Birth Announcement.. New System TD 17

Shabbos, by the way.. for the record.. was beautiful. Rested a lot. Read a lot. Slept a lot. Thought a lot and after pondering life.. prayed a lot.. even on occaision tried to daydream

Came on after shabbos and played catch up with the weather. Though a good friend gave me a heads up over Shabbos to know they had made the new depression official. Good friends being good friends..

So... to start this off correctly.

Birth of a Storm.. goes like this.

First there is an announcement.. a Special Tropical Statement..
pre-release publicity for those of us in the biz.. tropical biz that iz

Next.. we wait for the official naming process to begin.

We know it will begin.. we have seen the models.. we have seen the storm.

Will be Philippe sooner rather than later as models are scaring the shit out of forecasters right now.

Another thing to watch is... an area that seems to not have developed yet. A group of showers closer in called an "invest" meaning the Navy site is investigating it.. and we watch the Navy as they seem to show what will happen before NHC does.

So... everyone is jumping all over this investigated area around PR.. but that hasn't formed. IF that becomes a storm it would ride around the bottom of the high.

17 would be pulled nw... nnw...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200517_model.html

Which I'm not sure of..

A good friend.. someone named SNONUT for online purposes here... has taught me over time never to believe a model until the storm has formed and they have hard data.. HARD.. on where the true center is. Because..until you have the right cords.. it could be bad data in.. garbage out. But... we have of course tracked many a wave and looked at many a models.. keeping that in mind..

Sort of don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes...

But.. pays to pay attention to noises while you are out guarding the fort under a full moon.. where there is smoke there is fire and the models have been dead on the last few months..

Miami Radar.. watch it on TWC.. strong easterly flow..

So... watch 17 down below that should be Philippe.. and see if 18 forms.. and see if that scary model verifies..

Note.. this would be a strong hurricane through the Straits and wondering how close that is to Key West and on his way into the Gulf. Sorry, but consider myself a one day citizen of Key West .. in some way or the other and it is the city of my heart.. in my heart.

models scaring the shit out of forecasters ..
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL962005

does that boy.. or girl.. never sure who anyone is online.. know how to make maps or what?

will be back later with a round up of thoughts
on things seen and unseen

but first.. special thanks to special friends for making my world go around
and keeping me up when i fall down and feel like i can't get up
but can.. with their help.
Thank YOu! (smile.. ykw)



000WONT41 KNHC 171216DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL820 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005...SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING EAST OF THEWINDWARD ISLANDS...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE VIGOROUS TROPICALWAVE ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZEDAND THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. THE FIRST ADVISORY ONTHE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OFTHE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 AM AST...1500Z.AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THISSYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER BEVEN$$

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