Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, June 16, 2024

2 Areas Trying to Get the Name Alberto... and/or Beryl. Does BOC Get a Storm But Why Does the Rain Go to Texas??? Hmmn Hasn't Formed Yet. Models Haven't Nailed It Down Yet. And, Does Yellow Area Off FL Form & Make Landfall?


Gonna lead with this thought....
...before I put up the NHC image for the 7 day.

60% chance in 7 days of something in BOC*
30% something off FL coast forms in 7 day.
Again nothing there - hasn't formed yet.

The problem with early June systems in the GOM/BOC is that often a small center can form and hook into Mexico and displaced rain far to the North where the flow sets up an atmospheric river into an area far from the center of possibly Alberto. I say possibly, as it may not form so quick and the area off the Florida coast may slide in with a name first by way of a very, small, closed Low that gets a name and some fame for making landfall anywhere from Georgia to SFL with the current concern being Jax to the Cape... Daytona perhaps. Hard to say, it hasn't formed yet, and to complicate matters there are a multitude of squiggly circle areas that could become the center if and when it forms. Will the real center stand up? As for the Orange X over the Yucatan remember it's over the Yucatan and still a crap shoot as to what happens but I'll stand by the thought that there has been a possible area near the Yucatan for days so timing here is important. 

What is most important today is where the rain goes and who gets the deluge of rain this coming week. South Florida would like to be exempt from this one and as it shows above the coast of GOM shows high rain totals. That's the 7 day projected rain totals, yet most models keep the "center" far to the South so again we have the same set up South Florida endured but aimed around the Houston area that again like S FL has geographic issues and it was built in a Bayou and bayou areas are prone to tremendously, difficult flooding episodes and you don't need it to be a Major Hurricane to get that set up going.  There's a lil bitty purple near Florida and that could be from our lil bitty low that tries to form. I can't make jokes without reminding you all that previous models took this lil closed Low (TD perhaps) straight across N Florida into the GOM and developed it some and slid into home base (second landfall)  along the coastal cities of the Gulf of Mexico. That has happened before then a huge high oversteps it's boundaries and propells a system West into said GOM and no not going to name any offenders but Katrina formed off the SFL coast from a mix up of two systems and moved into GOM and yet remember that was late AUGUST not June too soon but it feels like July. 

Point is ... apparently nothing is totally off the table this coming week or two. 

Our multiple day grid is playing it coy.
It's not ready to bite with anyone scenario.

Our Tropical Musical Artist Dabuh below.

Again every model changes on every run.
Sometimes they seem to agree.
Then they agree to disagree again.

There's no there there yet.

My thoughts:

I've mentioned this online and people always ask what I mean ... 
When there's a High above ... a huge "death ridge" high as some call it....
Sometimes a low pressure area forms to the South of it and the high forces it to make it's move.

There is often some game changer set up that's an oddball like set up and the set up produces an early named June storm or Tropical Depression. 

We can watch tropical waves from Africa for days, weeks and we can watch Central American Gyre for days or weeks and nothing seems to form even though the water is hot and the shear relatively low. And, then some set up in the atmosphereic flow pops up and forces something to form fast and be slung shot somewhere towards landfall. It's easier to tell you in September where a tropical wave off of Africa will end up down to a 200 mile area on the East Coast or GOM as it's rolling over Dakar yet way harder to figure out what is going to happen off the coast of Florida this coming Wednesday.

Why could this verify?
1. Note the huge high to the North.
2. If anything tries to form (brick red color)  it's blocked from going anyway but West.
3. There's lots of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico... lows go towards lows.
4. Rain may be the name of the game even if we have an Alberto officially.

If you live in Houston or any Texas beach city (or inland near that city) prepare for the random possibility you will be getting rain. As for whatever does or doesn't hit Florida or Georgia... not talking wild hurricane but you may get a real tropical surprise. 

Have a good day. Keep putting together a Hurricane Kit. Enjoy your father or memories of your father. We all had fathers had some point, learn to forgive and forget bad memories and know that we all get both good and bad genes and many of us have some great genes from our father. Many of us have had an Uncle who was more like a father or grandfather or a stepfather and some were lucky to learn something important from all of them. Do what you love today....... that's what I got to say.

2024 promises to be a problematic hurricane season with tricky scenarios and hurricanes that may have a need to make landfall and we can't ignore that so do what you got to do. By the way "do what you gotta do" was one of my father's favorite sayings. That's probably how I ended up in North Carolina ... I decided to do what I got to do at the time and hoped it worked out and go figure it did; been in NC for 15 years now, more if you add in the year I went back and forth nonstop and now I go back and forth nonstop to Miami to touch "home base" and see the kids, grandkids and friends who are like family.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
You can worry on Alberto tomorrow........

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps I'll say one thing here and that's that I love this time of year where I can talk to my friends endlessly on the possibilities .... and there's always a possibility living in NC where I can go down to the coast and feel the named storm up close and personal if everything aligns just right.

So much said with a few posts .... talking with "Content Wx Guy" is like a class in meteorology if you pay attention to the maps and the words, words and maps make a great combination.

What people need to learn is this...'s all about the set up.
When a center forms somewhere.... follows the set up in the atmosphere.
That's why we wait for a center to form.

June brings tropical discussion more than named storms.
And, I do love tropical discussion.

In the tropics it's all about the set up.
like the base vs the treble 

Ps check out her new song.
Cute. Just doesn't fit the blog today!


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