Hurricane Warnings For Miami-Dade and Logic Behind it..

Understand this.. please

This is the way it works

Probs for center of storm to pass within 65 n miles
Key West Fl 6% 22% < 1% < 1% 28%
Marathon Fl 18% 14% < 1% 1% 33%
Marco Island Fl 2% 23% 1% < 1% 26%
Miami Fl 21% 11% < 1% < 1% 32%

Makes you wonder how Miami has higher probs than Key West which is closer to the track?
...........Would indicate the storm might go through upper keys between Marathon and Miami.. right?

Not Key West.

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Track.. still has it to the South of the Keys.. very close to Key West
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Discussion admits that their track is to the south of model consensus
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means.. models agree with probs not track
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Question???
Begs an answer doesn't it?


Why did they not shift the track more to the north as the models and the probs seem to imply it should be?

In the discussion.. It's always IN the Discussion.. Learn to READ Discussion not advisories..

Answer:
Planes.. Recon are going in to the storm later today.. they will take another look and make a decision.

To be on the safe side (cya) they did issue a Hurricane Warning for the Miami area.. so they will say either way Miami-Dade County was in the CONE.. which is true.

Rule of Thumb with NHC.. they want their own data (recon) to verify what sats and models imply because the buck stops there and they have to stand behind what they say officially. They have to explain how they came up with that vs Jim and I who can say we have a gut feeling that its closer to the Upper Keys.

Lastly..they have a tendency to move the cone slowly so...

Expect if they move that track the "middle line" you are NOT supposed to pay attention to ..will be dragged thru the Lower-Mid Keys and not Upper Keys/South Dade.

Remember this and pay attention to the fact that we down here are ALL under a Hurricane Warning.. which means we WILL EXPECT to have hurricane force winds (doesn't say how high notice) and watch the probs, the pressures and the storm itself.. while waiting to see what Recon finds.

I'm hoping this explains a very complicated way that they do business which at times can be misleading to some but really isn't.

They do more than throw darts at the map on the wall down there.. which is by the way .. a real BIG map.. have seen it :)
Bobbi who agrees with Jim at Hurrcity.. probably upper keys the way it looks now..
Been hoping personally for the 18 mile stretch.. but its a big storm and going to be a mess..

More later