Hurricane Harbor: Alvin Forms! 1st Tropical Storm of the 2025 Hurricane Season... in the Eastern Pacific. A Look at Short Term in the Tropics. MJO vs SAL & Wind Shear.

There was a battle going on here....

TD ONE-E

Wanted to be Alvin!

And, Alvin it is!

Worked hard for the name this morning!

Lots of color, high towers trying to hold on..

.... getting some power

Dvorak looks down into the layers.

With XRAY vision like Superman!

Easily confirms it is a Tropical Storm!

Lotta consolidation going on this morning!

People ask me why I talk on the Dvorak.

It's a tool that measures intensity.

Note discussion from NHC today.

Alvin is also easy to discern on Earthnull...

Cone below.

Forecast to fall apart due to cooler water.

Again even when that happens....

...the moisture goes somewhere.

So where does it go?

The Mimic knows!

Gets caught up in the flow....

...as a "remnant low"

A look at the Mimic shows us how much moisture there is in Alvin and that moisture is going to be sucked up into the SW and further up into the Plains and eventually some of that DNA will move East with the flow.

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes do not exist so chasers can chase them, they provide deep tropical moisture up into areas that often need it for American's growing season... farms receive nourishing rain. That's why we are a top grain producer and have an abundance of fresh food. Not all countries are so lucky! But as they are there.........therefore we chase, we track and we talk about them.

Going wider..........

Let's break this down into parts. Alvin is Stage Left...waiting in the wings to do it's thing! The reason it most likely will stay at TS status is wind shear that can be seen pulling the tops of it's clouds off into the BOC.

Center Stage you see fronts moving across the USA on their way eventually into the Atlantic. Sometimes a strong low flares up once into the water, but that's foreshadowing what may or may not happen down the road. In the Caribbean you can see the clouds from 8:30 to 2:30 as the clock goes pulling apart, shredding waves that are trying to get into the Carib. Further East what we call Stage Right there are more tropical waves moving Westbound despite heavy Saharan Dust in the MDR (Main Development Region) before they get sheared at the entrance to the Caribbean. June in 2 days is not totally too soon, but definitely Mother Nature isn't making it easy.

Again the formula for formation... cut down to basics ....for tropical development.

Warm water is needed it's fuel for formation.

Rain aka Convection is needed.

Low Pressure that forms from the heavy convection often is the beginning.

Tropical Waves carry convection and lower pressures moving into an area for favorable development!.

Base of old fronts that go dead in tropical waters giving new life to a tropical low that can form there.

What stops storms from forming?

Cooler Water

Dry Air

Wind Shear.

Saharan Dust and or smoke from huge fires....

Those are the factors that work against tropical development.

Some feel the MJO is a game changer. More on that tomorrow.

Basically the MJO moves along across Planet Earth and when it gets into our tropics formation is easier.

June is often too soon for tropical waves to become Beryl, but hey it can happen. June is often home grown, close in storms that form from left over tropical waves or old frontal boundaries and suddenly swirl close in and sometimes can become hurricanes.

Good colorful map. Easy to understand.

Note the Gulf & the Gulfstream generate formation.

Look how tightly they are clustered there.

A few out in the Atlantic somewhere farther away.

A few African Tropical Waves got some early fame!!

Where do they go?

@iCyclone put up a map on X today. A good map!

Note the hurricanes to the East... go East.

Often a late season cold front grabs it...

...or the High suddenly pulls East.

Allowing it to trace the High Pressure.

On the left you can see where others go.

Stronger High.

Some move North towards old fronts.

Some get pushed West by a strong High.

And, yes we used to get June Hurricanes.

June Tropical Storms are more common.

Again...fun to watch African Waves

But most June systems form close in!

As for down the short term road.

Another EPAC system should form.

This would be NEXT week!

Same spot.

When you're hot you're hot!

Atlantic is not.....

SAL owns the MDR

The High edges into the Gulf.

But models change from day to day.

Generally when things are spinning in the EPAC in early June, our side of the world is a bit quieter. You can usually count a week to ten days and see development in the Carib/Gulf. Much depends on the High Pressure and SAL that's usually King of the Tropical Road in June! Why the rhyme goes June too soon.

The MJO travels East into the Carib and when that happens in a week or so we will know if that will help provide a spark to light the fire. The water may be hot, but hot water alone doesn't make a hurricane as I said up above.

Have a good day!

Get a plan!

Buy canned fruit, chicken, tuna and vegetables. When the power is out and the food in the fridge has gone rotten you will thank me. Oh, and buy a hand can opener or spend the extra money for those pull top cans. Obviously water, first aid supplies, batteries for an old battery operated radio or one you might want to buy on Amazon soon. Have extra meds on hand. Stores close. Pharmacies close. Life isn't normal for a long, long time. Old timers know. Ask a local old timer. And speaking of things not being normal for a long time. Mike showed this image from this week..........now...........current image and things on the Gulf Coast have not totally been cleaned up yet from Helene and Milton last year. Again I said "nothing is normal for a long time" and even if you have a generator there are no street lights, no street signs and takes a store a good week to restock produce at Publix after the power goes on. That's why I say.......buy canned food! Beef Jerky works too!