spin it is easier to believe the models that we have a keeper.

Official word from NHC... almost... They issued a "STD" statement which basically means not yet but get ready... it's gonna come together...


SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
455 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...AS
WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER... THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE WAVE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

The statement with the look of the wave tonight.. I think it's safe to say TD 6 will Come Together Real Soon if not Right Now...