92 Hanging On Fighting Strong Shear, Weak Today ..Strong In 2 Days?

Loop this loop:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

Imagine yourself trying to spin in circles and keep on your feet...

This is the shear that I thought she was supposed to be dealing with last night when she began to pull together. So, think on this...once the shear lets up we have an idea how she will look and that is "round" and she can do it but takes time.

Takes a lot of time to pull a storm together in this part of the Atlantic Ocean as they always have to deal with upper level lows and shear out of the Carib. The reason so few storms form in the graveyard of the Eastern Carib is because they die a slow death fighting shear as they limp in and die there. Usually the shear is less at the NE part and stronger at the Southern Entrance but the Shear Monster is trying it's hardest to protect the islands. Should be called St. Shear not the Shear Monster as we like to call it that.

When they come off spinning we don't have this problem. We have other problems. Each storm has it's own unique but similar set up that is often similar to another storm in hurricane history. Find the storm, find the set up and you learn a lot. The models take these things into consideration. They are complexly put together not just a bunch of 8 Balls being shaken and averaging the answers. I know..don't shake them, I remember.

So... what bothers me about the models is so far this system has followed the models to the T as they say. Perfectly. They showed a system that was having problems closing off and forming, off and on pulsing up and following this path exactly vs staying west and slipping into the Carib. So far this year we saw this with Dolly that took her own sweet time before doing Texas.

A note for those who keep pointing at 92 and screaming ANDREW, ANDREW remember that Andrew was a named Storm and a weak Tropical Storm not a disorganized wave at this point and there have been many other similar storms that fought shear like this and won. Betsy buffeted shear and negative conditions.. Okay, probably not the best two examples but those are the first that come to mind.

If the models have verified so far then there is no reason to not believe they will continue to verify and if they do that takes this area into the Bahamas and aimed either at Florida or an Escape Route off shore on Sunday give or take.

So.... as we watch this system hang on against strong shear and being pounded and bounced around by more than one upper level low worry not on what it is today but what it will become down the road.

Unless it falls apart. They do that too but for some reason we don't remember the ones that got away only the ones that made it our way.

This is one example model.. look at the last image.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081300-invest92l&field=
Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

If she hangs on ....like she has... she's gonna be a force to reckon with down the line and that line is our coastline in a country known as Hurricane Country