Miami Waits for Tropical Storm Rita.. Under a Hurricane Watch

To start with..let's take a look at a few things from the 11pm discussion and advisory package out of the National Hurricane Center.

When you want to buy into a forecast package you want the whole thing to be cohesive. All parts should support eachother. They should work in tandem. If something doens't match... you have to wonder.

First off.. the probs which they always say not to go by.. but they post and people go by..
Shows KW at a 24% chance of storm conditions.. Marathon at a higher chance... that would seem strange for a storecasted to go through the Straits of Florida. Marco Island being in it that high a number shows the possibility that the storm is not going south of mainland Florida but at a higher level... Miami being a 27 which is higher than anything else shows Miami to have the highest chance.. probs..

No matter how much they say not go by this.. people do and it's a very good indicator of trends and confidence in a forecast.

Next.. you have the model track..shows all the models low down near Cuba.
At the same time they posted hurricane watches further north.

Key West Fl < 1% 17% 6% 1% 24%Marathon Fl < 1% 23% 3% < 1% 26% Marco Island Fl < 1% 12% 10% 1% 23% Miami Fl 1% 24% 2% < 1% 27% Then there is the quote from the discussion....

She isn't moving..she is sort of oozing it seems...when a storm is not moving but oozing... it can ooze itself anywhere.. means it is not real well defined and they have a bad handle on it still...
important quote.. note the storm seems not to be moving in a fluid way but propogating "The initial motion estimate is 300/09. Rita has actually been movingor propagating northwestward the past 6 to 9 hours. This motion maybe due to the center reforming closer to the deep convection...oractual movement toward a weaker break in the mid-level ridgelocated along 75w longitude."

Then there is the discussion on how the high to the west builds east and pushes her west... I'm sorry but if they are at about equal lat and the top of Rita is BIG... it will be hard for that to happen especially if the high over Florida is not as high as they thought.

The whole package is wierd.

Rita is a big wierd if I may so.

Part of me wants to say she is not stacked right and as I have been taught that means that she will not... not..get anywhere until she gets it right. She might ooze.. she might move, she might reform or relocate but she's not going to win awards in the Beauty Department. And, strong storms.. big ones.. are beautiful.. classic.

She's better tonight than she was.. she is intensifying.. she is also playing cat and mouse with her center.. like some shell game for the NHC to have to want to peak under to see where the real center is...

I think for now we have to deal with Rita where she is and no matter how much we worry.. we can't look at the End Game but have to look at the Beginning because the beginning is where she is and she may never get to any specific end game.

First things first..

Taking this in parts..

Keys/South Florida.. Should be impacted by a hurricane and or strong tropical storm force winds on Tuesday depending on foward speed.

Note.. you can usually tell what a storm might do by watching the Keys. They are top of the line when it comes to early warning and evacuating people from the Keys. If they start to do that.. you know the storm is going west.. not recurving. IF they start shuttering.. take it seriously.
Ignore the cute sound bites of the lost and looney wandering around Duval drunk and lost and having a good time being put on air.. Key West is more than Duval..it is a beautiful city with great people.. very smart, very savy and very cautious. If a major Cane is coming they take it seroiusly. Trust me.. no one but a Conch knows what it is to live on the Rock. One way on.. one way off.. unless you have a boat or plane.

I think at this point it is just as believable that the upper Keys or Florida City area could take the brunt of the storm heading wnw as Key West and I think Cuba is way out there for now.

Miami? Miami is a mess from Katrina. The electric system is barely back in place and I am sure more fragile than it looks. There are trash piles everywhere.. some about 6 feet high or higher in front of houses, businesses and piled up high on areas the City designated for them to be dropped off to be picked up and hauled away. In those trash piles of tree debris is a lot of furniture, broken awnings, carpeting that was soaked and ruined.. we are a real mess even if it didn't show on the MTV awards and a strong tropical storm blowing that stuff around and the trees that have yet to be chopped down will create a big mess at best case scenario.

I can't find someone to cut my grass because all my gardners are still down south cutting up trees into big chunks for big bucks.

The Gulf?? She gets into the Gulf she will intensify rapidly.. not a Cat 4 maybe but a Cat 3 maybe.. who knows. Intensity forecasting is hard to tell when you have a developing storm. And, we do... so not going to go into intensity forecasting.

As for Nola.. Texas.. Well.. I don't buy it. Not just yet.

I think it's lifting too much to the north and the system as a whole is about equal with parts of the strong high in the western gulf, the high over florida is not as high as the western gulf which makes it seem like low pressure.. or lower pressure.

Will see what tomorrow brings.

My kids are upset there is school tomorrow. So far anyway.

I'm glad I have work tomorrow. So far anyway.

Have already made a list of things I might need but didn't buy today.

I have been putting small water bottles in the freezer to freeze them.. and filled up some old soda bottles (washing water) and bought more Spring Water. By the way.. Fiji Water has new bottles.. new packaging... well new pictures .. only bought one to drink while shopping but.. wow.
Our turbines are still down and capped from Katrina.
Will see..

Will see tomorrow..

No one is going to under estimate this storm because of Katrina IN Miami.. not because of Katrina in NOLA. Katrina in Miami made everyone quite aware how strong a Cat 1 Hurricane can be.. and her storm surge in Biloxi/Gulfport will wake everyone up down here.

Meanwhile.. Monroe County has already flown out a group of seriously ill patients from the hospital down there.. smart place, great place.. wonderful place.

Will see tomorrow what the new model runs show.. and will see what Rita did over night and we will watch the Water Vapor Loop. And, we will freeze water..

Yes... been a long day.. fins lost.. full moon..and a messy, confusing storm that I am sure the guys at the NHC have had enough of but will have to keep on dealing with her.

Oh..........note on Philippe.. depending on what happens to Rita and the high.. he could turn more west than previously planned.. will see.

Wave off of Africa too..

Few of the kids were in Key West today.. came back with the good old Solares Hill lol and Keynoter for me to read.. and I will... but doesn't look like I will be getting down there on Tuesday this week as I had planned.

Always so interesting to look up and TWC and see the scroll warning you that you are under a Hurricane Watch... winds of this magnitude are likely to cause sporadic power outages... fallen trees... minor property damage..

ah yes... Sweet Dreams from The Weather Channel

nite.. Bobbi
anyone in Key West reading this.. please go to the Grotto and light a candle for Bobbithanks!